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Michael Simmons

Why the Bank of England may welcome job losses

Interest rates have been held at 4.25 per cent. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by six to three to hold rates after cutting them in May. The move mirrors that of the US Federal Reserve, which yesterday held rates for the fourth time in a row. Their decision came despite badgering from President Trump, desperate for a rate cut as inflation remains hard to tame and forecasts predict sluggish growth and rising unemployment. In Britain, the cost of borrowing on credit cards rose to its highest ever level on record in the second quarter of the year, according to Moneyfacts – despite the rate cut from

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Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Who cares about the cold old?

When I was a child, we lived in a two-up, two-down terraced slum in Walthamstow, East London with bombsites at the back. My father made me a doll’s house by dividing a box into four for the rooms. One year when we hadn’t any coal, I watched my doll’s house, disassembled, burning in the living room grate. I couldn’t grumble. I had asthma and for the first couple of years of my life there was no NHS. Just being alive was a bloody miracle. I rather admired the glittering ice patterns on the inside of my bedroom window.  I was cold then, and I am cold now. I had hoped things might improve in the

Freddy Gray

Are Trump’s tariffs really that bad?

34 min listen

The Spectator’s economics editor Kate Andrews and Social Democratic Party leader William Clouston join Freddy Gray to try and make sense of Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He has since threatened the European Union, and has warned the UK. Is this a negotiation tactic or something more? What political philosophy underpins the decision? And what will the impact be? Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy.

Starmer has much to gain from cosying up to Donald Trump

Donald Trump loves giving two fingers to the world’s great political brains. Before the US election, for example, Rory Stewart predicted that Kamala Harris would strut to victory. The sage of the centrist dads had egg on his face when the Donald won with 77 million votes. But now he’s in power, there’s a less likely – and considerably more impressive – commentator Trump is posthumously contradicting: Immanuel Kant. In his 1795 essay ‘Perpetual Peace’ (which any undergraduate student of politics will be painfully familiar with), Kant posited that a world made up of constitutional republics is the only possible precondition for a lasting global peace. It is this principle that

Kate Andrews

Donald Trump kicks off the tariff wars

He did it, Joe! Following on from the $79 billion worth of tariffs he implemented in his first term – which went largely untouched by Joe Biden’s Administration –  last night Donald Trump made good on his election promise to opt for another round of tariffs: this time, a 25 per cent tax on imports from Canada and Mexico, with China facing an additional 10 per cent levy on its goods. Despite whispers that the President might water down his plans in the last hours, he carved out very few exceptions for his new tax orders, which include Canadian oil and energy supply. It is now expected that America will

Ross Clark

Liz Kendall’s benefits crusade could make or break Labour’s fortunes

Could Liz Kendall turn out to be the most significant figure of Keir Starmer’s government, and a Chancellor in the making? When I wrote on the Work and Pensions Secretary’s proposed reforms here in November, I was sceptical that Labour really had much intention of pushing through benefits cuts, not least because the party had spent the past 14 years shouting ‘austerity’ every time the Tories so much as proposed to cut a bean from the benefits bill. Starmer himself has accused the previous government of “turning on the poorest in our society” when it proposed to end the temporary £20 weekly bonus added to benefits during Covid. Kendall has gained

Ross Clark

Sacrificing farmland for net zero is a big mistake

Yesterday it was a court ruling to invalidate licences for oil and gas extraction in the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields. This morning comes another perverse consequence of Britain’s legally-binding net zero target. Environment Secretary Steve Reed is to announce that he intends 9 per cent of farmland in England to be taken out of production in order to help achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This continues a rewilding programme set up by the last government. From the point of view of achieving the net zero target it makes perfect sense; in fact it would make even more sense to take 100 per cent of farmland out of production

Ross Clark

Britain is not ready to give up North Sea oil and gas

Ed Miliband seems to have gone missing since Rachel Reeves announced her ambition for a third runway at Heathrow yesterday. Just before he disappeared, he mumbled that ‘of course’ he wouldn’t be resigning over the issue – in spite of threatening to do just that when he was climate secretary in Gordon Brown’s government. But then who needs Ed Miliband to thwart government growth plans when we have the courts to do it for him? This morning, Lord Ericht in the Scottish Court of Session hammered another great brass nail into the coffin of the North Sea. He ruled that licences granted to extract oil and gas from the Rosebank

Ross Clark

Is Rachel Reeves right that there is no trade-off between growth and net zero?

Why is it that some lies get endlessly repeated without ever being challenged, even though they are quite obviously wrong? In her pro-growth speech today, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves asserted: ‘There is no trade-off between economic growth and net zero’. Government ministers, advisers and many others have been saying such things for years – and hardly ever do they get properly challenged. To pretend that no such trade-off exists is foolish It is easy to see why, for political reasons, you might want to argue that committing Britain to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will not make us poorer and indeed might make us wealthier. You want to

Kate Andrews

Do Rachel Reeves’s growth plans go far enough?

