Economy

There is a big danger in today’s government borrowing figures for September being a little less bad than was expected by many observers. It will lead to claims that the Chancellor has enjoyed a ‘windfall’ prior to next week’s Budget, therefore lessening the need for spending cuts. No, there is no windfall. Until recent years, the idea that the government would have to borrow £16.6 billion in a single month would have been received with horror. True, September is not generally a great month for government finances, and the level of borrowing in the year to September – at £79.6 billion – is only around half the size of the

As Rachel Reeves prepares what is potentially the most difficult Budget in a generation, a question occurs: what if the Conservatives had, somehow, won the election? Historians hate counterfactuals, considering them unhelpful parlour-games. Personally, I enjoy a good ‘what if’ – not least because they can help put current political events in context. In that spirit, I’m pleased to present here the October 2024 Budget speech that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt might give in a parallel universe where the Conservatives remained in office after the election. As well a Budget address, this is also my resignation speech ‘Madam Deputy Speaker, it gives me no great pleasure to present this Budget statement

When Rachel Reeves’s ambition was to find £22 billion, it was already clear that she would need to find more revenue than what was expected to come from the relatively small take hikes the party announced it would pull pre-election. When that number was upgraded to £40 billion, there was no denying that a big tax hike was coming, the kind that tends to come from the major revenue raisers: income tax, National Insurance, or VAT. Despite being a stealth tax, will it go unnoticed? Of course Labour ruled out hikes to these three taxes with its tax ‘triple lock’ in the election manifesto. So the party has had to

If the public is worried about what lies in store in Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, there are few signs of it yet in their shopping habits. The latest retail sales figures, released by the Office for National Statistics this morning, show that sales volumes were up by 0.3 per cent in September. Over the three months to September – a more reliable figure as it is based on a lot more data – sales were up a very strong 1.9 per cent. It seems that the long covid winter in the retail world may finally be coming to an end: though sales volumes in September were still 0.2 per cent down

Dubai, Italy or perhaps the Bahamas? Many multi-millionaires are discussing where they should flee to as the Rachel Reeves prepares to raid their bank accounts in the ‘Horror Budget’ scheduled for the end of this month. But not, as it turns out, Patriotic Millionaires, the group that campaigns tirelessly for higher taxes on the rich. Its members want Reeves to take more of their money. The papers are dominated by reports of wealthy entrepreneurs, and the few remaining non-doms, securing a bolt hole somewhere where Reeves will not be able to reach them, but Patriotic Millionaires has a very different message. A report out today, written by IPPR (a think

Scheduling the Budget almost four months after their election victory would have counted as a monumental misjudgment for the Labour government were it not for all the other cock-ups that turned their first 100 days into a sitcom. Still, the extended period of speculation about which taxes Rachel Reeves is really planning to raise has done no good at all to her carefully groomed reputation as a ‘serious economist’ (to quote Mark Carney) who is somehow uniquely pro-business and pro-worker. On the contrary, there have even been suggestions that she could be about to unleash chaos on the financial markets akin to the Truss-Kwarteng fiasco of two years ago. But

Is Ozempic the miracle fix for Britain’s labour market woes? This morning Health Secretary Wes Streeting has announced a £280 million investment into the UK from US pharmaceutical giant Lilly, which will include the first ‘real-world trial’ to give weight-loss jabs to people out of work. The news coincides with the publication of the latest labour market overview by the Office for National Statistics, showing the number of people out of work due to long-term sickness is still at a near-record high: 2.75 million in the three months to August. As Streeting highlights in the Daily Telegraph today, obesity is creating both a strain on the health service and on the economy. As

Despite getting off to a rocky start – including nearly losing £1 billion worth of investment – Labour’s much-anticipated Investment Summit seems to be delivering exactly what ministers had hoped for. The good news, including a combined investment of £6.3 billion from four US technology firms to expand data-centre infrastructure in Britain – is rolling in. The biggest question for plenty of businesses at today’s Summit will be about tax Business is struck, perhaps awestruck, by Labour’s commitment to slash red tape. During a panel event with the Prime Minister and ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, the tech guru expressed how ‘shocked’ he was to learn that Labour was now ‘strongly

Some find happiness through love, some through religion, others through their work or hobbies. But Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has recently revealed that he would be happy living next to a pylon. Following Ken Livingstone’s interest in newts and Jeremy Corbyn’s obsession with manhole covers, it seems prominent Labour politicians are constantly surprising us with their interests. But for Miliband there is just one snag. Near his home in Camden Borough, London, there are – no doubt to Ed’s dismay – remarkably few electricity pylons to keep him happy. Miliband – that one-time public mauler of breakfast baps – is, it seems, in a minority with this peculiar passion. In a recent poll published by the

Labour’s long-promised Employment Rights Bill may not be quite as immediately game-changing as the trade unions hoped or the business lobby feared. There will be implementation delays, with most elements not operative until 2026 – unsurprising given the expected complexity of the legislation. Further consultation will be needed before more detailed regulations are tabled. But that’s not to say that, when Angela Rayner’s new workers’ legislation does kick in, all will be business as usual. The likely creation of a nine-month probationary period for new employees – which would mitigate the effects of scrapping the two-year wait for unfair dismissal law to kick in – may assuage some of the