The financial crisis has pushed the Labour leadership down the headlines, but there does seem to be a new consensus emerging that, although Brown will not be forced out now, the last few days have made his departure in the near-future far more likely. It has certainly put more pressure on his conference speech and his much-hyped autumn fight-back.
The Glenrothes by-election is the next electoral test facing Labour and if Brown fails that, it could be the end. Jackie Ashley writes that:
“If Labour loses the coming Glenrothes byelection, key figures will go to him and say it’s all over. If he tried to hang on, I’m told, there would be cabinet resignations. This may seem a lot to hang on one byelection; Brown would doubtless say that governments have always had mid-term losses and gone on to recover.
But somehow Glenrothes seems to be the place where a last stand will happen.”What is certain is that it would be fatal for Labour to go on like this. Brown either needs to reassert his authority, and it is hard to see how he does this, or be ousted.
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