Katy Balls Katy Balls

Why senior Conservatives are talking about a Brexit extension

Will the UK have left the EU by October 31st? At the Conservative party conference, ministers, MPs and activists are keen to repeat the event slogan: ‘Get Brexit done’. However, many are unsure as to when exactly Brexit will get done. Johnson has promised to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October “do or die” – he has repeatedly said “extension means extinction” for the Tories. But with parliament passing legislation to try to force him to seek an extension, and opposition MPs refusing him an election until that extension is secured, senior Conservatives are starting to contemplate a world in which Brexit isn’t done at the end of October.

Whether a deal is on the cards will be known in the near future as Downing Street prepares to unveil its offer to Brussels. However, ministers and MPs see agreeing a deal with the EU as unlikely. “I give it a one in three chance,” says a government minister keen for a Brexit deal. Even Johnson, normally the biggest optimist in the room, is viewed to be relatively downbeat about the chances by members of his cabinet – with the prime minister playing down the chances of a deal during a cabinet conference call last week.

What’s more, Conservative MPs who represent marginal Brexit-backing seats worry that an attempt to pass a Brexit deal in the next few weeks could backfire on them at the ballot box. While Tory MPs believe that recent rhetoric from No 10 about the Benn bill being the “surrender bill” has cut through with leave voters, they worry that an attempt to pass a deal similar to the withdrawal agreement could backfire. The Tory worry is that Johnson will go all out to sell a small change to the withdrawal agreement as a big win and then fail to get it through parliament.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in