Economy

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The markets don’t care much about Israel and Iran

As missiles fly across the Middle East as Israel and Iran embark on what could well become a wider regional conflict, you might expect turmoil in the financial markets. After all, if the beginning of a third world war doesn’t knock a few dollars off the Apple share price it is hard to know what would. But it turns out that investors, at least for now, appear indifferent. Investors, at least for now, appear indifferent Looking at a trading screen this morning you would probably think not much was going on in the world. The FTSE100 was up 30 points. Overnight, the Nikkei was up by 1.2 per cent; and

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Ross Clark

The Next equal pay victory is a dark day for British business

Who would bother to create jobs in modern Britain? Clothing retailer Next has done plenty of job-creation over the past few years – only to be whacked by an equal pay claim brought by 3,500 shop assistants. An employment tribunal has ruled that the company was wrong to pay them less than it paid staff at its warehouses. With back pay it could cost the company £30 million. The cost of this kind of case goes far beyond the potential legal liability itself Equal pay is one thing where it concerns men and women working alongside each other in the same jobs. It is quite another when it is extended

Katy Balls

Just how ‘painful’ will Starmer’s October Budget be?

Winter is coming. That’s the message from Keir Starmer’s set-piece speech this morning from the No. 10 rose garden. After a tricky few weeks for the new Prime Minister on cronyism claims and anxiety about cuts to the winter fuel allowance, Starmer and his team attempted seize the agenda with a speech looking ahead to the months to come. However, anyone hoping for optimism will be disappointed. While Tony Blair was associated with the D:Ream anthem of ‘things can only get better’, Starmer warned that things can only get worse – at least in the short term: Frankly – things will get worse before we get better. I didn’t want

James Heale

Is the energy price cap hike bad news for Labour?

17 min listen

Ofgem, the energy regulator, has announced that the price cap will rise by 10% in October. Is this bad news for Labour, or will they be successful in framing it as part of their economic inheritance from the Conservatives? And could this strengthen opposition to the proposed change to winter fuel allowance? Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Cindy Yu.

Michael Simmons

When will Rachel Reeves take responsibility for the economy?

Is Britain finally heading for growth? This week, the Treasury released its collection of short-term forecasts for the economy. The average growth prediction for this year has reached a new high of 1.1 per cent – still unimpressive, but a significant improvement from the 0.4 per cent expected at the beginning of the year. It’s welcome news for the Chancellor. JP Morgan bumped up its forecasts this week as well, predicting 0.4 per cent growth between July and September, which equates to an annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent. Even more good news came from the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Britain’s longest-running measure of economic sentiment, which held at

Ross Clark

The energy price cap hike is just the start of Labour’s problems

As far as the economy goes, Sir Keir Starmer has enjoyed something of a golden honeymoon. True, he has had riots to deal with, but economic growth has been stronger than many anticipated, while a small uptick in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) allowed the Bank of England to reduce interest rates earlier this month. Everything appeared to be going in the right direction – until this morning, that is. Ofgem have announced that the energy price cap will rise in October by 9 per cent, adding an average of £149 to annual bills. While a rise was expected, this is a substantial rise at a time when inflation seemed

If Ford can’t crack electric cars, no one can

It had the history, the manufacturing muscle, the capital, and the brand to make it work. When Ford announced plans to create an all-electric SUV, it looked like the moment the major auto manufacturers could finally bring battery-powered cars into the mass market. Until today. The American company has abandoned its plans to build the new electric car, and announced a $1.9 billion write-off on the project citing cost pressures. The trouble is, if the company that more or less invented the mass production of cars a century ago can’t make electric vehicles (EV) work, then it is very hard to believe that any of the Western manufacturers can. If

Martin Vander Weyer

The tragic misfortune of Mike Lynch

Twice I met the tech tycoon Mike Lynch, once a decade or so ago and again this year, shortly after he returned from his fraud trial acquittal in California. On the first occasion, I followed him as a speaker at a corporate conference in, of all places, the National Football Centre in Burton-on-Trent. He was the star of the show and we exchanged barely a nod. In those days – after he sold his software company Autonomy to Hewlett Packard of the US for $11 billion, but before his career was overtaken by HP’s allegations that Autonomy’s accounts were fraudulent – he had a reputation for arrogance in business which

Stephen Daisley

The SNP is learning there’s no such thing as a free lunch

During his time as Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond was accused by the Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont of fostering a ‘something for nothing’ culture with vote-grabbing policies like free university tuition, free prescriptions and a council tax freeze – expensive gimmicks that took cash away from where it was needed most. Lamont’s analysis was sound and reflected the consensus among Scottish economists but she was pilloried for her speech and her leadership never really recovered. Vindication twelve years after the fact might be cold comfort for Lamont but the SNP government has seemingly come around to her way of thinking. A week ago, it scrapped the devolved version of

Ross Clark

Labour is losing fiscal credibility 

Just how much longer will the government be able to sustain its assertion that the Conservatives left behind a £22 billion hole in the public finances? Confirmation that ministers are continuing to blame their predecessors for out-of-control public finances – and for expected tax rises in October’s budget – was provided this morning by Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones, who reacted to July’s grim borrowing figures by stating:  ‘Today’s figures are yet more proof of the dire inheritance left to us by the previous government. A £22 billion black hole in the public finances this year, a decade of economic stagnation, and public debt at its highest level

