Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Monday

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 28 February 2011

…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson says that corporatism is not a foreign policy. James Forsyth argues that the coalition must fear the charge of incompetence. Peter Hoskin warns Ed Balls against bragging, and considers Labour’s latest attack line. Daniel Korski defends the SDSR in the light of the Libyan crisis. Martin Bright recalls the Blair government’s shameful realpolitik in Libya. Rod Liddle asks how we should deal with the next batch of lunatics in the Middle East. Alex Massie wonders what Enda Kelly is going to do now. And Melanie Phillips laments the debauching of the LSE.

Peter Hoskin

Will Cameron have a Brown moment over petrol?

Remember when Gordon Brown came up against Fern Britton in a TV interview? I’ve pasted the video above to remind CoffeeHousers of two persistent truths: how tricky a subject petrol costs can be for a serving Prime Minister (watch on from around the 0:50 mark), and how Labour are hardly blameless when it comes to the current cost of fuel. As Britton asks in the interview, “How much tax do you put on the fuel?” And the answer that Brown mumbled to avoid, from a House of Commons briefing note at the time, was this: In other words, for a huge portion of the New Labour years, fuel duty accounted

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Sarko’s bloody Sunday

President Nicolas Sarkozy has struck again, forcing the resignation of his dictator-friendly and gaffe-prone foreign minister, Michèle Alliot-Marie, in the hope of shoring up the French government after a terrible couple of weeks. She will be replaced by Defence Minister Alain Juppé, a heavyweight conservative who was prime minister in the 1990s. Speaking to the nation on Sunday, Sarkozy suggested re-launching the Mediterranean Union and called for a meeting of the European Council to discuss Europe’s response to the Arab revolutions. Getting European leaders together is a good idea. The scramble by each European country to get their citizens out of Libya could probably have done with a little more

Peter Hoskin

Labour sets about warning of a “cost of living crisis”

Ed Balls has been warming up to this one for a while, and now it has finally come: an all-out attack over rising prices. In an interview with the Sunday Times (£), the shadow chancellor warns of Britain’s “cost of living crisis,” and demands that George Osborne reverse the VAT increase. Much of his pleading is made on behalf of motorists, who – as I pointed out a couple of days ago – face punishment at the petrol pumps. He doesn’t even mention spending cuts once, especially not where his own party’s are concerned. Rising costs, clearly, are the new weapon of choice. And it’s not just Balls. Ed Miliband

Alex Massie Alex Massie

OK Enda, What Are You Going To Do Now?

They’re still counting the results of the Irish election but it’s clear that, as expected, the story of the day is Fianna Fail’s collapse. Enda Kenny, who’s not half as youthful as he looks (he’s the Father of the House and has been a TD since 1975), will be Taoiseach but the election of 75 or so Fine Gael TD’s should not be taken as much of an endorsement of Fine Gael’s policies, far less as support for fiscal austerity or, frankly, much else. Fianna Fail has mislaid half a million votes since they won 78 seats on 41% of the vote in 2007. Fianna Fail’s vote has collapsed to

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Why Ed Balls shouldn’t brag if the OBR downgrades its growth forecasts

Some speculation (£) today that the Office for Budget Responsibility will shortly downgrade its 2011 growth forecast – and hence the growth forecast in next month’s Budget. If so, then you can expect Ed Balls to crow on and on about it. He did, after all, prime the attack in his recent clash with George Osborne across the dispatch box: “With consumer confidence falling, with inflation rising, with no bank lending agreement, no plan for jobs, no plan for growth, no plan B – does he really expect us to believe he can meet this forecast for economic growth this year or will he have to stand here at the

Peter Hoskin

Fine Gael’s unenviable, uncertain victory

Oh look, the ruling Fianna Fail party is set for defeat in the Irish election. Unsurprising, for sure, but the scale of their drubbing will still be something to behold. An exit poll conducted by RTE has them in third place on only 15.1 percent of the vote – which, as Sunder Katwala points out over at Next Left, is some way down from both their traditional 40+ per cent support and the 41.6 per cent that they achieved in 2007. The same exit poll has the centre right Fine Gael party in the lead (on 36.1 per cent), their best performance for 28 years, although not enough for an

