Long to reign over us? That’s the question Conservative MPs are pondering this weekend about their leader Boris Johnson. The boos and jeers that greeted him at St Paul’s on Friday were in stark contrast to the warmth and affection exhibited towards the Queen all week. It’s prompted several nervy Tories to consider putting in their letter of no-confidence to Sir Graham Brady – the chairman of the 1922 committee – amid much talk about whether the magic threshold of 54 letters has finally been reached. It has previously been suggested that Sir Graham would not make such an announcement until after the Jubilee festivities had concluded. Will tomorrow be that day?
Timing is everything in politics: some of the anti-Johnsonites fear that a vote will come too soon. With 359 sitting Conservative MPs, it would take 181 votes to unseat him as PM. If the rebels got 133 votes, that would be worse as a percentage than Theresa May managed in 2018; if they got 147 that would be worse than Margaret Thatcher got against Michael Heseltine in 1990. Some, therefore, think that a challenge to Johnson should only come after the Wakefield and Tiverton by-elections on 23 June.
That fateful day – exactly six years since the Brexit referendum vote – will see the Tories try to retain a Red Wall marginal and a true blue safe seat against a challenge from Labour and the Lib Dems, respectively. To lose one seat may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like a catastrophe. Polling in the Sunday Times suggests that Labour are on course to win Wakefield with an impressive 48 per cent with the Tories expected to take just 28 per cent – down 19 points from 2019.
Frenzied speculation fills the Sunday papers about the pretenders to Johnson’s crown. Various names are being suggested from the One Nation caucus, including Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat; Tim Shipman quotes one critic of Penny Mordaunt as saying she is ‘Steve Baker in a dress’ and has ‘all the qualities of leadership except followers’. Whatever happens this week, don’t expect the drama to come to an end anytime soon: the Sun reports that Sir Graham has taken soundings on axing the one-year limit on new no-confidence votes in Johnson. And the Mail on Sunday claims that rebels are threatening to obstruct key parliamentary votes even if the PM survives a no-confidence ballot.
Regicide, plotting and an imminent civil war – what better way to mark a Jubilee?
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