Economy

  • AAPL

    213.43 (+0.29%)

  • BARC-LN

    1205.7 (-1.46%)

  • NKE

    94.05 (+0.39%)

  • CVX

    152.67 (-1.00%)

  • CRM

    230.27 (-2.34%)

  • INTC

    30.5 (-0.87%)

  • DIS

    100.16 (-0.67%)

  • DOW

    55.79 (-0.82%)

From Thatcher to Truss, who’s haunting Mel Stride?

Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride delivered a speech today where he attempted to banish the ghost of Liz Truss and improve the Conservatives’ reputation over fiscal credibility. And he compared leader Kemi Badenoch to Thatcher, saying she too struggled at first and will ‘get better’ at the dispatch box. LBC broadcaster Iain Dale and the Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons join deputy political editor James Heale to unpack Stride’s speech, talk about Labour’s latest policy announcement over free school meals and discuss why both the main parties are struggling with fiscal credibility. Plus, Iain talks about his new book Margaret Thatcher and the myths he seeks to dispel. Why does he

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Is this really the best Labour can offer teachers?

Bridget Phillipson was appointed Labour’s shadow education secretary in November 2021. After 18 months in the role, she has now finally unveiled Labour’s ambitious new idea to help tackle the teacher retention and recruitment crisis: use the tax raid on private school fees to fund a £2,400 welcome bonus to every teacher who has completed their two years of training. This is a classic case of copying someone’s homework, except – no surprises – it wasn’t very good the first time round. The Conservatives have already increased the starting salaries of newly-qualified teachers to £30,000. Teaching unions have already overwhelmingly voted to reject a one-off payment. The government has already tried giving bonuses to maths teachers,

Has the Bank of England’s net zero obsession fuelled inflation?

The Bank of England was made independent to take monetary policy away from flighty politicians who are slaves to expediency and fashionable sound bites. Instead, central bankers imbued with objectivity, prudence and, most of all, economic expertise would be in charge. But when it comes to climate change and net zero, the Bank has shown that poor judgment is certainly not exclusive to elected officials. Only a month ago, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England was touting net zero as a growth elixir. ‘The transition to net zero is a major structural change that needs substantial investment and can over quite a prolonged transition period help to raise

Kate Andrews

Is Thames Water about to sink?

Thames Water appears to be in trouble. The company, which has billions in debt, is in talks with the Treasury about a possible bailout. We may soon be adding the firm, which serves one in four Brits, to the list of victims of rising interest rates. ‘Victim,’ in this case, is perhaps the wrong word. It’s hard to feel sorry for a company that has been relying on ultra-low rates to keep itself afloat, racking up £14 billion worth of debt and now severely struggling to service it. Financial mismanagement is just one of a series of accusations levelled against the company. Its problems have been in the spotlight for years, especially

Martin Vander Weyer

Markets will celebrate Putin’s fall – but not yet

As the Wagner convoy rumbled northwards towards Moscow on Saturday, markets braced for turmoil. What would armed uprising in Russia do to the supply and price of oil, gas, wheat or fertiliser? Would it provoke investor flights to gold or bitcoin? But when the episode fizzled out, Monday’s prices saw little more than upticks, with natural gas traders more preoccupied by outages in Norway and FTSE action refocused on dim domestic economic prospects. Sighs of relief all round, then, and a simple conclusion: world markets will hail the demise of Vladimir Putin – so long as he goes slowly, of natural causes, and not before the end of the great

How do we fix Britain’s stagnant economy?

