It’s long been assumed that Donald Trump is Russian president Vladimir Putin’s preferred opposite number in Washington. So it might come as a surprise to learn that the discussion in the Kremlin this morning has been whether or not Putin should congratulate the new president-elect on his victory at all.
Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters he had no idea whether the president planned to send his regards to Trump. Whether or not he did, Peskov said, would have little difference: ‘It is practically impossible to make things worse; relations are historically at their lowest point.’ America, he reminded the press pack, was still an ‘unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state’. Nevertheless, he said, they would wait and see what happens in January.
For all of Trump’s boasts and promises, no one truly knows what he has in store for Ukraine
The Kremlin’s hostility and suspicion towards Trump may come as an unwelcome surprise for the president-elect. But that’s not to say that the Kremlin isn’t watching and taking note. Picking up on Trump’s promise to ‘stop wars’ in his victory speech overnight, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called on Trump to follow this up with ‘concrete actions’.
Over the past year, the Kremlin has been at pains to insist that, in the new multipolar world of their making, the US presidential election has no bearing on what they do. Speaking yesterday, Zakharova claimed that ‘Russia does not care how these elections end’. But frankly, this is hard to believe. It certainly didn’t stop Moscow from attempting a bit of meddling while the vote was taking place: bomb hoaxes traced by the FBI back to Russia targeted the five key swing states of Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. As a result, two polling stations in the Atlanta area of Georgia were forced to close for a short while.
The fate of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has for some time been inextricably linked with the outcome of last night’s vote in America. Throughout his election campaign, the president-elect repeatedly boasted of being able to end the war in ‘24 hours’. He also claimed that he’d ‘encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want’ to Nato members who failed to pay their way on defence spending.
Nearly three years into a war that was supposed to take three days, Putin is well aware that he has a higher chance of ending his invasion of Ukraine on favourable terms with Trump once again in the White House. Peskov said as much today: ‘Since it is the United States…that is directly involved in it, then yes, the United States is capable of changing this trajectory of its foreign policy.’
But for all of Trump’s boasts and promises, no one truly knows what he has in store for Ukraine. If the fears of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his western allies come to pass, there is every chance Trump could cut aid to Ukraine, shrink or withdraw America from the Nato alliance and even attempt to strike a deal with Russia over Kyiv’s head that attempts to force Zelensky to sign away land currently occupied by Putin’s troops. Or not.
Either way, any hope Kyiv may have had of kickstarting a fresh round of negotiations on their future with Russia at the table have gone up in smoke after last night. Putin won’t be running to meet with Zelensky and Biden before January, that much is certain.
That’s not to say that Trump will necessarily be able to fulfil his promise (or threat, depending on what side you’re on) of ending the war in Ukraine with ease. Putin has sunk everything into his invasion of Ukraine – and grows ever more resentful of the influence America and its president has on the world stage, regardless of who occupies the White House. As the hours tick by, Putin’s silence on Trump’s victory speaks volumes.
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