Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why the Tory lead is growing

With the Tories back up to a ten-point lead in the YouGov/Sunday Times poll, it seems that – as James put it yesterday – the ‘big mo’ is with them. David Cameron is about to survive his third political near-death experience: the first being his leadership campaign and the second the election-that-never-was in 2007. This demonstrates Cameron’s extraordinary recovery capacity – but also an unfortunate habit of blowing opinion poll leads. It’s a habit that I hope he has now kicked: the elastic on his political bungee may snap if he tries another dive before the election. So it’s time to ask: what went wrong? And what went right?
 
Both should be painfully clear by now. I say in my News of the World column today, “Detect a trend yet? If the Tories say “we’re shiny and modern!” no one cares. When they cut taxes, people listen. It’s not rocket science. People will vote for the party that makes life better for them. End of story.” When the party focuses on image, it’s at its worst. While important, image does not win elections. When it makes itself useful – by saying “you will be better-off under us” – it captures voters’ imagination. Labour, which is institutionally  greedy for other people’s money, cannot match such a pledge. A tax cut, even a teeny one like the £150/year National Insurance tax cut* crystalises the difference between the two parties. If any CoffeeHousers know any Tory candidates, they will have heard what a difference this makes in the doorsteps. Being able to say “you will be better off” earns you a hearing.

What we saw last week is the Tory party shaking off the last pieces of shrapnel of the Tory Wars.

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