Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

24 May 2016

Hilton: Brexit would be the crowning achievement of Tory modernisation

In a speech to Policy Exchange today, Steve Hilton—David Cameron’s former senior adviser—will make the case that ‘any intellectual rigorous examination makes it impossible for a Tory moderniser to support staying in the EU’. He argues that Tory modernisation was about trusting people, and that the EU does not; that modernisation was about localism, and that the EU is inherently centralising; and that the EU helps the rich and not the rest. I think there’s much to be said for Hilton’s analysis. (Though, of course, it should be recognised that there are Tory modernisers on both sides of the argument.) But where Hilton is surely right is that the EU

Tom Goodenough

Today in audio: Fallon says Putin would ‘Vote leave’

Vladimir Putin’s name has popped up again in the Brexit debate. This time, however, it wasn’t the Prime Minister suggesting that the Russian president would favour Britain leaving the EU, but the Defence Secretary. Michael Fallon said Putin would ‘Vote Leave’ and he also told a Commons select committee that ‘there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that a British exit from the European Union would be applauded in Moscow’. He added that it would be a ‘payday for Putin’: Michael Fallon went on to say that being in the EU ensured that Russia had ‘paid the price’ for its intervention in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister gave a

Isabel Hardman

How good government often goes unnoticed and unrewarded

What make a good minister? Is it how well they perform at the Dispatch Box in the Commons? Or their ability to field questions on Newsnight? Or even their ability to be a good lunch guest for a member of the lobby? The truth is that often we don’t know whether someone has been a good government minister until years after they’ve left the department and the policies they introduced have actually run their course, rather than just enjoyed a bit of media limelight. Take the 1999 Teenage Pregnancy Strategy. Launched in June of that year by Tony Blair, the strategy examined a study by the Social Exclusion Unit and

Alex Massie

Project Fear 2 is a rubbish sequel. But it will still work

Sometimes, in this game, it’s tempting to over-complicate things. The lesson of Talleyrand’s death – What did he mean by that? – has been all too well absorbed. And so we search for hidden meanings and a deeper truth whenever a politician says something. The real story always lurks beneath the surface, nothing should be taken at face value and everyone is always thinking three moves ahead. It’s an appealing thought right enough. The trouble is it’s also often nonsense. Sometimes even politicians just mean what they say. Nicola Sturgeon’s visit to London yesterday offered a case in point. The First Minister insisted, as she has always insisted, that she wants the

Steerpike

Introducing Jeremy Corbyn’s new spokesman: the ex-Labour aide who called the Queen a ‘scrounger’

Although Jeremy Corbyn managed to survive the Queen’s Speech relatively unscathed last week, his republican beliefs are likely to be called into question once again thanks to a new appointment to his press team. Steerpike understands that Matt Zarb-Cousin has been chosen as the winning candidate to fill the ‘leader’s office media spokesperson’ vacancy first advertised last month. Cousin — who currently works as a consultant for the Campaign for Fairer Gambling — is an interesting choice given that he is already a familiar name in Labour circles thanks to an incident that occurred when he worked as a staffer for Andy Slaughter. In 2012, to mark the Queen’s 60 years on the

Tom Goodenough

So what if Brexit briefly raises the cost of a family holiday, Prime Minister?

Nicola Sturgeon urged the Government yesterday to lay off the ‘Project Fear’ strategy and instead focus on spelling out the positive reasons for remaining in the EU. Unfortunately, it seems it’ll take the Prime Minister some time to heed that advice. Cameron will warn today that Brexit would ramp up the price of a holiday. He’ll argue later that: ‘The choice facing the British people on 23 June is increasingly clear: the certainty and economic security of remaining in the EU, or a leap in the dark that would raise prices – including the cost of a family holiday. All the evidence points to the value of the pound falling

Tony Benn

Tony Benn on the 1975 referendum

This letter from Tony Benn to his constituents was written in 1975 and published in The Spectator. In 1975 you will each have the responsibility of deciding by vote whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Common Market: or whether we should withdraw completely, and remain an independent self-governing nation. That decision, once taken will almost certainly be irreversible. In both the 1974 general elections I fully supported our manifesto commitment on the handling of the Common Market question. The present Government is now engaged in renegotiating the terms of entry along the lines set out in those Manifestos and is solemnly pledged, whatever the Outcome

