Andrew Green

Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

Yesterday came the news that net migration has once again fallen, this time to its lowest level for ten years. In the year ending September 2012, net migration was 153,000. That is a fall of 89,000 on the previous year when it reached a dizzy 242,000.

This is undeniably good news. The public have consistently shown their desire to see net migration reduced and we now have a government which is committed to lowering net migration and has so far had considerable success.

Many on the left, who cannot bring themselves to admit that net migration of 200,000 per year is too much for a small island such as ours, continue to perpetuate the idea that, in the process of reducing net migration the government is harming the economy. Fortunately for the rest of us, there is very little evidence to back this up. It is high time that was made clear.

For three consecutive quarters, Sarah Mulley of the IPPR has tried to suggest that falling net migration is the result of a reduction in international students which is not only harming the UK economy but will also prove to be ultimately futile since fewer students arriving means fewer students leaving in the future. See herehere and here.

Once again, we find ourselves explaining why the IPPR is wrong.

As a rule a reduction in inflows will lead to a reduction in outflows further down the line as there will be fewer people to leave. However, this argument makes a significant and incorrect assumption when applied to the reduction in students witnessed over the last year or so – that all of those students who have been prevented from arriving in the UK would have left at the end of their course, which is of course incorrect.

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