One of the few history lessons I remember from primary school was how in medieval Scotland, condemned men could choose their executioner. I remember looking around and wondering which of my classmates would best finish me off quickly and painlessly. In my News of the World column today, I argue that Gordon Brown has revived this tradition by appointing Peter Mandelson. No more can you say the Labour rebellion is a shiver, looking for a spine to run down and no more will the likes of me moan about a spineless Cabinet. The Prince is back.
As Matt argues in the Sunday Telegraph today, this could all go badly wrong but the Tories should not discount the possibility of it going badly right. I agree, but my money is on it going badly wrong – and for the following reasons.
1. Brown only uses his friends. The Stephen Carter fiasco showed what happens when well-qualified outsiders are sent in to sharpen Brown operation. He doesn’t listen because his inner circle has hardly changed in ten years. He uses Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and the rest as much now as when they were his acolytes at the Treasury – even now that they have their own departments to run. Sure, Damian McBride has been sent to a forward planning operation. But even if he was selling ice cream on Westminster Bridge, Brown would still be calling him up and sending him on covert missions. McBride gave Brown consistently good service, and was moved, I suspect, because Mandy demanded it. Just as Blair couldn’t shake his addiction to Mandy – late night phone calls, texts etc – I’d be surprised if McBride gets to the end of this month (if not the end of the day) without a plaintive phone call from Brown. McBride also has superb media contacts with whom he has established a good working relationship. For as long as he’s in government, he’ll be used again. Mandy has his own contacts. He’ll use them.
2. Bad Blood Remember Brown and Mandy have hardly spoken in the last 20 years. As Campbell said in his diaries, they “really do hate each other”. Forget strategy, theory, aligned interests. To paraphrase Mohammed Ali before the Foreman fight, they’re going to get it on because they don’t get along.
3. Mandy plots. Put him in a nunnery and he’d have a rebellion stoked up by Christmas. Sure, he’s a lightening conductor taller than Brown, a Minister For The Media To Hate Even More. But it won’t be long before he gets tired of Brown, who he’ll regard – rightly – as Labour’s single biggest liability. To paraphrase Chris Patten this time, dogs bark, cats miaow, Mandy plots. It’s the natural order of things.
4. This Blairite narrative is false. Patrick Hennessy has a brilliant write-though in the Sunday Telegraph today, where he says Brown’s logic is that the Blairites won’t come for him if he has an arch-Blaiirte by his side. I can well believe Brown thinks that, but this misunderstands both the Labour Party and the plots. The ones who came for him in the last month or so are not Blairite clones under remote control: they are ordinary, loyal party members who want him gone. Brown’s biggest flaw is his determination to view the world through the lens of factionalism. As I wrote last November, if surrounded by sharks, his instinct is to ask “who sent the sharks?” rather than deal with the problem. The bad news for him is that Blair did not send the sharks. The rebels came because they want him gone. And that’s hardly likely to change because Mandy is back.
5. Mandy won’t change the wider narrative. You can write the script. Economy dives, job losses mount, repossessions do too. Businesses close, Mandy is wheeled out as Minister for Business, starts to point the finger to the mistakes and debt run up in the last ten years. Brown loses Glenrothes next month, Mandy is blamed for not turning things around, he lets it be known Brown’s still using his old people. A new Cold War starts, Brown takes the mother of all kickings in the European elections, The Cabinet concludes “we have to lose Brown to win” and this time they don’t have Miliband playing ring-and-run with The Guardian but a world-class plotter waiting to avenge Blair.
Now perhaps Mandy will get behind Brown and be Cameron’s nightmare and I’ll say this: Brown has made a genuinely bold move. The theory is seductive. But in practise I consider it likely to blow up in Brown’s face.
Whatveer happens it is great for box office, the political equivalent of bringing Nick Cotton back to EastEnders. There is nothing like a good old villain to liven up the panto. However this unfolds, it will be great fun to watch.
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