It was perhaps the most intriguing moment of their Moscow summit. As Xi Jinping left the Kremlin last night, he stood face to face with Vladimir Putin and told the Russian leader, ‘Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years and we are driving this change together’. The two men clasped hands, smiling. ‘I agree,’ Putin said, briefly bringing up his free hand to hold Xi’s arm. The Chinese leader then added, ‘Please take care, dear friend’.
Xi then walked down a step and into his limousine. Putin stood awkwardly at the curb side, waving, and very briefly appeared to bow his head as Xi’s cavalcade swept away. He cut a rather lonely figure.
Analysts have pored over every word, every nuance from this highly choregraphed summit, but those few unscripted moments on the Kremlin steps perhaps tell us more about Xi’s and Putin’s relationship than the reams of platitudes in official communiques.
The optics were striking. Putin appeared every bit the supplicant. The dynamics of their partnership have been shifting for some time now, but the Ukraine war has massively accelerated that move and Russia is now highly dependent on China economically and diplomatically. Xi is the senior partner, and the body language screamed that disparity of power. Xi at times appeared almost nonchalant, barely trying to conceal an air of superiority, Putin anxious and edgy. But what of the words themselves?
A benign reading is that Xi was trying to reassure his beleaguered friend that things can only get better. But there is a more chilling reading – that Xi was re-affirming their shared longer term project to create a new international order, and both men see the Ukraine war as part of that project.
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