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Politics: Europe poisons the lot of the minister

Have the Tories rediscovered the Right instincts? If power without responsibility has been the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages, then the lot of a government minister can seem like responsibility without power. In private moments, ministers complain that they are overwhelmed by paperwork and have to drive change through a recalcitrant Civil Service. Members of the coalition Cabinet are rapidly finding out that the answer to the question ‘who governs Britain?’ is not as simple as they’d hoped. Nothing new there. Relative impotence is the perennial complaint of new ministers. They quickly come to appreciate that Yes, Minister was as much fact as fiction. Today, however, there are

Friday

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

Mandy on Milly

Peter Mandelson’s publishers have sent me extracts from the updated  paperback edition of his memoirs, The Third Man,  which is out on 3 March. Here are his thoughts on Ed Miliband’s victory over David. ‘It was a photo finish [and] I felt terrible for David. I felt even more worried for the party. This was not because I doubted Ed’s ability to become a strong or effective leader: he is a highly intelligent and thoughtful individual. It was because of the campaign message on which he had built his victory. It was left to Neil Kinnock, who had always found it hard to celebrate New Labour’s successes, to drive home

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Inflation: how the nightmare will continue

Each month, inflation numbers come out and seem to surprise everyone – except the chosen few who have access to the forecasts. So I thought we’d share with CoffeeHousers what is all too seldom put on public record: forecasts for inflation and base interest rates. It might be useful to anyone thinking of taking out a fixed rate mortgage deal. These forecasts are from Michael Saunders at CitiGroup, whom I regard as one of the best in the business. Pretty much every analyst thinks that interest rates will soon start a relentless march back to 5 per cent, so these 3 per cent fixed rate deals we’re getting right now

The Spectator

The week that was | 25 February 2011

Here is a selection of posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the past week. Ed Howker reveals what the Yes campaign don’t want you know. Fraser Nelson reveals that Damian McBride has joined…CAFOD, and says that George Osborne should not spend the Treasury’s unexpected windfall. James Forsyth notes that Paddy Ashdown has gone Fox-hunting, and praises Cameron’s speech to the Kuwaiti parliament. Peter Hoskin asks how far Cameron will go to break state monopolies, and watches Gaddafi’s lethal madness. Peter Hoskin and David Blackburn unpick False Economy’s conceits about NHS job cuts. David Blackburn describes how the unfolding chaos in Libya is proving to be a challenge for the Foreign Office.

David Blackburn

Mandelson casts doubt on Miliband’s vision

The Kindly Pussycat has returned to the fray with a revised version of his memoirs. The FT’s Jim Pickard has highlighted an arresting passage about Ed Miliband’s decision to execute New Labour. ‘When Ed pronounced New Labour ‘dead’, he was not only being more categorical than was wise, but quite possibly more than he really intended. (xxi) …Even allowing for the tactical choices he had made in his bid to become leader, however, I was struck by the fact that he had given no strong clue during the campaign as to what alternative to New Labour he envisaged. He was quick to say what he was against: essentially, Tory policies

Peter Hoskin

What price a fuel duty stabiliser?

Last we heard, the government was considering what it should, and could, do to suppress rising fuel prices. I wonder whether they have now pencilled something into March’s Red Book. You see, after a swell of speculative fear triggered by events in the Middle East, the cost of oil is going up, up, up. Brent Crude touched $120 a barrel yesterday, the highest price since August 2008, although it eventually settled to around $111. Some observers predict it will soon exceed the previous record price of $150. Naturally, this threatens to unstitch the delicate fabric of the global economy – drastically rising oil prices could bring pervasive stagflation in their

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Ireland and the Kubler-Ross Model of Grief

Irish Policeman Ronan McNamara and presiding electoral officer Hugh O’Donnell carry the ballot box from the ferry on Inishfree Island, off the Donegal coast of Ireland. It will not surprise you that Myles na Gopaleen had it right: The majority of the members of the Irish parliament are professional politicians, in the sense that otherwise they would not be given jobs minding mice at the crossroads. Sadly Myles does not tell us if there would be comely maidens dancing at the crossroads too but there you go. Today’s Irish election is a queer thing indeed. Many observers have commented on a surprising lack of fury given the scale of the

