Why this election campaign makes me fear for the future of the United Kingdom

After the Scottish referendum campaign, the Union could probably have done with a period of calm. But it is not going to get it. Who gets to form a government at Westminster after the next election could turn on what happens in Scotland and how many seats the SNP wins. This fact is making both Labour and the Tories behave in ways that are damaging to the Union. Jim Murphy, the new leader of Scottish Labour, has decided to try and show that he is prepared to pick fights with London too, in the hope that will take some of the wind out of the Nationalists’ sales. Hence his deliberately provocative boast that via the mansion tax Labour would ‘tax houses in London and the South East to pay for 1,000 new nurses in the Scottish NHS. It’s a real win-win for Scotland.’ While the Tories are busy warning that the SNP could end up putting Miliband in power against England’s wishes. This is designed to play on English resentments and if it has any effect north of the border, it is to boost the SNP. We don’t yet know how successful these respective Labour and Tory tactics will be. But it seems depressingly safe to conclude that they will chip away at support for the Union south of the border at a time when the SNP, a party intent on the break-up of the UK, look like winning a majority of Westminster seats north of the border. ​

Join us on 23 March for a Spectator discussion on whether the era of stable government is over with Matthew Parris, James Forsyth, Jeremy Browne MP, Vernon Bogdanor and Matthew Goodwin. The event will be chaired by Andrew Neil. In association with Seven Investment Management. For tickets and further information click here.