Has Rachel Reeves got her growth? Today’s speech from the Chancellor in Oxfordshire was not this government’s first attempt to pivot towards a more business-friendly, growth-generating narrative. But it was its best effort yet.  Starting with the highlights. Reeves threw her unabashed support behind a third runway at Heathrow, insisting that the expansion was ‘badly needed’ and that the case had never been stronger for boosting trade; the airport ‘connects us to emerging markets all over the world, opening up new opportunities for growth’. Let’s not get carried away She called on proposals to be submitted by the summer, to start a process that would ensure the fastest and best-value

Why Britain needs growth

‘Growth’ – the focus of the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ speech this morning – can be a confusing word. It’s intangible, obscure, hard to visualise. It happens slowly, often imperceptibly, over a political cycle – when it happens at all. The changes needed to achieve it can be tough and involve trade-offs. Often voters feel those changes will not directly benefit them, or may even make their lives worse – whether it’s new housing developments, HS2, a new runway at Heathrow (which Reeves backed) or new nuclear power stations. For anyone who stood on the doorstep during the last election, we know that making and doing more things can be a hard

Why Rachel Reeves’ growth plan is doomed

The wait is over. After six months in government, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has decided that today is the day to step forward and pull the big lever marked ‘growth’. In a widely-trailed speech, she has outlined all the different ways her government is going to get the economy moving again. There is just one snag. The lever isn’t attached to anything. In reality, Reeves doesn’t have a clue where growth comes from – and that means her big speech this morning won’t change anything.  Reeves has, at least, finally got round to detailing how she plans to make the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7. Cynics might wonder why

Rachel Reeves can’t ‘regulate for growth’

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) are under pressure to reduce red tape in the financial sector. “We’ve told our regulators they need to regulate for growth, not just for risk,” the Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said. But the idea that tweaking regulations will somehow unlock growth is a fallacy. The idea that tweaking regulations will somehow unlock growth is a fallacy The problem is that these ungoverned and rogue regulators are manned by second-rate lawyers and special interest groups who present their ideas as mainstream. They have never facilitated growth and have created a labyrinth of rules that suffocate the UK’s financial services industry, serving

Michael Simmons

Is the UK prepared to welcome one million migrants a year?

One million people will migrate to the UK every year this decade. The result: the UK population will grow by nearly five million. Population projections, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, show Britain’s population rising from an estimated 67.6 million now to 72.5 million in the middle of 2032 – driven almost entirely by migration.  Whilst the number of births and deaths will be roughly the same (6.8 million) in the next seven years, ONS statisticians estimate 10 million people will migrate to the UK with only five million due to leave. That will put net migration at 340,000 every year from the middle of 2028. 

How DeepSeek can help Britain

Sometimes a new technology comes along that immediately shakes the world. The release this week of the new Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) tool, DeepSeek-R1, is one such moment. Despite Washington’s efforts to restrict Beijing’s development of AI, including an export ban on advanced microchips, researchers in China have created an AI tool that not only exceeds the performance of American AI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, but does so at a fraction of the cost. If we are to believe the hype, it took just $6 million (£5 million) to build DeekSeep-R1, compared to more than $100 million (£80 million) for ChatGPT. This is the equivalent of building the fastest Formula

Kate Andrews

Will Rachel Reeves walk the walk on going for growth?

On the face of it, the Chancellor’s big growth speech tomorrow could be one of this government’s most significant interventions yet. If Rachel Reeves is serious about starting the building process for a third runway at Heathrow – she is expected to endorse the idea formally tomorrow – she will be single-handedly overturning more than a decade of Nimby consensus under the Tories that such projects simply were politically impossible to carry out. The same goes for her pledge to finally get some homes built, and to ‘take on regulators, planning processes and opposition’ to the growth consensus. These also seemed like an impossible task for the governments that came

DeepSeek has brought China’s ‘Sputnik moment’

In the years since ChatGPT’s debut, the world of artificial intelligence development has been defined by a single obsession: scale. Companies have raced to build ever-larger models, train on datasets of unimaginable size, and spend billions on the infrastructure required to sustain this rapid growth. The logic has been simple: bigger is better. The pursuit of scale has inflated the industry, driving massive valuations. Nvidia – the shovel and picks provider of this new age – rose to a trillion-dollar valuation fuelled by its GPUs being indispensable for AI development. Over the weekend, Meta announced plans for a data centre spanning half the size of Manhattan, further reinforcing the industry’s commitment

Has DeepSeek popped the AI bubble?

The arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada in 2018, and the ensuing United States ban on high-end semiconductor exports to China, transformed Donald Trump’s “trade war” into a “tech war”. At the time, the US clearly felt it had a comparative advantage in technology, and that if it had to fight a battle against China, then picking tech as the battlefield made good sense. In September 2021, US commerce secretary Gina Raimondo, declared that: “If we really want to slow down China’s rate of innovation, we need to work with Europe”. As a result, Europe was roped into a cold war most European businesses – not

Michael Simmons

Will Chinese AI get the Treasury off the hook?

The launch of the Chinese chatbot DeepSeek has caused turmoil in the markets. The release of China’s newest AI – which appears to work as effectively as programmes developed in the West – saw tech stocks plummet when the market opened today. It hasn’t helped that DeepSeek was made for $6 million: pennies compared to its competition. All assumptions about this technology – the required parts, the assumed costs – have fallen apart and investors are panicking over what was already a muddled future for the development of AI. But in the midst of market turmoil, there is always a degree of stability. As markets lose confidence in emerging tech