In 48 hours’ time, Mark Carney will make an intervention on Britain’s membership of the European Union. According to this morning’s newspapers, the Bank of England governor will deliver a speech on Wednesday evening at St Peter’s College, Oxford to ‘coincide with the release of a report into how Britain’s membership of the European Union affects the central bank’s ability to manage the economy, and how it affects its ability to protect the country’s biggest banks’, according to the Daily Telegraph.
That might sound as if Carney is going to deliver the findings of a pedestrian report, but given it has been briefed out to several newspapers, the Bank is clearly hoping everyone will be watching. Carney clearly isn’t going to say ‘Britain must stay in’ or ‘It’s time to give up on Brussels’ — his words will be more nuanced — but there is likely to be some hint as to whether he believes Britain will be better served one way or the other. Significantly, the FT reports that David Cameron has encouraged Carney to speak out ‘in a clear way’ on Britain’s EU membership — something he might have been reluctant to encourage it was thought the governor would talk up a Brexit.
Whether Carney is tilting In or Out, his words will be watched carefully by campaigners because they are likely to have resonance with voters. Forget June Sarpong or Richard Branson, Carney has a track record of influencing referendums. During the Scottish independence referendum last year, his speech arguing that a ‘currency union is incompatible’ with an independent Scotland was judged to be very influential in making up people’s minds. With little sign of progress from No.10 on the renegotiation and no confirmed date for the referendum in sight, the first big intervention from the City may be long forgotten by the time referendum day comes around in 2016 or 2017. Or it could help set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
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