Will Boris Johnson’s Brexit offer lead to a deal?

The UK government has now published its Brexit offer to the EU. It has put out a letter from Boris Johnson to Jean-Claude Juncker making the case for its backstop replacement and a briefing note setting out how it would work. In essence, it puts a regulatory border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But the briefing notes sets out the British belief that a combination of technology and checks at traders’ premises would mean that there’d be no need for checks at—or near to—the border.

Northern Ireland’s continuing alignment with the EU on goods rules would require Stormont’s affirmative consent. This means that, because of the way power sharing works, if Unionists objected, Northern Ireland would simply become just like the rest of the UK when it came to alignment with EU rules. Dublin and the EU will object to this.