Why Israel probably won’t bomb Iran during the transition

There is a lot of chatter at the moment about the idea that Israel might use the gap between the US elections in November and the inauguration of a new president in January to strike a blow against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But as Bob Kaplan points out there is a good reason to think this probably won’t happen:

There is a problem, though. Violating, say, Jordanian or Turkish airspace is not really the issue. The issue is that largely because of the on-going Iraq war, the U. S. controls the airspace over the entry points to Iran: in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf. Thus, an Israeli attack on Iran could probably only happen with U. S. connivance. And even if Israel could evade American sensors, few would believe that it honestly did so. As a sort of a last hurrah, one might speculate that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney would let Israel bomb Iran with a wink and a nod. But I do not believe that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates would do so. And because Gates has emerged as such a critical cabinet member, beloved by both the Pentagon staff and by the media, his word would be crucial.

Gates has shepherded Iraq from nearly a lost cause to a cause that might yet be salvaged. And an Israeli attack on Iran, precisely because it could not occur without both the fact and the appearance of U. S. support, could unleash a fury of Iran-supported bombings inside Iraq. No, Gates would not be on board for an Israeli strike.

Bottom line: precisely because the U. S. dominates the airspace around Iran, it has checkmated itself. Israel will find it very hard to pull America’s chestnuts out of the fire in Iran. An Israeli attack is, in the last analysis, still unlikely. The problem of a nuclear Iran is far from being solved.
 
I do, though, think that the Israelis will be watching very carefully when the Iranians, test, as they surely will, the new president. If they see weakness or vacillation in the response, they will be more inclined to deal with the Iranian threat themselves rather than waiting for a time of America’s choosing.