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Zack Polanski’s insane economics

When the ubiquitous Green party leader Zack Polanski was on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg show singing the praises of wealth taxes last month, he said something that got my spider-sense tingling: ‘This isn’t about creating public investment, we can do that anyway, we don’t need to tax the wealthy to do that.’ On the face of it, this is a slightly odd thing to say. Other lefties, such as Richard Burgon MP, have argued that a wealth tax could be used to give more money to Our Precious NHS or remove the two child benefit cap. Polanski is right to say that we can have more ‘public investment’

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Cutting Britain’s giant welfare bill would be an act of kindness

Does having money really matter that much? There are those, usually with quite a bit of it, who want us to care less about materialism. But, unequivocally, money really does matter – not because of any status it supposedly brings, but for the freedom it buys: freedom to choose how we live and how we look after others. Considering this, it seems that the deep disillusionment with mainstream politicians in recent years stems from a protracted and ongoing period of stagnant living standards over which they have presided. But the truth is that the average person has not got poorer since the global financial crisis. They have got a little

Do the markets care if Rachel Reeves stays or goes?

When the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer gave his full backing to his Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the brief panic in the markets following her tearful performance in the House of Commons subsided. Gilt yields stopped rising, the pound clawed back some lost ground, and the markets recovered their nerve. It was easy to spin that as bond investors backing Reeves. But is that really true? The markets have seemingly already lost confidence in the Chancellor. They simply prefer stability to chaos, and they quite rightly fear that any of the plausible alternatives will prove even worse. Bond investors have already lost faith in the Chancellor ‘She will be the Chancellor

Martin Vander Weyer

What hope is there for today’s unlucky graduates?

I’m fresh out of advice for those now leaving university and wondering how on earth they’re going to make a living and live their dreams. This week’s bad news (from the job search website Adzuna) was that graduate and other entry-level vacancies have fallen almost a third since the launch of the AI chatbot. Should this unlucky post-Covid cohort stay on at ‘uni’ for another degree? Or does that mean racking up student debt without enhancing employability? I used to urge everyone to go abroad in their twenties before family responsibilities overtake. But where to now? Hong Kong and mainland China are out; it’s the wrong time to go to

James Kirkup

Labour MPs should thank – not blame – Reeves for trying to cut welfare

Labour MPs blaming Rachel Reeves over welfare cuts are like teenagers blaming their mum for telling them to wear a coat when there are bloody great storm clouds on the horizon. It’s silly and it won’t save them from getting soaked. But this is emerging as part of the blame game over Labour’s welfare debacle, where the party’s MPs forced the government to shred its own welfare bill by threatening to vote it down at second reading. ‘She must be toast,’ a Labour MP told the FT. The Times quotes a senior Labour source accusing Reeves of having ‘very little political acumen’. The argument, apparently, is that Reeves is at

Michael Simmons

I feel sorry for Rachel Reeves

I’m starting to feel a tiny bit sorry for the chancellor. Yes, most of the economic and fiscal problems we’re facing have been exacerbated – if not caused – by current Treasury policy. But Labour’s welfare reforms, flawed and limited as they were, at least acknowledged that the welfare bill is not just fiscally unsustainable but also morally unacceptable. The idea that we should simply accept rising worklessness among the young – 25 to 34-year-olds are now the fastest-growing group on sickness benefits, with claims up 69 per cent in five years – is indefensible in a supposedly compassionate country. Much of this is driven by the medicalisation of anxiety and

If AstraZeneca quits the London Stock Exchange, it will be a disaster

It was already a bad enough week for the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, what with the collapse of their welfare reforms. But now news has leaked that AstraZeneca’s CEO Sir Pascal Soriot has reportedly discussed moving its listing from London to New York. There is nothing official yet, and no decision has been made. But for the boss of Britain’s most valuable listed company to even contemplate upping sticks spells trouble for the UK economy. It is not hard to blame him. Over-regulation has turned the London market into a relative backwater. Meanwhile, Wall Street has been booming. The business would be more highly

