Would a fourth term Labour government try and take Britain into the euro?

Gordon Brown has done something great for Britain: he was one of the people most responsible for keeping this country out of the European single currency. As Chancellor, he was a roadblock to Blair’s ambitions on this front. So when the idea of Britain joining the euro was floated last weekend, I thought it was just Peter Mandelson getting too far forward on his skis and being a bit, from his perspective, too hopeful. But Peter Oborne reports in the Mail today that it was actually part of a coordinated plan:

“It was as a result of these talks [with Barroso] that Lord Mandelson floated the tragically misguided idea of sterling entering the euro during a recent speech.

These controversial remarks were made deliberately to test the water of public opinion, and pro-European ministers have been extremely gratified by the positive reception.

There was none of the anger that might have greeted such comments a decade ago. What’s more, ministers are increasingly convinced that the British public are no longer dogmatically opposed to joining the euro.

Indeed, if Labour wins the next General Election, negotiations for British entry may begin almost at once.

Such is the confidence of ministers that they think they will be able to avoid the issue dominating the election campaign if their manifesto promises to hold a referendum on British entry  –  most likely to take place in the summer of 2012.

Fundamentally, the pro-European camp believes it will win the argument because the economic recession has transformed the debate.

Supporters think the changes that have happened to the global financial system mean they can convince the British public that sterling would be vulnerable to losing even more value if it continues to exist outside the comfort of the eurozone.” Personally, I’m doubtful as to whether a referendum on the euro could be won in 2012. I suspect that British voters—having seen the pain that will be inflicted on several European economies by being in the euro during this recession—won’t want to out on such a straitjacket. But it does seem that the euro talk is more than the idle chatter it initially appeared to be.