Why Putin still needs Wagner

It will be a matter of deep regret for Vladimir Putin that, in the wake of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated attempt to overthrow Russia’s military establishment, he has finally been forced to come clean about the Kremlin’s association with the Wagner Group. Deniability is a vital facet for a veteran spook like Putin. Even when Wagner’s band of mercenary cut-throats were spearheading the assault on the east Ukrainian city of Bakhmut earlier this year, the Russian leader rebutted claims of Prigozhin’s involvement. ‘He runs a restaurant business, it is his job – he is a restaurant keeper in St Petersburg,’ Putin told Austrian television.

But while Wagner may no longer be able to give Putin the ability to deny his involvement in overseas adventures, he will be reluctant to wind up its global aspirations. For all of Prigozhin’s antics, Wagner gives Putin two precious attributes beyond Ukraine’s battle-fields: influence in foreign conflicts and a lucrative revenue stream.

Putin’s reliance on Wagner has stemmed from his suspicions that he could not rely on Russia’s military establishment to do his bidding. These reservations first manifested themselves in 2015 after Putin decided to intervene militarily in the Syrian civil war to keep the country’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in power and safeguard Moscow’s military bases at Tartus and Latakia. While general Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s armed forces, was prepared to support the operation, he was insistent that no Russian ground forces be involved. A compromise was reached whereby the Russian military provided air power and Wagner mercenaries were deployed on the ground in support of the Syrian forces. The combination suited both parties, as no one in Russia was unduly concerned if Wagner mercenaries suffered heavy losses.

The success of this war-fighting paradigm in Syria has led to the deployment of Wagner forces to other parts of the Middle East and Africa as part of Putin’s ambitious plan to expand Russian influence in the region.