The last twenty four hours have been a reminder of David Cameron’s poise as a national leader. He has the ability to project a sense of resolve and calm.
Before this vile attack in Woolwich, all the talk in Westminster was of Cameron’s difficult relationship with his own party. Despite a fortnight of good economic news, the headlines were all about Tory tensions over Europe and splits over gay marriage.
To many Tories, including some Cabinet ministers, it feels horribly like the 1990s all over again. But there are two crucial differences with then. First, there’s been no Black Wednesday. However far off his deficit reduction plan he may be, George Osborne has never been forced to admit his economic policy is wrong. This means that the coalition has a good chance of claiming credit for the recovery that appears to be, finally under way. Second, there’s no Tony Blair on the scene. Not only was Blair an immensely talented politician but he was also prepared to close down Tory advantages. Labour’s 1997 manifesto committed to matching Tory spending plans for the first two years, not putting up either the basic or higher rate of income tax, and to holding a referendum before trying to enter the single currency. By contrast, Ed Miliband wants to win a mandate to govern in a distinctly Labour manner. He won’t match Tory pledges on spending, welfare and a Europe referendum.
In the magazine this week, I argue that this means that a Tory defeat at the next election is far from inevitable. But it will become so if the Tories continue to publicly parade their divisions.
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