Politics Archives

Friday

17 Sep 2010

Don’t Worry About the Opinion Polls

I’ve suggested that the current crop of opinion polls are meaningless. That’s not true. As a friend pointed out, they measure public opinion and that can’t be considered wholly meaningless. So let me put it another way: the “meaning” of the opinion polls is, at present, greatly over-valued by the Westminster Village. Happily, uber-expert Philip Cowley is on hand to act as an expert witness in this case: Several of my Labour-supporting friends have a spring in their step – level in the polls at last, as revealed by yesterday’s Reuters/Ipsos-MORI poll. How rubbish this new coalition government must be. It took New Labour years to lose its poll lead

Peter Hoskin

Cable: interim immigration cap is “very damaging to the UK economy”

After stumbling in his crusade for a graduate contribution, Vince Cable seemed to go a bit quiet. But this morning he’s roared back into the newspapers with another attack on coalition policy. The target of his anger is, once again, the immigration cap – but he’s being far less equivocal about it this time around. The way in which the cap is being implemented this year, he tells the FT, is “very damaging to the UK economy.” To force the point home, he says he has a “file full” of companies who are suffering because of it. And, for good measure, the word “damaging” gets deployed once or twice more.

James Forsyth

The Labour leadership contest, all over bar the voting

The Labour leadership hustings are over, tonight’s one on Question Time was the last one. As has been the case at so many previous hustings, Ed Balls was the most intellectually forceful of the contenders. Whatever you think of his arguments on the economy (and I disagree with them), he puts them across with a clarity and directness that none of the other candidates can match. It was revealing how when Ed Balls took issue with Andy Burnham’s accurate statement that there would have been ‘significant job loses’ under Labour, the others all backed away. In the contest between the two front runners, David Miliband was the more statesman-like refusing to get drawn into

Thursday

16 Sep 2010

Mark Littlewood

Finding a narrative of hope

In these grim dark days of austerity and cuts, the coalition urgently needs to find a compelling political narrative of hope and optimism. David Cameron’s Big Society rhetoric occasionally threatens to contain some philosophical depth, but suffers from the same problem as most new fangled analyses of the world. Namely, it is so fluffy that it becomes bewildering. To the government’s credit, they have managed to prepare the public for the upcoming belt tightening. This achievement is all the more remarkable given the woeful refusal of either coalition party to admit the scale of the fiscal problem facing Britain during the general election campaign. But softening up public

James Forsyth

Andrew Mitchell recasts DfiD’s role

Andrew Mitchell’s speech today at the Royal College of Defence Studies confirms me in my view that Mitchell is one of the most impressive members of the current government. Mitchell, a former soldier, is moving the Department for International Development away from being the government wing of Oxfam and into a department that plays its part in delivering Britain’s foreign policy objectives. The main theme of his speech today was that DfID and the Ministry of Defence have to work more closely together in post-conflict environments. For instance, Mitchell has cut aid to middle income countries to redirect it to Afghanistan, where it can play a role in trying to

Peter Hoskin

Clegg gets forceful over welfare

Enter Nick Clegg with another self-assured article for a national newspaper. A few weeks ago, it was his defence of the coalition’s Budget for the FT that caught the eye. Today, it’s his case for welfare reform in the Times (£). These may be arguments, about dependency and disincentives, that you’ve heard before – but here they’re packaged in a particularly clear and persuasive way. Just what’s needed as the welfare wars, between Labour and the coalition, spill back into newsprint. Writing about the article, the Times frames it as “Nick Clegg [putting] himself on a collision course with his party” – and you can see why they might

Wednesday

15 Sep 2010

Peter Hoskin

The “progressive coalition” cuts its teeth

Trust Bob Crow to turn down the charm. Explaining why he was boycotting Mervyn King’s address to the TUC today, the RMT union boss managed to liken the Governor of the Bank of England to both the “devil” and the “Sheriff of Nottingham”. Unsurprising, perhaps – but it’s yet another reminder of why, for the Labour leadership contenders, marching in lockstep with the unions may not be such a good idea. To Harriet Harman, a Labour Party bound to Crow & Co. might be a “progressive coalition”. But to the rest of the country, it will probably look slightly left of sane. Only David Miliband, to his credit, seems to

