Have you ever heard of Herman Cain? Neither have most Americans. The latest Gallup polling shows that only 21 per cent of Republicans even recognise his name, despite the fact that he would like to be their candidate for the Presidency. Yet that could all be about to change for the man who used to run Godfather’s Pizza, thanks to an acclaimed performance in the first debate of the primary season on Thursday night.
Big names like Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump have yet to declare their candidacy, and so did not take part, while Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich (who have announced their bids) decided to skip it. There were, therefore, just five candidates on the stage in South Carolina: former Minnesota Governer Tim Pawlenty, former Senator Rick Santorum, Congressman and 2008 candidate Ron Paul, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and the same Mr Herman Cain.
Most of the pre-debate attention was on Tim Pawlenty. He is seen as the most credible of these candidates, and the debate was a great opportunity for “T-Paw” to stand out from the pack and gain ground on the likes of Romney and Huckabee. None of the others were considered likely to be serious challengers.
But the post debate focus has instead been on Mr Cain. He was deemed to have won the debate, both by many commentators and by Frank Luntz’s focus group (see video above). They praised Cain for his directness, common sense and for being “clear and concise”.
It would be foolish to think that one debate, seven months before the first primary is held, will have that much impact on the campaign – especially one missing all of the top contenders. And I certainly wouldn’t expect Cain to end up as the Republican nominee. But his performance – and the praise it has elicited – could help Cain emerge from the bottom tier of candidates and become more than just another also-ran. Should we be surprised if he does so?
Up until now, Cain’s poll numbers have not looked that strong. In fact, he has been included in just three of the 21 national primary polls conducted in 2011, and has averaged less than 3 per cent. This puts him firmly in the bottom tier and well behind the big players, as this graph shows:
However, this looks more impressive when you consider his lack of name recognition. While only one-in-five have heard of Cain, Romney’s name recongition stands at 82 per cent, Huckabee’s at 87 and Palin’s at 96. Taking this into account, Cain’s position in the race is actually a lot healthier: 12.5 per cent of those who have heard of him would vote for him. This puts him in what you might call the second tier: in amongst the likes of Trump and Palin, and even ahead of Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty.
So these numbers, as well as the reception to his debate performance, suggest that Cain may have the potential to do quite well in the nomination battle. This has some parallels with Mike Huckabee’s performance in 2008. He was polling at about 2 per cent at this time in 2007, with similar name recognition to Cain’s. Strong debate performances, coupled with a campaign focused on the first caucus in Iowa (which he won), helped Huckabee to 8 primary victories and 20 per cent of the popular vote. Cain seems to have a similar strategy – having made more trips to Iowa than any other candidate so far this year. He is, even at this early stage, one to watch.
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