Steerpike

George Osborne ‘uncorks the Gauke’ once again

At last month’s Westminster Correspondents’ dinner, George Osborne made light of his behaviour during his budget U-turn. Joshing about his decision to send his Financial Secretary David Gauke to field questions from angry MPs: ‘A big speech in parliament, the pressure is on, you lot are baying for blood. My answer? Uncork the Gauke.’ So, it ought to come as little surprise to Osborne that MPs were weary to his ways when he appeared to use the same old strategy to avoid awkward questions on Monday about the latest Treasury EU report. With Osborne absent from proceedings, it fell on Gauke to answer the question — much to John Bercow’s

Monday

23 May 2016

Isabel Hardman

Is the Leave campaign going around in circles?

Boris Johnson took in a car factory as part of his day of campaigning for Vote Leave in Yorkshire. The former Mayor did the usual politician’s thing of touring the workshops of Ginetta, pointing at various pieces of equipment and asking the workers what it was that they were doing, before hopping in one of the carmaker’s vehicles – branded with Vote Leave insignia – for a spin. He drove it out of the factory before handing the wheel over to a proper driver, who proceeded to whizz him around in tight donuts in the car park outside, sending up a large amount of smoke from the burning rubber. ‘We’re

Lara Prendergast

Could Brexit solve the housing crisis?

It is, at times, unclear that George Osborne is aware that the under-30s are voting in this EU referendum. When he talks about house prices plummeting post-Brexit, he talks as if this will strike fear into everyone’s hearts. For older people seeking to downsize, this might be true – but for almost everyone else, it’s not. And when I hear the In side arguing that we should all be terrified of Brexit because it will cause house prices to fall, I can’t help but wonder if this is the best single reason to vote ‘out’. For most people my age, one of the worst changes in Britain has been the

Damian Thompson

Catholic bishops split over Brexit as Archbishop accuses Osborne of ‘ludicrous’ scaremongering

Archbishop Peter Smith, the Catholic Archbishop of Southwark – whose diocese covers all of London south of the Thames – has accused George Osborne of ‘ludicrous’ scaremongering in the EU referendum. The Archbishop, talking to Vatican radio, does not explicitly say that he supports Brexit. His line is that he is ‘undecided how to vote’. But according to my sources, in private he has been telling ‘anyone who cares to listen’ that he favours the Out campaign. ‘It seems that Peter Smith wants to leave the EU – he’s made that very clear,’ a Catholic bishop tells me. Here’s an extract from the Catholic Herald report on Smith’s interview. It’s surprising and refreshing to

Andrew Lilico

The Treasury’s Brexit short-term impacts analysis: A bit high, a lot political

The Treasury’s analysis of the short-term impact of Brexit offers us two scenarios for the two years following the referendum: a base ‘shock’ and a ‘severe shock’ scenario. The base case means 3.6pc less economic growth in the two years following Brexit, with inflation up 2.3 percentage points and house prices down 10pc. A first thing to grasp is the connection between the scenarios in this report and those in the previous Treasury report on the longer-term impact of Brexit. In its long-term impacts, the Treasury had three scenarios, for each of three options it claimed the UK had for its trade arrangements post-Brexit (all of which were very unlikely): an ‘EEA’ option; a ‘Canada’ option

Raoul Ruparel

Brexit might cause a short-term shock but it won’t be as bad as the Treasury makes out

There’s already quite a wide consensus around the basic assumption of the Treasury’s latest report that there would be a short-term economic shock from leaving the EU. However, it’s nigh on impossible to credibly foresee the size of this shock. And by going too far on such estimates the Treasury risks undermining the consensus already in its favour. Contrary to what one may be tempted to assume, short-term economic forecasts are often harder to make than longer-term ones. Making reasonable assumptions about how policy choices a few years down the line shift economic growth from a baseline is a slightly easier exercise than trying to predict short-term market movements –