Alex Massie

There’s No British Tea Party: Here’s Why

More on Christine O’Donnell’s stunning victory in the Delaware GOP Senate primary in due course but it’s worth pointing out that such a triumph almost certainly could not happen in Britain. Not even in our new primary-friendly Tory party. Because most of the contests called primaries in Britain are really forms of caucus, not proper primaries and even the so-called “open primaries” that have been held by postal ballot are actually only semi-open. In each case voters are offered a choice of candidates who have been approved by Tory HQ. It is not, in other words a truly open process and consequently it’s exceedingly difficult for a grass-roots rebellion to

Alex Massie

Ed Miliband is No Abraham Lincoln but David Miliband is a Little Like Hillary Clinton

Are Labour really going to make Ed Miliband their next leader? Tea leaves and whatever passes for momentum in this race suggest that this is quite possible. If the younger Miliband – the one who, allegedly, can speak “normal” – does prevail then what hesitant conclusions may be drawn? 1. David Miliband’s support at Westminster may have hurt his chances in the other constituencies. Miliband Major ran – in as much as this strolling leadership contest ever amounted to a race – on experience, authority and the sense that he was the inevitable victor. But as Hillary Clinton can tell you, experience, authority and inevitability don’t count for as much

Lloyd Evans

Citizen Castro rains on Comrade Hattie’s last parade

There was praise for Fidel Castro – of all people – at PMQs today. That the tribute came from a Tory MP must make this a unique event in the annals of parliament. Castro’s recent admission that Cuba’s state monopolies might profit from a little nibbling around the edges gave Priti Patel, (Con, Witham), a bright idea. She asked the prime minister if the Marxist cigar-enthusiast might visit the TUC Conference to share his economic vision with the brothers. The PM, who seemed calm, fresh and genially bullish today, caught the joke and ran with it. He offered his own tribute to the semi-retired dictator. ‘Even Comrade Castro is on

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 15 September 2010

Stay tuned for live coverage of today’s Cameron vs Harman clash from 1200. 1200: A prompt start. Cameron begins with condolences for the fallen in Afghanistan. Clegg grabs the PM by the elbow as he sits down – making sure there wasn’t an embarrassing lap-sitting moment, I think. 1201: Julian Smith asks whether it is “irresponsible” of Labour to back union strikes. Cameron says it is, natch, 1203: A dignified start by Harman. She passes on her congratulations for the Cameron’s new baby, and her condolences for the death of his father. Her question is about what progress the government is making on tackling human trafficking. 1204: Cameron quips that

David Blackburn

A Whitehall cabal has Fox by the short and curlies

The Defence Select Committee delivers a familiar litany this morning. The Strategic Defence Review (a structural reform of Britain’s defence establishment) is being driven by savings not threat, consultation has been insufficient and cuts will be implemented at terrifying speed. The committee’s report concludes that the review will be to the detriment of Britain’s defence capabilities. Liam Fox’s summer battle with Downing Street has been overshadowed by IDS’ belligerence. In truth Fox has already lost. The National Security Council, the Treasury and the Cabinet Office have put him in a strait-jacket and hijacked his review. The opportunity to reform procurement and phase out obsolete heavy merchandise and training, both of

Peter Hoskin

YouGov has Labour and the Tories at their closest since October 2007

Factor in the usual caveats about polling so soon after a change of government, but the latest Sun/YouGov poll is still pretty eyecatching. It has the Tories on 40 percent, Labour on 39 and the Lib Dems on 12 – the smallest gap between the two main parties since the election-that-never-was in October 2007. Here’s a graph of the the two parties’ positions since the beginnning of the general election campaign: The Pollmaster General, Anthony Wells, suggests that Labour will overtake the Tories any day now.

