They are the words Humza Yousaf has been dreading: Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. South Lanarkshire Council confirmed yesterday afternoon that Margaret Ferrier, the incumbent MP, has been recalled by her constituents via petition. Ferrier was elected as an SNP MP but now sits as an independent after admitting that she travelled between London and Scotland on public transport having tested positive for Covid-19. She is currently serving a Commons suspension for these actions.
The by-election will be a major test for the First Minister and a chance to put his nightmare first four months behind him — or extend the agony, if his party loses the seat. Rutherglen and Hamilton West used to be Lanarkshire Labour heartlands, redder than a pillar box. In 2010, the last election before the SNP’s 2015 landslide, Labour won the seat with 61 per cent of the vote. It was one of a handful the party managed to claw back from the SNP in 2017, though it promptly lost it again in 2019.
Starmer still doesn’t seem to get Scotland
While the Ferrier issue looms large, the significance of Rutherglen and Hamilton West goes beyond an MP’s idiocy and her constituents’ frustration. As a constituency, it is a cross-section of all the key demographics the SNP has brought into its big tent: social and rented housing and new-build estates; the working poor and the lower middle class; retail workers and tradesmen as well as sales and admin staff. This is the sort of seat the SNP has to be able to hang onto if it wants to avoid a punishing night come the next general election. The result will be read as an indication of which way the wind is blowing in Glasgow and the West of Scotland, where many of Labour’s target seats lie.
Also being measured up will be Labour. The party’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar has done a power of work dragging the party out of the political doldrums but the proof of his effectiveness is whether he can reclaim ex-Labour seats from the Nationalists. An SNP hold would give Scottish Labour some pause, especially given the reason for the by-election. It will be interesting to see how often Sir Keir Starmer is wheeled out. He still doesn’t seem to get Scotland and is as awkward north of the border as you might expect a very London lawyer to be. That doesn’t make him a liability, though. Scots didn’t line the streets for Tony Blair but they certainly voted for him.
The SNP is defending a majority of just over 5,000, or ten per cent of the vote, so there isn’t much padding to allow for their voters switching to Labour or staying at home. Retaining the seat will require keeping the Salmond-Sturgeon era voter coalition together and convincing those who historically supported Labour that Sir Keir is not the man to return to the fold for. This one’s going to be a proper battle.
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