Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

Steerpike Steerpike

Sir Keir suffers worst approval rating plunge of any new PM

While the Labour lot try and prepare the nation for Wednesday’s Budget announcement, the Prime Minister has had yet more bad news. According to one poll, Sir Keir Starmer has had the biggest drop in approval ratings after winning an election than, um, any new PM in modern times. Talk about a short honeymoon… Starmer saw a post-election high of +11 in July, according to More in Common, after his party’s landslide victory. But his positive reviews weren’t to last long — and since then, less than four months into the top job, the survey of 1,012 adults shows his rating has plummeted by 49 points to -38. In fact,

Robin Culshaw

Trump promises safety to Middle America

I have spent the past week travelling across ‘swing country’. Namely Pennsylvania and Ohio – two of the crucial states which will decide the coming US election. The former is important for the presidential race, the latter for control of the Senate. I spent time following a pollster, joining interviews and focus groups. The first stop was an affluent Pennsylvania suburb near Allentown. In 2020, the county (Lehigh) broke for the Democrats in a closely contested race – the party won just 53 per cent – and it is often seen as a bellwether for the national mood. In the suburb I met Rebecca and her family. Their sprawling bungalow-style

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Britain’s population problem cannot be ignored

Never before have English and Welsh mothers produced so few babies. New data, released by the ONS yesterday, shows the number of babies expected to be born per woman last year fell to 1.44 – down from 1.49 the year before and the lowest recorded level since these things began to be officially tracked in 1938. For a population to ‘naturally’ sustain itself (e.g. without immigration) an average fertility rate of 2.1 is needed. Looking at the raw numbers, fewer babies were born than at any time since the late 1970s. Last year just 591,072 births were registered in England and Wales and the fertility rate has been falling consistently for the

Patrick West

Labour will regret its war on bus passengers

Aside from debates as to what actually constitutes a ‘working person’, the Labour government does ostensibly seem clear as to whom it wants to shield in the forthcoming Budget: the less well-off and those who continue to struggle financially. It is therefore perverse that it should remove a benefit that has been a blessing to precisely that demographic: the £2 cap on bus fares. The government looks set to be making another long-term error This measure, an initiative of the last Tory government, was introduced last January and implemented in England outside areas that already have devolved powers over transport. It’s been an invaluable aid for those who use the

Andrew Tettenborn

Street lights are costing Britain too much

The East Riding of Yorkshire is flat, prosperously agricultural and slightly off the beaten track. Deeply conservative, it isn’t the place you would normally look for originality. Over the weekend, however, its county council announced an inspired experiment. It wants to see what happens if it gets rid of large numbers of its street lights. Not the lighting in town centres, you understand, but the endless lines of light-stalks you see on the main roads that wind their way between the cornfields. As a trial over the next three years, it plans to switch off hundreds of the lamp-stalks that march grimly alongside the road that connects York and the Humber Bridge.

Monday

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Why is Lindsay Hoyle telling off Rachel Reeves?

Is the Speaker being a bit precious with his complaint about pre-Budget announcements? Lindsay Hoyle made a statement in the Commons this afternoon in which he issued a stinging rebuke to Rachel Reeves and other ministers for going ‘around the world telling everybody’ about significant Budget policies, rather than making the announcements to MPs first. He was very clear that he meant the Chancellor in particular, saying: While this can hardly be described as a leak – the Chancellor herself gave interviews on the record, and on camera – the premature disclosure of the contents of the Budget has always been regarded as a supreme discourtesy to the House; indeed,

Matthew Lynn

Volkswagen’s woes are no surprise

Where did it all go wrong for Volkswagen? The German carmaker is said to be planning to shut several factories and lay off thousands of staff. Workers who do keep their jobs could see their pay cut by as much as ten per cent, according to VW’s top employee representative, Daniela Cavallo. If the revelations are correct, the three factories will be the first to be shuttered in the company’s 87-year history. It is hard to overestimate the scale of the shock that the claims about VW, a company that has always been emblematic of the country’s post-war economic miracle, has delivered to the German economy today. Yet Germany –