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What the Libyan debacle reveals about the Civil Service

The headlines about Nick Clegg forgetting that he was running the country and the botched evacuation of British nationals from Libya have combined to make the coalition look rather incompetent, the most dangerous thing for a government to appear as. Certainly, the effort to get British people out of Libya has been a national embarrassment. The whole evacuation debacle is, though, more a tale of bureaucratic incompetence than anything else; a painful reminder that the Civil Service machine, upon which the government relies, is in bad repair. I hear that William Hague has already carpeted senior officials in the department over the whole episode. But there is still no word

Andrew Haldenby

Reforming government: the Cabinet Office

Last week Reform published its 2011 scorecard of the Coalition Government’s public service reform programme. Following the articles on the health, welfare  and education reforms, Andrew Haldenby, Reform’s Director, discusses the Cabinet Office.   The Prime Minister has put the Cabinet Office in the vanguard of his efforts to reform public services.  The Cabinet Office Structural Reform Plan gives the Cabinet Office responsibilities to reform the Civil Service, create more competitive public sector markets and reduce inefficiency” (through the operation of the Efficiency and Reform Group).  These are major objectives on which the success of the wider programme depends.  For this reason, the lack of progress should be a real

Peter Hoskin

A fraternal fix

“Now he and his leader know what it’s like to be people’s second choice,” trilled George Osborne during his recent encounter with Ed Balls over the dispatch box. But might Balls actually have been Miliband’s third choice for the shadow chancellorship? That’s the implication of a delicious little story in today’s Sun, which claims that Miliband first “tapped up” his brother, aka MiliD, when trying to replace Alan Johnson: “A Labour insider revealed: ‘Ed’s people were desperate not to give the job to Balls.’ However, Ed stopped short of offering his brother the job when David made it clear he wanted to stay on the backbenches.” If true, then it’s

Peter Hoskin

Downing Street’s bureaucratic burden

Do head over to ConservativeHome, where Tim Montgomerie has put together a comprehensive guide to the revamped Downing Street operation. I won’t spoil its considerable insights here, except to highlight this: “An analysis of papers sent to Downing Street and the Cabinet Office has revealed that just 40% are directly related to the Coalition’s programme. Roughly 30% come from the Whitehall bureaucracy and another 30% from the EU.” James makes the point in his latest politics column that Tory ministers are becoming more and more Eurosceptic as they face the EU in government. That pile of European directives in the in-tray must just be getting too much.

David Blackburn

Chaos thy name is Libya

Colonel Gaddafi’s strength appears to be diminishing: Foreign Office sources suggest that the latest YouTube footage suggests that the rebels are now 30 miles from Tripoli, there are reports of Libyan servicemen spiking their guns rather than fire on their compatriots and members of the Gaddafi family have failed to present a united front to the dissent that intends to depose them. But, chaos thy name is Libya. Communications have long been silent, except for the savage drone of state radio, conduit for Gaddafi’s prophesies of victory or martyrdom. Evacuees from Tripoli’s now hellish airport relate a city bristling with arms and testosterone – the fear is that Gaddafi and his dogs

Wednesday

David Blackburn

The emergence of a Cameron doctrine

Daniel Finkelstein makes a simple but important point in the Times today (£): a Prime Minister’s foreign policy is determined by events more than by instincts. The revolts in the Middle East are defining David Cameron’s diplomacy. The emerging policy is a realistic expression of Britain’s current domestic and international capabilities. Cameron’s speech to the Kuwaiti parliament did not match Harold Macmillan’s ‘winds of change’ speech because Britain no longer disposes of continents. Likewise, Tony Blair’s messianic tendencies belong to a past era. Colonel Gaddafi’s murderous stream of conscious could have given cause to evoke the moral certainty of an ‘ethical foreign policy’. Cameron still empathises with Blair’s cause in