Cutting the cash Isa allowance screams of desperation

The economy has stagnated, foreign investment has collapsed, the non-doms have fled and the entrepreneurs are following them. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers are clamouring for more spending. Not much has been going right for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. But she has a grand new plan: increase taxes on saving. Reeves has been reduced to scrabbling around for money wherever she can find it Reeves is expected to announce later this month that the amount that can be put into a tax-free cash Isa every year will be slashed from the current £20,000 to as little as £4,000, and perhaps even less. The decision will be dressed up as encouraging saving in

Simon Cook

Labour MPs need a reality check on Britain’s ballooning benefits bill

‘No one votes Labour to cut the welfare state. People vote Labour to grow the welfare state. That’s the role of the party.’ That’s what John McTernan, Labour strategist, said on Coffee House Shots last week. He’s absolutely correct, of course. But the ballooning cost of the benefits bill means that Labour now faces an uncomfortable decision, for which many of its MPs seem ill prepared. The total cost for Personal Independence Payments (PIP) alone is expected to reach £35 billion by the end of this decade, up from £16 billion in 2019-20 and £26.5 billion in 2024-25. The total benefits bill, including the state pension, universal credit and other

Michael Simmons

Will the welfare bill really push 150,000 into poverty?

Labour MPs are obviously going to panic when told their votes might plunge just one person into poverty – let alone 250,000. That was the original estimate for the fallout from Liz Kendall’s reforms to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and Universal Credit. Yesterday, the DWP released a revised figure after Starmer caved to a rebellion by 126 MPs. The new number? Some 150,000 pushed into poverty. A marginally better headline, at a £2.5 billion cost to the taxpayer, but still enough to spook Labour’s already jittery backbenches. Frustratingly, these numbers, put out by the government, are completely meaningless. The government’s chosen metric, ‘relative poverty’, tells us far more about income

Northern Ireland is still paying a heavy price for Brexit

This week heralds the arrival in Northern Ireland of yet more overregulation, bureaucratic overreach, and political incompetence. No, Keir Starmer isn’t making an unannounced visit to Belfast. From this month, many thousands of food products imported from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will have to display warnings on their packaging highlighting that these goods are not to be brought into the European Union. The reason why is essentially a bungled Brexit deal for which thousands of businesses – and millions of customers – will pay the price. It is yet another reason for British firms to stop doing business in Northern Ireland The Windsor Framework – the result of the UK’s

Politicians, not ChatGPT, caused the recruitment slump

The machines are already smarter and better organised than humans. They never ask for a pay rise, and they don’t ask any awkward questions about the company’s environmental record. An artificial employee is, in many ways, the model employee. But is artificial intelligence really responsible for a recent fall in entry-level jobs, as new figures from Adzuna, the online jobs board, would have you believe? Or is the Chancellor Rachel Reeves as much to blame as the ChatGPT founder Sam Altman? It may be fashionable to blame AI, but it is wrong It is certainly looking like a tough year to graduate from university. According to figures from Adzuna, the

Mark Galeotti

Will Putin really rein in Russia’s defence spending?

At the very time when those warmongering Nato nations are pledging to raise their defence spending substantially, that doveish peacenik Vladimir Putin is promising to reduce his. It’s hard to know which of these two commitments is less plausible, but those anticipating the cranking down of the Russian war economy any time soon are going to have to wait rather longer. At the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin said that: We are planning to reduce defence spending. For next year and the year after that and so on – for the next three years – we are planning to do so, although there is not yet a

Michael Simmons

Britain is facing a doomy economic future

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has confirmed the economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the first three months of the year. The figures, released this morning, are the ONS’s second attempt at estimating growth in the first quarter and, unusually, the GDP growth number was unrevised from the initial estimate. The strong growth – the fastest pace in a year – between January and March could be the last bit of economic good news Chancellor Rachel Reeves is able to celebrate this year as this set of numbers cover the period before her £25 billion raid on employer national insurance came into effect. It does, however, confirm that

