Katy Balls Katy Balls

Why Jeremy Corbyn won’t back a second referendum yet

Jeremy Corbyn has come under pressure this week to back a second referendum after a YouGov poll found that seven in ten Labour members wish for it to be party policy. So far, Corbyn has resisted such calls for a so-called People’s Vote. In this week’s Spectator, I explain why the Labour leader is reluctant to go near one – at least for the time being.

With the Tories in turmoil over Brexit, it’s quite possible — some cabinet members believe probable — that the government may soon collapse with a new general election called. This is Labour’s great hope – and Corbyn hopes to trigger a snap poll by defeating the government in a confidence motion after the meaningful vote. However, in order to make the most of such an opportunity – whether it is this year or in two years’ time – Labour must also get through Brexit without fatally wounding the party’s electoral chances in the process.

While party members and many Labour MPs have their hearts set on a second referendum to stop Brexit, a number of Corbyn’s advisers believe this would badly hurt Labour’s electoral chances by alienating towns that voted heavily to leave, such as Mansfield, where the Tories had a surprise victory in the snap election. Winning support in Leave towns is seen as crucial for winning a Labour majority.

Internal Labour polling also suggests that there is no huge appetite for a second referendum among the population at large. Instead, the overall feeling is one of apathy and ennui. Focus groups in the Midlands — an area with numerous swing seats and several Labour marginals with two-figure majorities — found even Remain voters sceptical of the idea of a People’s Vote.

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