Winning in 2015

Danny Finkelstein’s column in The Times today (£) is well worth reading. Finkelstein sets out two worries, first that the Tories do not have enough of a strategy for winning re-election and second that the NHS reforms might compromise Cameron’s standing as a different kind of Tory.

On the latter point, Finkelstein is echoing the views of an increasing number of Tory MPs and ministers. They worry that these poorly understood reforms have put the NHS back on the political table and that, as is so often the case when this happens, the Tories will suffer.

Finkelstein’s first worry is that if the government sets out deficit reduction as its raison d’etre then, when that is achieved, as it should be by the next election, it loses its purpose. There is some truth to this. But I think everything depends on whether growth returns, which is why yesterday’s negative numbers have sent so many Tory MPs into a funk.

If growth does return, as I still expect it to, then the Tory campaign can copy the Reagan re-election campaign. It’s morning in Britain again. Running on a platform of ‘hope, confidence, and growth’ should deliver a Tory majority.