Michael Simmons

Revealed: the dodgy data undermining Universal Credit

As Sir Keir Starmer offers concessions to 126 rebels to water down his welfare reform bill, a scandal that undermines the entire Universal Credit system goes ignored. The Spectator has seen figures revealing that the HMRC data feed which powers Universal Credit payments to low-paid workers may be so error-strewn that as many as one in four claimants has been underpaid, overpaid or not paid at all. When Universal Credit was introduced 11 years ago to modernise benefits, it required a robust data system to drive it. HMRC’s answer was the ‘Real Time Information’ (RTI) system – hailed at the time as the most significant overhaul of the tax system since

The welfare state has become absurdly dysfunctional

Britain’s 12.9 million pensioners are better off financially than they have ever been, and certainly compared with the rest of the country. Their winter fuel allowance has been restored. The triple lock looks completely secure. And with the stock market close to record highs, any savings they have will be in a healthy state as well. There is just one snag. More of them are paying tax than ever before – and that is emblematic of a bloated welfare system that has become completely dysfunctional.  Another 420,000 people over the state pension age will have to pay some income tax in 2025-26, bringing the total to 8.7 million, according to

James Heale

Keir Starmer climbs down on welfare cuts

At last, Keir Starmer has bowed to the inevitable. Having first adopted a posture of defiance, then conciliation, the Prime Minister has tonight admitted capitulation on the great welfare revolt. The Guardian reports that the ringleaders of the 126 rebels who signed a wrecking amendment to the Welfare Bill are now claiming ‘massive concessions.’ It follows a tense afternoon of talks between Starmer and his MPs. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury’s finances The rebels say that they have been promised significant changes to planned cuts. These include moderating the Bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits. Starmer also

James Kirkup

Labour’s welfare rebels will regret their revolt

A Labour government facing a rebellion over welfare reform is something of a dog-bites-man story – Labour never finds this issue easy. But the nature of the current rebellion tells us something novel and revealing, not about the policy, but about the modern Member of Parliament. Yes, principle and policy matter here, but what’s really driving dissent on Labour’s backbenches is not ideology, but geography. Or more precisely, constituency geography. Many of the Labour MPs likely to defy the leadership on welfare cuts are not old lags or even rebels by temperament. Many are new to Westminster, elected in the 2024 landslide that gave Labour power. And their rebellion is not

Martin Vander Weyer

The hidden costs of Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill

One peril of a sudden adverse turn of global events is that it provides cover for bad domestic government. If confidence is knocked by fear of war, if inflation blips because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, if demand for defence spending sends budgets awry, voters may easily be persuaded that Middle East conflict, rather than Labour policy, has put the UK economy flat on its back. But that’s no excuse for proceeding with bad legislation as the world darkens – and one such item is Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill, currently under House of Lords scrutiny, which in brief summary confers fearsome powers on trade unions and creates a

Is the Bank of England turning on Rachel Reeves?

Rachel Reeves does not have many supporters left. The bond markets don’t think much of the Chancellor. Business groups have rubbished her policies, and so have many of the UK’s largest companies. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers are furious about both the chaos over the winter fuel allowance and the cuts to the welfare budget. Now, it looks as if the Bank of England may have turned on her as well, if comments from the Bank’s governor are anything to go on. We might expect Andrew Bailey to avoid any direct criticism of the Chancellor. After all, she is his boss. What’s more, a public split between the UK’s two most important

Michael Simmons

Britain is racing towards a fresh cost-of-living crisis

The poorest Brits now owe £6.6 billion in unpaid council tax – a record high and up some 85 per cent since before the pandemic. That’s according to data released this morning by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, which suggests Britain is plunging back into a cost-of-living crisis. What’s more, a report also out today by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) finds that between 2022 and 2024, some 400,000 more households slipped into arrears, taking the total number of people in debt to their local council to 1.8 million. The CSJ’s report also finds that 97 per cent of those in arrears have at least one

Without non-doms, who will pay for Labour’s bloated state?

We are not the fastest growing economy in the G7, even though the Labour party promised that we would be. We are not topping any tables for inward investment, and we have fallen to the bottom of the league for new companies listed on the stock market. Still, it is good to know that there is still one measure where the UK economy comfortably beats the rest of the world. We are now losing more millionaires than any rival nation. The exodus of wealth out of the UK, it appears, is accelerating – and very soon this is going to turn into a big problem for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves.