Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Farage (wisely) bottles the Newark by-election: ‘I’m a fighter, I’m a warrior’

Much relief in Downing Street this morning as Nigel Farage announces that he’s not standing in the Newark by-election. Coffee House readers had the best insight into the Ukip leader’s thinking when James posted the details of a conversation he’d had with Farage about the constituency. And his prediction that Farage may well decide to not stand was right. listen to ‘Nigel Farage says he’s not standing in Newark: ‘You have to pick your battles’’ on Audioboo Farage has bottled it, he’s frit. That’s what every relieved Conservative MP is saying this morning. It’s true: Farage got to the cliff edge, looked down, and edged away from what he saw.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The Mercer mess

Patrick Mercer has gone out in style. One Tory MP, hearing that the whips had tried to dissuade him from triggering a by-election fight with Ukip at an extremely inconvenient time for David Cameron, told me: ‘It’s a waste of time. He’s determined to damage Dave. He’s Colonel Nicholson in Bridge on the River Kwai!’ Mercer has left Cameron a little present in the form of this by-election. Even if Nigel Farage announces today that he won’t stand in the contest (and James’s post from last night on the Ukip leader’s thinking is a must-read), Ukip can still repeat its success in Eastleigh by fielding an impressive formerly unknown candidate. In Eastleigh,

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why Nigel Farage might not stand in Newark

Nigel Farage told me on Monday how closely he was watching the situation in Newark. He introduced the subject by saying, “there’s one other thing that could change everything”. But Farage’s comments to me yesterday make me think that he’s unlikely to stand in Newark. He said that he’d ‘been looking at candidates’ and mused on how just one MP would make such a difference. He pointed to how the Canadian Reform party had won a seat in a by-election in 1989 and then go on to become the largest opposition party in at the next election. What struck me about this anecdote was how taken Farage was by the

Sebastian Payne

Who could win the Newark by-election?

Who stands the best chance of winning the Newark by-election after Patrick Mercer’s resignation? It is a safe Conservative seat, which Mercer has held since 2001. At the last general election, Mercer was reelected to Newark with a 32 per cent majority: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/xnER5/index.html”] The Tories announced when Mercer resigned the party whip that Robert Jenrick, a lawyer who currently works at Christie’s auction house, would be standing for Newark at the next election. Will Jenrick hold the seat? According to Electoral Calculus, there is an 87 per cent chance that the Conservatives will win Newark based on the current polls — but by-elections are more unpredictable. listen to ‘Patrick Mercer

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Patrick Mercer quits as MP and triggers awkward by-election in Newark

Patrick Mercer has quit as an MP. The Sun has the story, with the former Conservative saying: ‘It is clear to me that the constituency of Newark needs to be represented properly. I will not argue will the findings of the committee and I can only humbly apologise. “My military background has taught me that you must never let down the people who depend on you, and those people are my constituents of Newark. If that becomes the case, you must go without any argument.’ listen to ‘Patrick Mercer resigns as the MP for Newark’ on Audioboo Now the question is when the Newark by-election will take place. It is

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Patrick Mercer banned from Parliament for six months

Patrick Mercer has been banned from Parliament for six months, the Standards Committee has confirmed, following revelations by the Telegraph and BBC Panorama that he agreed to table questions in return for cash. He had already resigned the Conservative whip. The question now is whether Mercer resigns as an MP, triggering a by-election in Newark which the Tories could try to hold on 22 May? Nigel Farage today said he would consider standing in a by-election this year. In 2010, Mercer won a 16,152 majority, with Ukip coming fourth with 3.81 per cent of the vote.

Sebastian Payne

Briefing: the Tory HS2 rebels

High Speed 2 moved another step closer to actually happening last night, as the Hybrid Bill passed its second reading and vote in the Commons. 41 MPs voted against the bill, including 26 Conservatives who rebelled against the party’s three-line whip. The rebellious MPs fall into three categories: those whose constituencies will be affected by HS2, those unconvinced by the project and the usual contingent of troublemakers. Then there are the MPs who stayed away from the Commons yesterday, mysteriously or otherwise. Here is a breakdown of the rebels and abstainers: HS2 runs through their constituency Cheryl Gillan (Chesham and Amersham) – The former Wales Secretary has been one of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

George Osborne: Britain is coming back (alright)

Treasury Questions today was rather formulaic. George Osborne spent a little while congratulating himself on today’s growth figures (only to be cut off by Bercow, who complained his answer was ‘far too long’), and loyal Tory MPs congratulated him too. Many of them chanted the phrase ‘long-term economic plan’. Some Labour MPs helped out by saying it too, which Osborne thanked them for. He has his own new phrase, which sounds a bit like a Backstreet Boys single: ‘Britain is coming back’. ‘Britain is coming back, alright,’ he (nearly) told MPs, before demanding that Labour congratulate him on the GDP figures. When it came to Ed Balls’ turn, he dispensed

Camilla Swift Camilla Swift

A ‘Cad’ does not sell videos of his sexual conquests to newspapers

There’s been a lot of talk on this website recently about ‘revenge porn’. First, Freddy revealed his tips on how to avoid embarrassing videos and pictures of yourself being posted online (Answer: don’t let anyone take them). Then Lara asked why a Ukip-supporting victim of revenge porn wasn’t getting any support from feminist campaigners. And now Ed West has come up with his solution for slut-shaming: cad-shaming. It’s this last bit that I’m not so sure about, though. How come men get the name ‘cad’, while women get called ‘sluts’? When it comes to venomous insults, the two words are hardly on the same level. For example, there are certain words

Ed West Ed West

One solution to revenge porn: ‘cad-shaming’

I’m kicking myself because back in 2011 or 2012 Paddy Power gave me odds of 66/1 on Ukip topping the 2014 poll, which I chickened out of taking. It was perfectly likely that Ukip would win because their views on a range of subjects are close to the median British average, while the three main parties (or LIBLABCON as I call them when posting on messageboards under the name ‘Sword of Odin’) are often in a world of their own. But I also thought that the party brand could be made toxic by media exposure of its most extreme members, and great denunciations from the commentariat. As it is Ukip’s

Ailsa Henderson

Why Ukip matters in the Scottish independence referendum

There is now a significant chance that Ukip will top the European election poll in England. But while Ukip are also on course to win an MEP in Wales, if the results of new polling are borne out on 22 May, they would likely not win an MEP in Scotland. Such a result would highlight the political differences between the nations of Britain. The strength of Ukip’s popular support in England draws on something which even they appear not to have fully recognised: the extent to which the party has become the champion of an increasingly politicized sense of English identity. The Ukip surge that appears in England – where

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Today’s GDP growth figure could mean a political dividend for the Tories

Today’s GDP figures are another sign that the recovery is strengthening. The 0.8 per cent growth in the first quarter is equivalent to more than 3 per cent annual growth. This means that the UK is on course to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year. The rapid fire press releases from Osborne, Alexander and Clegg this morning all strive to avoid saying that the job is done. But with the economy having grown 3.1 per cent since this time last year, it is clear that the economy is now on a far healthier trajectory. No one can say that it is bumping along the bottom anymore.

Anonymous

Senior Tory MP: Boris should stop messing our party around

I have not asked anyone out on a date for over 35 years. In fact, the last time I did invite anyone out was, like most of my attempts, excruciatingly bad. It involved a bubbly and charismatic blonde who told me to get lost. Now, as a Conservative MP, I find myself being teased by another bubbly blonde: Boris Johnson. I can’t understand why he is toying with me. Why won’t he accept my party’s offer of a safe seat? Like a desperate suitor, it has given him plenty of options, from a welcoming spot in Hampshire to a more familiar haunt in Kensington. I can’t believe it’s work that’s

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Labour goes after Cameron over TV debates

A smart move by Ed Miliband today to put pressure on David Cameron over the televised leaders’ debates next year. Every time the Prime Minister is asked about these debates, he makes supportive noises while muttering about the ‘right formula’, but doesn’t commit to anything. He has also said that he felt the debates ‘dominated’ the coverage of the 2010 election, which is as close as he’ll come to saying that Nick Clegg’s shiny new qualities at the time rather detracted from Cameron’s own appeal which his strategists had been setting so much store by. But as the Prime Minister hasn’t agreed to anything, Labour’s trying to get ahead of

Monday

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

50 MPs make biggest rebellion on HS2 Bill

As expected, the High Speed Rail (London – West Midlands) Bill 2013-14 has passed its second reading in the House of Commons by 452 votes to 41. Cheryl Gillan’s amendment calling on the House to decline to give the legislation its second reading failed 451 votes to 50. The breakdown of who voted (and, more interestingly in this vote when some ministers have opted for a disappearing act, who didn’t vote) will take a little while to come through. What will prevent ministerial resignations will be how the Bill progresses in the Committee stage, which will chug slower than a toy steam train. David Lidington wants further mitigation for his constituents,

Sebastian Payne

Brothers in arms — Ukip and the SNP are singing the same song

You don’t mean a thing if your seat ain’t a swing. As this saying goes, political campaigning in safe seats is usually a thankless task — unless you are Nigel Farage. Last week, he managed to pack out The Sage concert hall in ultra-safe Labour Gateshead for Ukip’s biggest ever-public meeting. By going back to the simple idea of touring the country (even the sceptical parts) and giving speeches, Farage is appealing directly to the voters left behind by the other parties. He told the 1,200-odd assembled crowd of my fellow Geordies: ‘We are here to say that Labour used to stand up for the people in this region, but

Douglas Murray

Are you fit to be a Liberal Democrat? (A response to Nick Cohen)

My colleague Nick Cohen has a piece asking ‘Are you fit to be British? Take the UKIP test.’ In it he cites a number of horrible and silly and things said by people in UKIP before he himself descends into rudeness.  Stuart Wheeler is apparently a ‘cadaverous gambling tycoon’. ‘Cadaverous’? As in old? I suppose it must come to us all. But it is Nick’s conclusion that spurs me to respond. He finishes, ‘The scandals are so frequent you have to conclude that it is not the odd rotten apples that needs throwing out but the whole stinking barrel.’ Nick is not the only journalist to take this view. The British

Steerpike Steerpike

Coffee Shots: Common Sense driving

All aboard Ukip’s Common Sense battle bus! Today Nigel Farage’s party took the fight to Portsmouth – or more precisely, Portsmouth and Southsea Station. It’s not entirely clear what the station did to offend Ukip, but the party’s battle bus accidentally collided with it while trying to execute a U-turn. Hopefully it’s not an omen for what will happen when the party drives back over previous commitments made in its 2010 manifesto.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

David Cameron’s mile-high fight

How does a Prime Minister get a recalcitrant minister to agree to something? Well, if it’s not going to make any difference to whether some legislation passes and the minister isn’t directly responsible for the policy, then he can always let them avoid a vote, as he seems to be doing on HS2 today. But what if the minister is the one who needs to sign off on a policy change? I hear that David Cameron found himself in this situation late last year when trying to make some changes to the government’s counter-extremism strategy. Baroness Warsi (not his favourite minister) was refusing to accept the changes, which the Prime

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: Under-fire minister explains to local party why he’s missing HS2 vote

While some ministers have mysteriously disappeared today so that they don’t have to vote in favour of the high-speed rail line that will cut through their constituencies, Minister for Civil Society Nick Hurd is busy explaining to his disgruntled local party why he isn’t turning up to vote on legislation which affects his constituency of Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner but which he supports. I understand that Hurd has told local party members that though he thinks HS2 may be in the national interest, he understands their concerns about the link, and wants to try to get the very best deal for his constituents on compensation and the environmental impact of