President-elect Donald Trump is poised to claim his first major foreign policy achievement just days before his inauguration on Monday. If no last-minute obstacles arise, a long-anticipated hostage deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could take effect as soon as this Sunday. But while Trump will emerge victorious from this situation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, will find himself humiliated and defeated.
For nearly a year, fearing the collapse of his right-wing coalition, Netanyahu has worked hard to prevent the deal from concluding, using all sorts of excuses and hoping that Hamas would eventually derail it and be blamed for it. This has not happened. Hamas said on Thursday that they are committed to the deal brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar.
The only leader in the world that Netanyahu fears is Trump
The conclusion of this hostage deal would see the 15-month long war in Gaza come to an end, the exchange of 98 hostages and 1,000 Palestinians convicted by Israeli military courts as terrorists, the withdrawal of Israeli troops and return of displaced Palestinians.
This ceasefire and the exchanges are expected to happen across three stages. The first stage would last six weeks, and 33 hostages held by Hamas, including women, the elderly and the sick, would be released. An Israeli government press officer said that most but not all of the 33 hostages – which include children – were thought to still be alive. In return, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be too. According to sources close to the security services, about 190 of those Palestinians are serving sentences of 15 years or more, for committing horrendous murderous crimes.
Stage two would be ‘a permanent end to the war’ and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The remaining living hostages, including men, would be released in return for more Palestinian prisoners. The third and final stage would involve the reconstruction of Gaza – which could take years – and the return of any remaining hostages’ bodies.
Trump has threatened on several occasions that if the hostages were not released by the time of his inauguration, all hell would break loose. Most Israeli politicians and pundits interpreted this as a threat against Hamas. But in reality, Trump has very few levers of pressure on Hamas. What can he really do to them? Send American soldiers to fight? Clearly not. Moreover, the IDF has already flattened and destroyed significant parts of Gaza, killed tens of thousands of militants and civilians, including children and women, leaving little for the Americans to do.
The main leverage that the US has over Hamas is to pressure Qatar, with more threats than the outgoing administration of Joe Biden applied. However, even the incoming Trump administration has limited influence over the gas emirate, which aligns with the Muslim Brotherhood, funds Hamas, and hosts its leaders. The US still has vital interests in Qatar that it does not wish to jeopardise: a large American military base, strategically important in the fight against Iran and for monitoring shipping and oil routes in the Gulf. It is therefore clear that the fires of hell Trump threatened to unleash if the deal did not go through were directed mostly at Netanyahu.
The only leader in the world that Netanyahu fears is Trump. They do not like each other; only natural for two narcissists. Matters of pride and ego play a significant role for both, and Trump’s ego is far greater. Trump has, in the past, spoken dismissively of the Israeli Prime Minister – for example after Netanyahu backed out of his promise at the last minute that Israel would participate in the operation to eliminate Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Trump also has not forgotten that Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his election as president, even though Netanyahu did so reluctantly.
President-elect Trump is an unpredictable leader, both in his personal conduct and in his foreign policy. He would have no problem translating his personal anger into sanctions on Israel, including a ban on arms sales or a reduction in military aid, even though most of his advisors are staunch supporters of Israel.
Netanyahu is well aware of all this. As such, he finds himself in a bind between the threats of his right wing ministers to quit his government and those of Trump. He clearly understands that Trump’s potential to cause damage with his threats of hell breaking loose are greater than those of his Minister of National Security Itamat Ben Gvir.
The tragedy is that the deal that most probably will be secured on Sunday could have been concluded about six months ago. For many months, Netanyahu accused Hamas of being the stumbling block to clinch the deal. But now Ben Gvir proudly boasted that he took advantage of Netanyahu’s’ fear to prevent the release of his own Israeli citizens. Over these six lost months, more than 50 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza and around 30 hostages either executed in captivity or killed by IDF fire, not to mention the thousands of Palestinians also killed.
It’s clear that Netanyahu can’t afford to humiliate Trump, especially before his inauguration – as such, we can expect the deal to be implemented. While Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners – Ben Gvir and Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich – may vote against the deal, the majority of his ministers and members of parliament, including those from the opposition, will approve it.
Still, the big uncertainty is whether Netanyahu’s radicals will quit his coalition, and thus force the collapse of his government, which will lead to an early election. According to public opinion polls conducted over the last year, Netanyahu, who faces three corruption trials, has very little chance of being re-elected, let alone forming a coalition.
For Israel’s right-wing radicals, teaming up with Netanyahu is a dream. They know that they will not have a better, more appeasing government. But they are also attentive to their constituents who oppose any hostage or ceasefire deal and are committed to their ideologies. For this reason, it will be ironic if Ben Gvir, in his capacity as minister in charge of the prisoner’s service, will be forced to release Palestinian terrorists.
This hostage deal, struck under Trump’s thunderous eye, will firmly contradict Theodore Roosevelt’s maxim: ‘Speak softly and carry a big stick.’ Netanyahu and his radicals loudly proclaim inflammatory slogans such as ‘We will never surrender to terrorists’, especially those with ‘blood on their hands’, yet their actions tell a different story. Hundreds of Palestinians involved in heinous acts of terror are now set to be released.
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