Rachel Reeves has already run out of cash

It was easy to mock it as a piece of political grandstanding. On taking office, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves almost immediately discovered a ‘black hole’ in the public finances, and started warning of tax rises in the autumn. To many of her opponents, it looked like pure opportunism. And yet, now it turns out that she was right. The latest data on public finances show that the British government really is running out of cash. There is just one snag. Everything Reeves’s colleagues are doing will make that even worse, and her threatened tax rises won’t raise anything close to enough money to make the numbers add up.  The public

Ross Clark

Labour are about to ‘switch off’ growth

What a joke the government’s promise to concentrate on ‘growth, growth, growth’ is becoming. Since the Prime Minister uttered those words on entering Downing Street, we have had road schemes cancelled and money withdrawn from a supercomputer project at Edinburgh university, that could have given Britain’s AI industry a leg-up. We have had fat pay rises for public sector workers without any requirement for them to adopt more efficient working practices. And we have businesses about to be lumbered with the requirement to offer employees flexible working hours from day one of their employment. Now there is another productivity-destroying proposal on the table. Angela Rayner has drawn up plans for

Ross Clark

Why is the housing market so sluggish?

Is this the first sign of a bounce in the housing market? Property website Rightmove is reporting this morning that enquiries to estate agents so far this month are 19 per cent on August last year. This follows a quarter-point cut in interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE).  Rightmove’s data is forward-looking, in that it represents the first step in the house-buying process: contacting an estate agent for information, or for a viewing. Then again, enquiries are only enquiries – it is a big step from there to securing a mortgage and making an offer, and an even bigger step actually to completing a purchase. The government’s data for completed

Why don’t more millionaires make ‘patriotic gifts’?

The rich are happy to pay more, the broadest shoulders should bear the heaviest burden, and the climate emergency means more money is urgently needed to save the planet. We keep being told that the better off are more than willing to contribute plenty to the government if only they were asked. Groups such as Patriotic Millionaires UK have campaigned for wealth levies, even projecting light shows reading ‘Tax our wealth’ onto the Bank of England to make their point. Meanwhile billionaires such as Sir Jim Ratcliffe and John Caudwell backed Labour at the last election, presumably comfortable with their plans to put up taxes for the better off. In

Ross Clark

Are monthly retail stats that useful?

So, we were all so impressed with the swashbuckling performance of Gareth Southgate’s team that we all rushed out and bought replica England shirts and packs of lager – to the point that retail sales in July were 0.5 per cent higher than in June. No, I don’t buy that either – even though it has been widely reported today in reaction to the latest statistical release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). As I have written here before, I don’t really trust the month-on-month figures for retail sales. They are too volatile to be meaningful. Moreover, they depend somewhat on how many weekends fell in the month: some

Kamala’s economic plans are bonkers

She didn’t have to slog around New Hampshire, there were no debates, and there were few opportunities for voters or journalists to ask Kamala Harris any questions. The Democratic nomination for President fell into her lap when it became painfully clear that Joe Biden was far too old and too unwell to run for a second term. That may turn out to be very lucky, at least for her. Later today (Friday), Harris will unveil her first new policy of the campaign. The trouble is this: it is completely idiotic. After a campaign that has so far been strong on vibes, and weak on anything that vaguely resembles a detailed

Kate Andrews

Britain’s growing GDP is good and bad news for Labour

The UK economy flatlined in June, as uncertainty over the general election and industrial action took their toll on economic growth. It wasn’t expected to be a strong month for the economy, with markets forecasting very little GDP growth, if any. But the small dip in services output – a fall of 0.1 per cent, driven primarily by a fall in retail trade – was disappointing after five months of consecutive growth. Still, June’s figures are the perfect example of why one month of data rarely tells the full story. Businesses reported to the ONS that ‘customers were delaying placing orders until the outcome of the election was known’ which

Why is Germany still cosying up to China?

Growth is slowing down. The property market is wobbling. And the government is tightening its grip on every form of economic activity. Global investors have made a decision about China over the last few months. It may have one of the biggest markets in the world, but the risks are simply too high. Over the second quarter of this year, foreign investors pulled a record amount of money out of China. A total of $15 billion was taken out of the country, and if that continues for the rest of the year it will be the first time the total has turned negative since 1999. There is, however, one exception:

Kate Andrews

Why has the inflation rate gone up again?

The inflation rate rose to 2.2 per cent in July, slightly up from the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, where the rate sat in May and June. It’s the first rate uptick this year – and though widely expected, it will be used to explain why the Bank’s continued hawkish stance, despite starting its rate-cutting process earlier this month. The slight speed up in the inflation rate is largely attributed to the overall cost of household services, where the ‘prices of gas and electricity fell by less than they did last year’. This was somewhat offset by the ‘largest downward contribution’ which was attributed to falling costs for

Ross Clark

Public sector pay rises are hurting the economy

Today’s labour market figures ought to bring good news: they show that growth on earnings has moderated to 5.4 per cent, the lowest level in two years. That should ease fears of inflation – it is growth in pay which has most concerned the Bank of England in recent months – and pave the way for further cuts in interest rates. The trouble is, though, that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has undermined this by granting pay rises of 5.5 per cent to several million public sector workers – threatening to reignite wage growth again. The public sector has become an inflationary engine chugging away in one corner of the economy

Michael Simmons

Why is the pound falling?

Is America about to enter a recession and take the world with it? Yesterday the pound was on track for its longest losing streak in a year as markets once again began to fear a US recession. The week started with what looked like the bursting of a tech bubble. Japan’s Nikkei dropped by 12 per cent in a day – its largest fall since Black Monday nearly four decades ago. But by Tuesday morning, stocks had recovered 10 per cent and markets looked to be steadying while the jittery hands of investors began to hold firm. Are we out of the woods? Not quite. A leading Wall Street Bank