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Speaker torches Reeves on Budget leaks

Sir Keir Starmer is known to detest leaks – but what about when it is the Prime Minister leaking himself? Watching Starmer’s big speech this morning, Mr S was perplexed to see the Labour premier confirming reports that his Chancellor intends to hike the national bus fare cap on Wednesday from £2 to £3. Shurely shome mistake? Budget announcements are of course meant to be made in the House of Commons chamber, with Hugh Dalton famously resigning as Chancellor in 1947 after details were published in an evening newspaper before his speech. Indeed, it was just, er, three years ago that the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, tore into Boris Johnson’s government

Philip Patrick Philip Patrick

Japan could soon lose one of its best assets

What now? This is the question on everyone’s lips here in Tokyo after a dramatic general election which looks to have inflicted a potentially grievous wound on Japan’s eternal party of government. The Liberal Democratic Party (known as Jiminto) led by the barely broken-in new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost its overall majority, even if its partners, the Buddhism-associated Komeito, are factored into the equation.  The result was a mess In one of the worse nights in its history, the LDP, who have held power for 65 out of the last 69 years, lost 68 seats. They remain the largest party overall but will now have to scramble to put

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Will the OBR’s £22bn ‘black hole’ review vindicate the Tories?

Are the details of the alleged £22 billion fiscal black hole about to be revealed? In addition to providing assessments and forecasts for the UK economy alongside the Chancellor’s Budget on Wednesday, the Office for Budget Responsibility is also set to publish its ‘review’ into Rachel Reeves’ claim that the Tories covered up a multi-billion pound black hole in the public finances – one that she was only able to unearth after she entered the Treasury. Since Reeves first made the accusation in July, there has been lots of speculation about how the figure was compiled – and exactly where the money went. The Treasury has not released a breakdown

Alexander Kolyandr

Russia is creeping towards stagflation

The Central Bank of Russia raised its benchmark rate to a twenty-year high of 21 per cent on Friday – and has indicated that it could go even higher. Even Vladimir Putin, a notorious serial boaster, won’t be caught bragging about this tell-tale sign of a not-so-healthy economy. The writing is on the wall: Russia is getting closer to stagflation – a no-growth, high-inflation economy.  An interest rate this high is unprecedented. In February 2003, still fresh in his job, Putin launched reforms to kick-start the Russian economy after the 1998 financial meltdown; the central bank brought its refinancing rate to 20 per cent and has kept it below that level ever

Steerpike Steerpike

Tommy Robinson jailed for 18 months

The prisons are bursting but it seems there is room for at least one more convict. Tommy Robinson has today been jailed for 18 months after admitting contempt of court by repeating false claims against a Syrian refugee. Robinson admitted ten breaches of a High Court order made in 2021 during a hearing in Woolwich Crown Court, with lawyers for the Solicitor General accusing him of ‘undermining’ the rule of law. Barristers for Robinson said it was his ‘principles that have brought him before the court’ – which is, er, one way of looking at it. Today’s hearing was the culmination of a five-year series of events which began in

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Keir Starmer is borrowing from Nick Clegg’s playbook

Keir Starmer has given up trying to define what a ‘working person’ is after last week’s debacle, announcing at the start of his pre-Budget speech today that working people know who they are. The Prime Minister said: ‘I know some people want to have a debate about this, and I know there will always be an exception that proves the rule. Welcome to the wonders of a diverse country. But I also know that the working people of this country know exactly who they are.’ Even though Starmer is explicitly copying the Tories in 2010, he sounded more like Nick Clegg in that era It’s a better move than attempting

Steerpike Steerpike

Will Labour return the Elgin Marbles?