Steerpike

Watch: John Bercow takes Bernard Jenkin to task in the Commons

Although Bernard Jenkin tabled an urgent question today, the Conservative politician didn’t seem to feel any sense of urgency when it came to arriving in time to read it. As John Bercow called Jenkin’s name, the Eurosceptic MP was nowhere to be seen — leading MPs to joke that he was busy in Brussels. ‘I find it very hard to believe that the honourable gentleman is in Brussels,’ Bercow replied. When he did eventually arrive, Bercow launched into a lengthly tirade about Jenkin’s timekeeping skills: ‘It’s a considerable discourtesy when I grant the honourable gentleman’s urgent question application when he’s not here at once, he should be in the Chamber, This must not happen again.

Ed West

The working-class vote explains the rise of Austria’s far-right

So Austria has a new leader. The radical leftist Alexander Van der Bellen, a former Green party leader running as an independent, has just edged out radical right-wing politician Norbert Hofer in one of the closest elections in European history. After postal votes were counted, Van der Bellen had 50.2 per cent and Hofer 49.8 per cent – a margin of just 0.4 percentage points. Most of the continent will probably breath a sigh of relief while still being disturbed at the size of the radical right vote; more shocking, perhaps, is the fact that among the working-class, there was almost unanimous support for Hofer, with the Freedom Party receiving 86 per

Tom Goodenough

Boris hits back in Brussels banana row. But has he got his facts right this time?

Boris has hit back in the row over whether Brussels tells Brits what types of bananas we can eat. Last week, he was accused of ‘making it up as he went along‘ after claiming that the European Union prevented the fruit from being sold in bunches of more than ‘two or three’. But instead of being quiet about them today, Boris has used his Brexit battlebus stop in York to insist that Brussels does meddle with our bananas. As Isabel Hardman reports, the former Mayor decided to take on those who had ridiculed him about his claims regarding EU control over bananas. He said he had looked into it and

James Forsyth

There are Tory modernisers supporting Brexit — just ask Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton coming out so strongly for Brexit is important for two reasons. First, it is a reminder that the idea that, within the Tory party, this referendum is the modernisers versus the right is far too crude. There are Tory modernisers on both sides of this argument. Indeed, given the importance of localism to Tory modernisation and its appreciation that there’s a difference between being pro-big business and pro-market, there are thoroughly modernising reasons for wanting the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. Hilton also details how it was the experience of government that tipped many Tories into backing Brexit. It was the discovery of just how much

Isabel Hardman

On the EU campaign trail with Boris

Boris Johnson is on the Vote Leave campaign trail in York this morning, and has just addressed a medium-sized crowd in the city centre. Unlike some of the election rallies that we saw last year, there were some real members of the public attending – and a chap who had turned up to egg he former Mayor, but didn’t manage to. Boris turns to the chap who had brought an egg to throw at him and tells him people are going hungry pic.twitter.com/z6Wfl7eRwD— Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman) May 23, 2016 Afterwards, the failed egger claimed he had never intended to throw the egg, but had just brought it along to ’cause

Isabel Hardman

Post-referendum, will David Cameron accept that all’s fair in love and war?

This weekend’s public spat between David Cameron and Penny Mordaunt about whether Britain can stop the accession of new countries such as Turkey into the European Union looks like just another row in the referendum campaign. Every day one figure on one side makes a claim that riles the other side, and a war of press releases and broadcast interviews ensues. But this particular row doesn’t just tell us a lot about where the two camps are in the campaign, but also makes a considerable difference both to the campaign and to the aftermath of the vote. Firstly, it is clear that the Tory party is going to take a

Steerpike

David Cameron’s former adviser Steve Hilton backs Brexit

Although David Cameron is keen to suggest of late that the dubious bunch backing Brexit includes Vladimir Putin and Isis, he may have more trouble brushing aside the latest figure to support Leave. The Prime Ministers former director of strategy Steve Hilton has penned an article for the Daily Mail in which he reveals why Britain ‘must’ quit the EU. Hilton — who is one of Cameron’s closest friends — says the UK is ‘literally ungovernable’ as a democracy while it remains in the EU: ‘I believe it is [about] taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs – in people’s hands.’ Hilton also takes aim at