The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election is a big test for Labour

Another week, another by-election. Constituents in Margaret Ferrier’s seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West have voted for their MP to be removed from her seat after she was suspended from the Commons for 30 days after being convicted of breaking travel rules during lockdown. Following the rule breach, Ferrier was also ousted by the SNP, and has since sat as an independent. 

More than 10 per cent of eligible voters signed the recall petition, and a by-election will now follow. Ferrier first won the seat for the SNP in 2015 before Scottish Labour took it back in 2017. In 2019, she reclaimed it, with a majority of 5,000. It means both the SNP and Scottish Labour have an imperative to win the by-election in the Greater Glasgow seat. It will be viewed as a bellwether on the strength of the Scottish Labour recovery. A recent Panelbase poll predicted that Labour is on course to defeat the SNP at the next general election, win 26 MPs and become Scotland’s largest party in Westminster. A failure to take this historically Labour seat would suggest this prediction is wide of the mark.

It remains to be seen how much Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will want Keir Starmer out there on the campaign trail with him. The Labour leader has already visited Scotland seven times this year and the pair enjoy a good working relationship. However, they have recently had policy disagreements over Starmer’s insistence in keeping the two-child benefit cap (the SNP has tried to weaponise this) and on his plan to bring an end to new oil and gas licences. 

Either way, figures in the Leader’s Office will be closely watching the result. As I previously said in The Spectator, part of the reason Starmer’s team were so triumphant after May’s local elections – despite not getting the national poll swing required to guarantee a majority – is a belief that gains in Scotland mean they would still win a general election outright. Winning 20 seats north of the border is viewed as the difference between a majority and a hung parliament.