Tuesday

14 Sep 2010

Kate Maltby

The tensions undermining a pact

The announcement, yesterday, of Nick Boles’ proposal for a Lib-Con electoral pact conveniently coincided with the opening of an election court hearing into a particularly unpleasant battle between former Labour minister Phil Woolas and his Lib Dem opponent, Councillor Elwyn Watkins. The most serious allegations against Mr Woolas, who won the seat with a 103 vote majority at the last general election, are that he deliberately lied in accusing Mr Watkins of being “in league with extremist Muslims … and prepared to condone death threats against Mr Woolas,” and that in election pamphlets he falsely accused Mr Watkins of receiving funding from abroad. There will, no doubt, be some in

James Forsyth

The Pope might be coming but the Milibands are still Topic A at Westminster

Parliament is busy preparing to receive the Pope, the red carpet has been put down in Westminster Hall and the Commons authorities have announced that they are closing all the bars down from 2pm on Friday. But it is earthly matters that are still preoccupying people here. As you walk through the gothic arches, you see little clumps of people gathering together trying to work out which Miliband will be the next leader of the Labour party. At the moment, the race really does seem too close to call. But it is just worth reflecting for a second how crucial the new leader’s first few weeks will be. 3 days

David Blackburn

A Tory-Liberal pact is possible if the coalition lasts the distance

The outrider has returned to stables. Nick Boles MP, a one-time Cameroon confidante tipped for promotion, formally introduced the possibility of a Tory-Lib Dem electoral pact, it made a few cursory headlines and then David Cameron and Nick Clegg promptly denied any such intention. It had the appearance of the classic three-card trick. A formal alliance or non-aggression pact is highly unlikely unless the coalition survives to 2015. The government will collapse before then if enough Liberal Democrats believe its record is indefensible. However, if it doesn’t then the parties must defend their joint record and in doing so will offer a collaborative future. The alternative is absurd. Nick Clegg

Peter Hoskin

Cameron readies his forces

Carry on cutting – and carry on making the case for cuts. That’s the message that David Cameron drilled into his ministers during a political session of Cabinet this afternoon. Paul Waugh has a typically precise account of what was said, and the Press Association has a decent round-up, but the key observation is just how forceful Cameron was in making his point. The government, he said, should take on the “vested interests” arguing against cuts – and the Budget was the right action taken at the right time. The PM, you sense, is limbering up for a fight. As Ben Brogan suggests over at the Telegraph, Cameron is right

Alex Massie

There Will Be A Tory-Lib Dem Pact (Of Some Kind)

Sunder Katwala is not convinced by Nick Boles’ suggestion that the coalition should fight the next election on a joint-ticket. He sniffs a Tory ploy: What [Boles] is offering the Liberal Democrats is simply the chance to lash themselves to the mast of the Coalition’s austerity agenda – and to collude in an attempt to keep it going even if the voters don’t want it – with little in return beyond losing their political identity to become a semi-permanent National Liberal wing of a new Tory-dominated alliance. Over at Platform 10, however, David Skelton is open to the notion: The coalition has worked so far because it has caught into

Ed Howker

Barber, Blanchflower and the fake debate on double dip

Watch or read much of the economics coverage in Britain and you sometimes get the sense that we’re entering the final round of a peculiar game. Let’s call it ‘Russian Roulette for Economists’. The rules are simple: teams of academics and economically-literate politicos line up on either side of an issue and hurl abuse at one another. The winner will be declared when something significant changes in the macro-economic position of the UK. The game was played when Britain entered the ERM (those who said it would be a disaster won). The current double dip debate is another example. This time, the principal players on one side are the former

Ed Holmes

Reforming Britain’s antiquated industrial relations laws

The TUC Conference rumbles on with some rather blood-curdling statements about the future of industrial relations in Britain. The RMT leader Bob Crow called for a campaign of civil disobedience and spoke of ‘confronting… the enemy’. The PCS’ Mark Serwotka has spoken of a ‘campaign of resistance the likes of which we will not have seen in this country for decades.’ Perhaps for good measure, the TUC also took the opportunity to attack our recent report on modernising industrial relations. The trade unions are arguing vociferously against not only the very clear necessity for reductions in public expenditure, but also any change in industrial relations procedures which are largely obsolete