It is a very dangerous time to be a Conservative MP and not just because the party is trailing by 20 points in the opinion polls with a general election looming.
The sacking of Tory chairman Nadhim Zahawi after an investigation found he seriously breached the ministerial code means that, soon enough, we will no longer be seeing his gleaming pate and tight suit on the front pages for day after day.
Rishi Sunak can – and no doubt will – claim to have handled the affair with principle and professionalism. The PM will insist that due process was applied, rather than the kind of kangaroo court resorted to by some previous premiers.
But that will not be the end of things as far as the press and our increasingly tabloid-style and sensation-seeking political broadcasters are concerned. They will now have blood in their nostrils and already be casting around for the next high-ranking Conservative to pursue over his (and it normally is a he) financial or personal affairs or any predilection for ‘bullying’ staff via such unthinkable behaviour traits as brusqueness or a tendency to shout.
The justification will be the public interest, especially given that Sunak promised on assuming office to make improving standards in public life a priority of his administration. But a more important factor is that the public are interested, or at least enough of them are to make ministerial headhunting a worthwhile pursuit for journalists and opposition politicians.
Given the horrid prevailing political cocktail of falling living standards and failing public services, enough voters are in a sufficiently scratchy mood to enjoy a series of sacrificial offerings.
It is unlikely the media will run out of material either. Whenever a governing party is fatigued in office and in a fatalistic mood, there is a tendency for its MPs to become more focused on pursuing gold than glory. The canniest will do so in a low-profile manner. But some will just fill their boots like Matt Hancock has done with his celebrity side hustle, despite it bringing to an end any hope he had of a return to high office.
So, having claimed the head of Zahawi – and Gavin Williamson before him – the baleful eye of Sauron will be casting around for new victims. Keir Starmer and Labour will know that a rejuvenation of the idea of ‘Tory sleaze‘ is useful to them; it is a worthwhile attack, even though that will give those pursuing sleazy politicians a fresh precedent to turn on them pretty swiftly should they reach power. In PMQs last week it was telling that Starmer sought to link Zahawi’s controversies to a previous row over Sunak’s own financial circumstances including his wife’s former non-dom status.
As in the second half of John Major’s administration, so Rishi Sunak’s remaining time in Downing Street will be plagued by stories alleging impropriety or downright greed among his MPs. And Sunak’s promise on the steps of No. 10 as he took office to lead a government with ‘integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level’ will be cited almost as frequently as was Major’s ill-fated 1993 ‘back to basics’ conference speech.
If there is a consolation in all this for the PM, it is that many voters are so cynical about politics that they simply assume Westminster will always be a hotbed of mutual backscratching and self-enrichment. They are unlikely to think a Labour-led alternative would do much better in this regard. Voters are unlikely to make sleaze levels a central factor in deciding who to vote for next time.
All Sunak can do is to stay calm, keep focused on delivering his big five early pledges and hope the electorate comes to appreciate having an unflappable captain steering the ship of state. As Enoch Powell once noted, a politician complaining about the media is like a sailor complaining about the sea. Sunak must resolve not to be that sailor, but the chances of further crew members being lost overboard or made to walk the plank are much higher after his party chairman’s spectacular downfall.
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