Net migration has fallen to its lowest level in four years. Figures released this morning show that 204,000 more people arrived in the UK than left in the 12 months to June – a drop of more than two-thirds compared with the year before.
The real story, though, is that inward migration remains close to record highs. Some 898,000 people arrived in the UK over the year, but the net figure dropped because an unusually large 693,000 people left, with the rate particularly high among young people. Some 59,000 16–24-year-olds left the country along with a further 52,000 25–30-year-olds. The Office for National Statistics described this as part of a ‘gradual increase in levels of emigration’. Fewer non-EU nationals came to the UK to work or study too.
Breaking the figures down by nationality, 70,000 more EU nationals departed than arrived, while 109,000 more British citizens left the country than returned.
Additionally, there was bad news for the government in the latest asylum statistics, also released today. The Home Office reported that in the year to September a record 110,000 people claimed asylum, with more than 36,000 accommodated in hotels. That’s a tad higher than the 109,142 recorded in the year to June. According to the Home Office: ‘Half of asylum seekers arrived through illegal routes, such as small boats or clandestine method.’
Among small-boat arrivals, 17 per cent came from Eritrea, 13 per cent from Afghanistan and 11 per cent from Iran.
The asylum figures are especially uncomfortable for ministers given the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed yesterday that the cost of housing asylum seekers in hotels will exceed £15 billion over the next decade – far higher than the original £4.5 billion estimate. If asylum hotels are not closed by mid-2028, the OBR warns a further £1.1 billion will be needed.
Health and care visa approvals were down nearly 90 per cent from their 2023 peak
On visas, there was a 46 per cent decline in the number of Skilled Worker visas granted, while health and care visa approvals were down nearly 90 per cent from their 2023 peak.
Politically, the Conservatives are keen to claim credit for the sharp fall in net migration, arguing that the measures they introduced in their dying months – including tighter visa rules and restrictions on dependants – are now feeding through into the numbers. Labour, meanwhile, will welcome the headline drop but should tread carefully, since the reduction is largely the product of high levels of emigration.
Today’s figures do allow ministers to point to a dramatic fall in net migration, but the underlying picture is far less clear-cut. It is the slow but steady growth in people leaving the UK that has pushed the net figure down. The government can claim progress, but it is not yet evidence of a sustained fall in migration.
Comments