Will Obama face McCain? We’ll know after Super Tuesday

If the Democrats vote with their heads on Super Tuesday — 5 February— Barack Obama will survive the Clinton assault and go on to become the party candidate in November. He already appeals strongly to Independents and Republicans. In Iowa, Obama won 44 per cent of the Republicans who shifted registration to take part in the Democratic caucus, and he won 41 per cent of Independents. Even though he lost in New Hampshire, he beat Clinton there among Independents by ten points. In South Carolina, Independent support is what drove up Obama’s numbers among whites. Furthermore, he does better in polls against every possible Republican opponent than Clinton does. This difference will only grow because even if Hillary Clinton holds off his challenge, she will enter the general election as a diminished figure because of the ugly way in which she has eked out her victory. If Obama defeats Clinton, he will emerge as a battle-hardened candidate who has survived the worst that one of the most formidable political machines ever assembled could throw at him.

At one point it looked as though the Republicans would lose all by themselves in 2008: both history and circumstances were against them. Only once since the war has a party managed to win the presidency after one of its members has served two full terms, and that was in 1988, after the most successful presidency of the modern era — Ronald Reagan’s. It will be a long time, if ever, before anyone lists George W. Bush’s presidency as a success. Meanwhile, conservatives seemed oblivious both to the stench of corruption surrounding their movement and how out of touch they were. But the Republican survival instinct has kicked in and they are set to nominate their strongest candidate, John McCain.

McCain has the most impressive biography of anyone running on either side.