The SNP has spent a lot of time and energy in recent years telling voters in Scotland there’s no difference between the Labour and Conservative parties. Arrant nonsense, of course, but there’s a market for that sort of thing among the nationalists’ more excitable supporters, many of whom happily buy into the idea of Labour as ‘red Tories’.
There is, however, an inconsistency to the SNP’s line of attack. Each time a General Election rumbles into view, the nationalists may be depended upon to recognise differences between its Unionist opponents. Generally, this manifests itself as talk about which party it would be willing to support in the event the election resulted in a hung parliament.
The SNP is consistent on this: there could never be a deal with the Tories (the SNP pretends it didn’t depend on an informal arrangement with the Conservatives to govern as a minority administration in the Scottish Parliament between 2007-2011) but the party would be amenable to an agreement to put Labour in power.
A key SNP argument is that voting for them is the only way to rid Scotland of Tory influence
The price for this theoretical support has, in general elections since 2015, been the right to hold a second independence referendum. Now the SNP has added to its list of demands. If Keir Starmer’s Labour party comes up short in the next election and he wishes to be prime minister, the SNP will support him so long as he permits another referendum and commits to ‘undo Brexit as far as possible’, according to the party’s MP Alyn Smith. ‘The SNP would also push for the UK to rejoin Erasmus and Horizon Europe, and defend the European Court of Justice, while ensuring Scotland has the power to escape Brexit entirely with independence,’ Smith added.
The SNP’s core supporters love this sort of thing. The idea of their party directing traffic at Westminster is irresistible. But the SNP’s hand is far from being as strong as they’d have us believe.
Let’s say that Starmer does end up leader of the largest party but shy of a majority. Would he have to give the SNP anything? No, he would not.
For one thing, he’d go to the Liberal Democrats first. But even if an agreement with Ed Davey didn’t create a majority, Starmer could still tell the nationalists to whistle for their referendum and their Brexit rollback. What, after all, would the SNP do if he wouldn’t play ball? Would the nationalists really open the door to another Tory government? No, they would not for to do so would horrify even their most dedicated supporters.
But, then, this latest drive by the SNP isn’t really about outlining what the party would do as Kingmakers, it’s about winding up voters in England.
This is the nats’ version of those old Tory campaign posters showing Ed Miliband sitting snugly in Alex Salmond’s breast pocket. The SNP would very much like voters south of Gretna Green to know that they stand ready to cause maximum chaos if they’re given the chance.
A key SNP argument is that voting for them is the only way to rid Scotland of Tory influence. This is why the SNP would very much like the Tories to win the next General Election.
If – as looks entirely likely – Labour wins, the nationalists’ argument that only independence can liberate Scots from the malign influence of distant Conservatives falls apart. Many SNP politicians may despise the Tories. But they also desperately need them.
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