Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Martin Vander Weyer

A rate rise in November? After years of dithering, don’t bet on it

It is more than three years since Bank of England governor Mark Carney was accused by Labour MP and Treasury Select Committee member Pat McFadden of behaving like ‘an unreliable boyfriend, one day hot, one day cold’ in his hints about forthcoming interest-rate rises. And it’s more than a decade since the last time the official UK bank rate actually moved upwards: the only shift since McFadden’s remark has been a cut from 0.5 per cent to 0.25 per cent in August last year. In fact there’s a palpable sense that the Bank, in common with other central banks, has all but lost the power to deploy interest rates as

Rod Liddle

Poor old Ron and Pen, just trying to help

Here’s the problem. An Asian bloke gets on to the Tube holding a bulging Lidl bag with wires sticking out of it. I don’t know if it had the words ‘large bomb’ written in Magic Marker on the side of the bag. Anyway, a little later, it blows up, and lots of people are injured. Later again, surprise is expressed that he had been able to get through with his primitive bag of tricks. We are continually exhorted to be vigilant on public transport, so why wasn’t he apprehended? Did nobody think it looked a bit suspicious? I have the feeling we know the answer to that. Just think of

Charles Moore

The political nature of statistics

Sir David Norgrove, the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), is an honourable man. When he publicly rebuked Boris Johnson for his use of the famous £350 million figure about our weekly EU contribution, I am sure he was statistically, not party-politically motivated. But two points occur. The first is that Sir David was, arguably, mistaken. He thinks Boris said that, after Brexit, Britain would have £350 million a week more to spend. He didn’t. He said ‘we will take back control of roughly £350 million a week’. This is correct. So long as we are in the EU, that £350 million a week is out of our control,

Katy Balls

Theresa May’s singing birds can only hold the same tune for so long

After concerns about the Foreign Secretary’s job security bumped Vince Cable’s keynote leader’s speech at Lib Dem conference off the news agenda yesterday, a sense of stability has been restored to Cabinet. Boris Johnson has told hacks in New York that he is not going anywhere – likening Cabinet harmony to ‘a nest of singing birds’. The message from Downing Street, too, is one of quiet confidence that Johnson won’t be departing the frontbench – at least, not this weekend. This suggests two things. Firstly, that May’s Florence speech won’t be as drastic as had first been thought. Secondly, Johnson is coming round to the idea of payments to Brussels continuing during a transition period.

Steerpike

MPs gear up for Tory Glastonbury

The Conservatives have had a difficult few days. After Boris Johnson published his 4,000 word Brexit blueprint in the Telegraph, the Cabinet is feuding, Theresa May’s authority is under strain and backbenchers have taken to the airwaves to call for the Foreign Secretary to be sacked. But fear not, help is on its way. Tomorrow Tory MPs are upping sticks and heading onto the M4 to make their way to Tory Glastonbury. Officially called the ‘Festival of Ideas’, Conservatives are expected to do some soul-searching – on everything from helping the young to boosting productivity – at the one-day event organised by George Freeman. Although Freeman says he was inspired

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Tory Brexit infighting could hand Corbyn victory

Boris Johnson’s Brexit intervention ‘is a dismal reflection on Theresa May’s position’, says the Times. But worse than that, this Cabinet ‘disunity is corroding the Conservative brand’ – and making a Corbyn victory at the next election ever more likely. ‘In normal times,’ says the Times, ‘the case for dismissal would be unanswerable’. But while the Foreign Secretary’s popularity has ‘plummeted’ of late, he still retains ‘a talent for generating headlines when he is in the mood for trouble’. Mrs May has learnt a lesson from her brutal treatment of George Osborne, and seems determined not to repeat her mistake on that front. Yet while Boris has survived in his

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

When Boris gets it wrong, don’t make excuses for him

When Boris Johnson received a sharply worded rebuke for his ‘clear misuse of official statistics’ from Sir David Norgrove, the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, The Spectator rushed to his aid. Steerpike asked why the statistics chief had intervened when ‘every word from Boris (this time) was accurate’.  The short answer is that Norgrove intervened because Boris was wrong to say that ‘once we have settled our accounts, we will take back control of roughly £350 million per week’. Here’s why. The Boris explanation – or, at any rate, Steerpike’s – is as follows: ‘We all know the deal with the EU: we pay in, then there’s the rebate

Roger Bootle: A post-Brexit Britain could be ‘more open, less protectionist and more competitive’

One of the City’s best-known economists, Roger Bootle, discusses whether a success could be made from Brexit, just over a year after Britain to leave the European Union. Bootle begins by explaining the ‘overblown’ nature of the ‘European Single Market’ concept: I don’t think what has been clearly said or argued is that the [European] ‘Single Market’ is vastly overblown. There are advantages and disadvantages of not being part of it. However, I do think it has become a protectionist entity. The original idea for a [European] ‘Single Market’ was a British one supported by former Conservative Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher. The idea behind the [European] ‘Single Market’ was to

Donald Trump discovers his inner neocon

Donald Trump fully embraced his inner neocon before the United Nations today. He lashed out at North Korea, indicating that he was ready to ‘totally destroy’ it. He upbraided Iran as a corrupt and malignant regime that had taken America and its allies to the cleaners with the nuclear deal—’One of the worst and most one-sided transactions.’ And for good measure, he scoffed at various socialist regimes around the globe. The only term missing in his dyspeptic assessment of the carnage around the world was ‘axis of evil,’ the phrase that George W. Bush made famous when he decried Iran, North Korea and Iraq after the 9/11 attacks. The language

