Economy

Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the UK unemployment rate has risen to 4.5 per cent, the number of people on company payrolls has dropped by 63,000 over the past year, and there are 131,000 fewer job vacancies than at this time last year. Today’s employment data covers the period up to March – before the rise in the minimum wage and the Chancellor’s £25 billion national insurance hike took effect. The fact that the labour market was already faltering beforehand shows how deeply businesses were bracing for impact. It’s now the third consecutive month in which firms have shed jobs, and April’s data could

We’ve learnt three things about the future of world trade from the temporary reprieve over tariffs that the US has given China – and China’s response to it.  One is the markets are now confident that both countries will be sensible. The massively negative reaction they gave to ‘liberation day’ on 2 April signalled their hatred of uncertainty but also of stupidity. Before Donald Trump’s arbitrary jacking up of tariffs to what were really absurd levels, they had assumed that he would ensure that there would be reasonable continuity of world trade. His plans, and China’s robust reaction, led to nagging doubts that their assumption might be wrong, there really

The White House has announced a breakthrough in trade negotiations with China following two days of talks in Switzerland. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had made ‘substantial progress’. This morning, he said that the US would lower tariffs on China to 25 per cent from 145 per cent for 90 days, and that China would lower tariffs on the US to 10 per cent from 125 per cent for 90 days. Trump’s trade chief Jamieson Greer (who gave his first European interview to Unherd last week) said yesterday it had been a ‘very constructive two days’. He added: ‘It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to

Keir Starmer says it is a ‘fantastic, historic’ day after signing a trade deal with the United States, but is the agreement really something to celebrate? Ten per cent tariffs, announced last month, still apply to most UK goods entering the US The government is no doubt cock-a-hoop to be the first country to get a trade deal with President Donald Trump over the line, and there are a few wins: tariffs will come down for cars, steel, and potentially for pharmaceuticals, exempting UK exporters from the worst of the tariffs imposed on the oddly-named ‘Liberation Day’. But while, despite the dire warnings of some, we won’t be seeing chlorinated

It was a mark of respect. After Warren Buffett, who can lay claim to the title of the greatest investor of all time, told his army of loyal shareholders over the weekend that he was finally stepping down from the Berkshire Hathaway empire he has built over the last six decades, the firm’s shares fell 5 per cent when trading opened on Wall Street. Buffett, however, is 94. It should not have come as a surprise to anyone that he was retiring. In fact, the fall proves once again the central insight on which Buffett has built his remarkable career – the markets are not as efficient as they think

Keir Starmer has ruled out a U-turn on the government’s decision to cut the winter fuel payment, with the Prime Minister’s spokesman insisting there ‘will not be a change to the government’s policy’. This came after a report in the Guardian suggesting No.10 was considering softening the £1.4 billion cut, possibly by raising the threshold that defines who qualifies as poor enough to receive it. We can’t keep living in a state totally consumed by propping up its welfare system That a U-turn was even floated reflects two pressures: disquiet among Labour’s backbenchers, and the electoral warning shot fired by Reform UK in last Thursday’s local elections and by-election. In Runcorn, where

Keir Starmer’s government has taken some important first steps to bring the welfare budget under control. But expenditure on disability and incapacity benefits is still set to increase to almost £100 billion by the end of the decade, so more changes are needed. Every aspect of the welfare system must be examined to see if it is actually helping those it was designed to assist. The Motability scheme should be Starmer’s next target. Britain cannot afford a gold-plated scheme providing a subsidised car to many who simply do not need one Introduced in 1977, Motability was set up with admirable intentions: to provide vehicles, scooters and powered wheelchairs to disabled

There is not much that Chancellor Rachel Reeves can look forward to right now. The Labour party has just been hammered in the local elections. The economy has stagnated, and government borrowing has started to spiral out of control. There is, however, this: the City now expects interest rates to start falling at the fastest pace since the financial crisis a decade and a half ago. There is just one catch: it probably won’t be enough to save Reeves’s failing chancellorship. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates from 4.5 per cent to 4.25 per cent next week. Even better, the consensus among City forecasters is

Here’s a pub quiz question: which European country has no net zero target? I don’t mean which country is not bothering too much about conforming with its net zero target, because that is most of them, but which one doesn’t even have such a target in the first place? The surprising answer is Norway, which has a target of reducing its carbon emissions by 90 to 95 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050 but has made no commitment so far to go all the way. We are importing ever-increasing amounts of electricity via subsea cables, from Norway included It is surprising because, in many respects, the Scandinavian country is

German beer has been an important part of the country’s culture and history for centuries. When tourists think about travelling to Germany, many consider visiting one of the beer gardens in Bavaria or elsewhere. The Oktoberfest is not just the world’s largest Volksfest, but also represents Germany’s fun side. But how much appetite is there for German beer still? Beer exports were down six per cent in 2024 compared to ten years ago, according to figures released by the country’s Federal Statistical Office. Meanwhile, beer consumption in Germany has dropped by 15.1 per cent in the same period. Beer consumption per capita in Germany reached its peak in 1980 That