They’ve handed over the Chagos Islands and are up for talking reparations. So what else of Britain’s heritage is Labour prepared to surrender? An obvious case, perhaps, is the Elgin Marbles, whose fate briefly became the subject of a major diplomatic incident involving Rishi Sunak and his Greek counterpart late last year. At PMQs, the-then Leader of the Opposition Sir Keir Starmer quipped: ‘Never mind the British Museum, it’s the Prime Minister who has obviously lost his marbles.’ But now he is in office, is this yet another issue on which Starmer is prepared to cede ground? Word reaches Mr S from Athens where the best-selling Greek newspaper seems very

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Does Rachel Reeves have to hike taxes?

Could Rachel Reeves’s ‘black hole’ be filled not through tax rises or even spending cuts but rather through getting an extra two million people into work? That is the claim this morning made by the Jobs Foundation, a think tank set up by Matthew Elliott, now Lord Elliott, who formerly ran the Taxpayers’ Alliance. Raising the employment rate from 75 per cent to 80 per cent of the working age population, it claims, would raise an extra £20 billion in tax. That is not quite the £35 billion to £40 billion worth of tax rises which we have been briefed to expect in Wednesday’s Budget, but never mind – all

James Heale James Heale

Budget week: Labour braced for backlash

13 min listen

It’s Budget week (finally)! How this week goes will set the tone for Labour’s first year in office. It’s fair to say that expectations are relatively low – with the Prime Minister himself warning of ‘painful decisions’ ahead. We know a lot of what will likely be included and Treasury sources are keen to play down talk of any Budget rabbits – suggesting a mix of the measures currently being discussed in the media. So what should we expect? And can Labour ride out the week unscathed? Also on the podcast, Labour have suspended the whip for Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, after he appeared to threaten a

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

When will Sally Rooney boycott Britain?

I have a question for Sally Rooney. Why are you perfectly happy to engage with cultural institutions in the UK, despite the various mad wars us Brits have waged in recent years, but you dodge like the plague cultural institutions in Israel because Israel is fighting a war in Gaza? Rooney, the celebrated Irish author of chick lit for people with PhDs, has reportedly put her name to a letter calling for a boycott of Israeli cultural institutions that are ‘complicit in genocide’. Hundreds of other writers with virtue to advertise have apparently signed too. Arundhati Roy, Percival Everett, Rachel Kushner and others all say they will forswear Israeli ‘publishers,

Dalibor Rohac

Georgia’s elections didn’t have to pan out this way

The news that came out of Georgia late on Saturday was as saddening as it was predictable. For weeks, the country’s ruling party, the Russia-aligned Georgian Dream (GD), were advertising that they saw no alternative to staying in power following the rigged parliamentary election – promising a ban on opposition parties and even ‘Nuremberg trials’. If there is any surprise at all, it is the sheer brazenness with which GD tilted the results in its favour. There were widespread violations of vote secrecy, including tracking voters outside polling stations, verbal threats and violence. There is evidence of vote buying, duplicitous use of ID cards, marking of ballots (making votes for parties other than

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Keir Starmer’s Budget reality check

It’s Budget week in Westminster. Over three months after Keir Starmer triumphed in the general election, his Chancellor Rachel Reeves will this week set out the direction of the Labour government for the coming years in her first ever Budget. It’s fair to say that expectations are relatively low – with the Prime Minister himself warning of painful decisions ahead. Meanwhile, Treasury sources are keen to play down talk of any Budget rabbits, suggesting a mix of the measures currently being discussed in the media. Starmer will be trying to offer a narrative as to why tough decisions need to be taken The one confirmed Budget measure is a change

Robin Ashenden

I fear for Georgia’s future

Following this weekend’s fraughtly awaited election ‘results’ in Georgia – as important for the country’s direction as any since the end of the Cold War – a potentially explosive situation is developing. While exit polls suggested the Georgian Dream (the incumbent, pro-Kremlin party) would gain no more than 42 per cent to the collective opposition’s 58 per cent, Sunday morning saw GD leader Bidzina Ivanishvili declaring victory and claiming 54 per cent of the vote. ‘It is rare for any party anywhere in the world to achieve such success in such a difficult situation,’ Ivanishvili crowed.   Yet amidst widespread allegations of rigged ballots, intimidation and voter fraud, opposition parties are refusing to accept