Vince Cable’s conference speech, full text

It is with a real sense of pride that I stand before you as leader of the Liberal Democrats. First of all, I’d like to put on record my thanks to my predecessor, Tim Farron. He hands over a Party, which is larger, stronger and more diverse than the one he inherited. He stood up for refugees whose plight the government had shamefully ignored. He established our very clear identity as the only real, undiluted pro-European party. We are all hugely indebted to him. It’s good, today, to be amongst friends. So please forgive me if I start by addressing people who are not yet our friends, but whom we might persuade.   People who say they

Steerpike

George Osborne defrosts humble pie

Oh dear. It was a case of bad timing for George Osborne last week when the day after the paper he edits offered Theresa May an olive branch, a profile appeared in Esquire magazine claiming the former Chancellor had told hacks he would not rest until the Prime Minister was chopped up in bits in his freezer. Since then Osborne has been widely condemned by both Tory MPs and women’s action groups against violence. So, it was only a matter of time until an apology came. This apology appears to be lurking in a leader in today’s Evening Standard. Osborne appears to have had to eat humble pie – with the

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn gives Piers Morgan the cold shoulder

Although Jeremy Corbyn has seen a huge rise in popularity since the snap election, the Labour leader hasn’t forgotten those who were with him from the beginning. At next week’s party conference, Corbyn loyalists will be rewarded with a platform to speak on – while those who questioned his abilities will do without. It seems the same approach is in practise when it comes to public figures. At this month’s GQ awards, Piers Morgan attempted to join in a conversation Corbyn was having Arsenal’s Spanish right back, Hector Bellerin. Alas, the Labour leader didn’t share the sentiment and took swift action to prevent Morgan from joining the chat: ‘Later, fellow Arsenal

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Boris is speaking for the majority of Brits

Boris Johnson has come in for plenty of criticism since setting out his Brexit blueprint in a 4,000 word article in the Daily Telegraph. But the Sun says the Foreign Secretary has done the PM a favour in speaking up for ‘the 52 per cent who voted Leave and the many more won over since’. ‘Theresa May must listen’ up, the paper says – and she should also ‘ignore the siren calls from Cabinet Remainers’ who want to reverse the referendum result. The attacks levelled at Boris are ‘designed solely to discredit him and trash the optimistic vision’ of Brexit he has set out. Instead of getting angry at Boris, the

Ross Clark

Ryanair’s chaos prediction is coming true – but Brexit isn’t to blame

So, the worst has happened, just as Ryanair said it would. The budget airline has had to cancel thousands of flights – around 50 of them, every day, for the next six weeks. It follows an ominous warning that was made by chief executive Michael O’ Leary last month: “What is increasingly likely to happen is that there will be no flights. Mrs May and the Brexiteers will be trying to explain that to you in 12 months’ time, why getting a car to Scotland or a ferry to Ireland are the only options on offer.” Except, that is, while last month’s warning concerned Brexit, this week’s cancellations concerned a cock-up

James Forsyth

The biggest Cabinet Brexit split

The Cabinet remains divided on one of the most fundamental Brexit questions. Everyone in the Cabinet does accept that Britain is leaving not just the EU but the single market too. But there remains a split over whether Britain should be aiming for an EEA minus deal with the EU or a CETA plus one. This might sound techy but it is fundamental to Britain’s future. Free movement makes it a political non-starter for Britain to stay in the single market. However, several of the most senior members of the Cabinet, backed by the institutional Treasury, think that Britain should stay as closely aligned to the single market as possible.

Steerpike

Hacks banished from the floor at Labour party conference

Oh dear. Since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader, he has had an at times difficult relationship with the ‘Mainstream Media’. From hacks being booed at press conferences to Corbyn avoiding questions, it’s safe to say that the media feel a little bit unloved. Now, it seems Labour’s high command is keen, too, that party members have limited interaction with the MSM. At this year’s party conference in Brighton, the press will not be granted access to the floor. Instead journalists will have to watch proceedings from the balcony. This means that the media will be away from the action – and unable to interact with delegates on the floor. The official

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Boris’s ‘naked pitch’ for the top job

Has Boris Johnson launched a military coup? Based on ‘some of the chatter coming out of the Westminster Bubble’, you’d be forgiven for thinking his Brexit intervention was just that, says the Sun. It’s time for everybody to ‘calm down’, the paper urges. Yes, some of those who have questioned the timing of the article – published in the run-up to Theresa May’s major speech on Brexit this Friday – may have a point. But Boris is nonetheless ‘entitled to a view on what Britain might look like after we leave the EU’. The Tories need to quit the fighting amongst themselves and realise that the only ones to benefit from

Steerpike

Old habits die hard for Russell Brand

Oh dear. Although Russell Brand once said he had never voted, and never would, as a result of his ‘absolute indifference and weariness and exhaustion from the lies, treachery and deceit of the political class’, he went on to change his tune when her urged his fans to vote Labour in the 2015 election – and later endorsed Jeremy Corbyn. So, Mr S was curious to discover that Brand has now returned to his old tricks. The comedian-turned-left-wing revolutionary tells the Sunday Times that he didn’t vote in the EU referendum as he was on ‘holiday’: ‘How did he vote in the referendum? He mumbles: “I was on holiday.” He didn’t vote over Brexit? “No,” he