Matthew Kroenig

Would Obama bomb Iran?

Yes, and here’s why, says a former adviser to his defence department

President Barack Obama talks with President Hassan Rouhani of Iran [Getty Images]

What is worse: Iran with the Bomb or bombing Iran? This is a question we must reconsider as diplomats return to Vienna this week to discuss Iran’s nuclear programme.

Of course, we all hope that the negotiations will result in a lasting diplomatic accord that resolves the Iranian nuclear challenge once and for all. The election of a new and more pragmatic Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, last August and the successful conclusion of an ‘interim’ nuclear pact in November mean that the prospects for a ‘comprehensive’ settlement have never been brighter.

President Obama has called the Iranian nuclear issue ‘one of the leading security challenges of our time’, and a diplomatic bargain that prevents Iran from building nuclear weapons peacefully would be by far the best outcome to this crisis.

Yet we must also be realistic. Obama himself has estimated that the odds of a comprehensive deal are ‘no better than 50/50’. And his former weapons of mass destruction coordinator, Gary Samore, puts the chances closer to zero. Some officials have expressed optimism in recent weeks, but there is still a significant chance that we will fail to get a deal.

Moreover, even a comprehensive bargain might not solve the problem. The final settlement as currently envisioned would leave Iran only six months away from a nuclear breakout capability, severely tempting Tehran’s leaders to tear up the agreement (overtly or in secret) at a later date.

At best, therefore, a final deal will still require the international community to remain forever laser-focused on Iran to quickly detect and respond to any cheating. At worst, it could quickly unravel and the Iranian nuclear clock would resume its countdown.

SWITZERLAND-DAVOS-ECONOMY-SUMMIT
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

In other words, it is still more likely than not that diplomacy will not work, and if diplomacy fails to stop Iran’s march to a Bomb, then we need to be prepared for what happens next.

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