Ten years ago, the World Health Organisation issued a new definition of ‘pandemic’: a disease that infects a large number of people and spreads quickly across the world. These days, once the first of these criteria has been fulfilled, the second is generally just behind. Everything travels faster now: goods, services, diseases and — crucially — fear. As the number of Covid-19 cases rises, so too does the cost of our reaction to it: already as much as $1.5 trillion from cancelled flights, postponed orders and businesses shutting down — an inevitable outcome in our globalised, interconnected world.
A virus that germinated in Wuhan has led to the cancellation of this weekend’s rugby match between Italy and Ireland in Dublin. The Tokyo Olympics, London Marathon and Glastonbury festival could be next. Boris Johnson’s ‘battle plan’ to delay and mitigate the spread of coronavirus includes the possibility of no-go zones and bans on mass gatherings. Across the world, business trips and conferences are being cancelled, orders put on hold. But this isn’t just a critical moment for particular businesses, or even a particular country — it might prove to be a tipping point for globalisation itself.
For most of the past two decades, globalisation has been the norm — neither questioned nor contested by any of the world’s largest countries. It has been seen, in short, as the future. Increasing connectivity and expanding markets have made everyone richer. If you could drive costs down by making iPhones in China or by peeling Scottish langoustines in Thailand, why hesitate?
And it worked, for millions. Poverty plummeted, life expectancy soared. By buying cheaply, we shared our wealth. Who could object?
But globalisation also causes disruption. Automation, wage stagnation and the decline of traditional industries spoiled the party somewhat, as plenty of participants grew increasingly disgruntled about how they fared in the system.
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