Why the Tory lead is growing

With the Tories back up to a ten-point lead in the YouGov/Sunday Times poll, it seems that – as James put it yesterday – the ‘big mo’ is with them. David Cameron is about to survive his third political near-death experience: the first being his leadership campaign and the second the election-that-never-was in 2007. This demonstrates Cameron’s extraordinary recovery capacity – but also an unfortunate habit of blowing opinion poll leads. It’s a habit that I hope he has now kicked: the elastic on his political bungee may snap if he tries another dive before the election. So it’s time to ask: what went wrong? And what went right?
 
Both should be painfully clear by now. I say in my News of the World column today, “Detect a trend yet? If the Tories say “we’re shiny and modern!” no one cares. When they cut taxes, people listen. It’s not rocket science.