Will Darling’s gamble pay off?

A good post by Nick Robinson, outlining the gambles that underpin Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report:

“What’s more the chancellor’s bet depends on other risky gambles. First, that the British economy will recover as early as the second half of next year. Second, that the government can deliver a major clampdown on spending and huge efficiency savings. Thirdly, that the electorate will support a significant rise in taxes targeted at the wealthy but which will hit those on middle incomes too.”

For me, it’s the first of these that represents the biggest – and riskiest – gamble.  The Treasury’s tax receipt and net borrowing figures always tend to be optimisitic.  The question now is whether they’re even more optimistic than usual – given that they’re most likely predicated on Darling’s claim that the economy will start recovering by the third quarter of 2009.