With every passing week it becomes clearer that the British economy is in crisis. Not the ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ sort of crisis that bedevils the financial markets, but rather the deep-seated, slow-burning crisis of a progressive, life-threatening disease. ‘I am totally 100 per cent on it, and it is going to be okay and we are going to get through this,’ the Prime Minister promised last week. If so, he’s got his work cut out. The economic performance of the UK economy has deteriorated sharply over the last decade-and-a-half compared to its performance beforehand. On key measures, such as output per hour worked, the UK was a poor performer even before the

The Bank can’t blame wages for out of control inflation

After a bruising week, perhaps Andrew Bailey could take some solace in Rishi Sunak’s interview with Laura Kuenssberg this weekend. For a start, the Prime Minister threw his support behind the Bank of England governor, after senior figures within the Conservative party accused Bailey of being ‘asleep at the wheel’. But it was also a reminder that, no matter how bad things may seem at Threadneedle Street, they’re probably worse in No. 10. When Bailey hits out at wages, it looks like another desperate attempt to deflect blame away from his own institution Sunak is facing demands for proof that his plan for our economic recovery will work at a

John Keiger

Will Macron be forced to break his pledge and raise taxes?

The inevitable is at last beginning to dawn on Emmanuel Macron. The extravagant spending spree initiated after the violent and year-long 2018 ‘gilets jaunes’ protests will have to be reversed. With the coffers empty, France is not only at the mercy of international finance, she is now highly vulnerable to the next social or political crisis Overgenerous Covid and energy subsidies are expected to push the budget deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP with the French debt to GDP ratio at 114 per cent, the largest absolute debt pile in the EU and one of the largest in the world. Unlike Italy’s debt, most of France’s is foreign-owned, so

Kate Andrews

Shock as interest rates hiked to 5 per cent

The Monetary Policy Committee has voted seven to two to take interest rates to 5 per cent, a 0.5 point increase. Its thirteenth rise in a row takes rates to their highest level in 15 years, and is being described as a ‘shock’ increase, brought in as a response to the rise in core inflation on the year in May, which has hit 7.1 per cent. The horror of inflation is that it gobbles up your income and your savings After this week’s dire inflation update, the question wasn’t whether the Monetary Policy Committee would raise interest rates, but by how much. After last week’s labour market update, which saw nominal wages

Labour must resist jumping on the mortgage bail-out bandwagon

Millions of potential voters in marginal constituencies face punishing rises in their mortgage repayments over the coming months and years. The government is in disarray on the issue and is largely to blame for the mess. Labour has spied an opportunity to hammer the Conservatives: it is talking about a ‘Tory mortgage penalty’ and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves is jumping on the bandwagon clamouring for mortgage payers to get help. But, if Labour goes too far in its demands, it could pay a heavy price. With inflation stubbornly high, and the Bank of England rapidly losing credibility, mortgage rates are soaring. A two-year fixed rate that cost less than 2

The UK still needs fossil fuels, whether activists like it or not

The Supreme Court is hearing a case today that, if successful, could mean the end of new fossil fuel projects in the UK on climate grounds.  The justices will decide whether to reverse approval for oil extraction at Horse Hill based on downstream emissions from the use of the oil. Whatever the outcome, this case is a damning indictment of the UK’s absurd climate laws.  This is a long-running affair. Horse Hill was first test drilled in 2012 and permitted by Surrey County Council to expand to a commercial scale in 2019. This is the teeth of opposition from local campaigners, including the Weald Action Group, Friends of the Earth, and

Martin Vander Weyer

How to avert a mortgage car-crash

How real is the ‘mortgage crisis’ and what, if anything, can be done to relieve it? BBC vox pops of borrowers whose monthly costs have already rocketed or who face imminent rate resets at 6 per cent or worse certainly give a dramatic impression. But in reality this is a slow-motion car-crash – for Rishi Sunak as well as the afflicted – in which some 1.4 million mortgages (out of a UK total of 13.2 million) will move to higher rates sometime this year and another million next year. Forgive my arithmetic, by the way, but that looks like 18 per cent of the mortgage-holding population who constitute 28 per

Michael Simmons

Sunak’s debt target is slipping out of reach

Threadneedle Street will have all the economic limelight this week as the Bank of England sets interest rates tomorrow. With this morning’s grim inflation update, a rate rise looks all but certain. But this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released an update on Rishi Sunak’s third pledge: to get debt falling. The figures show another target quickly escaping Sunak.  Public sector borrowing in the month to May rose to some £20 billion, almost £11 billion more than the same month last year. That makes it the second most expensive May on record. Meanwhile, in the first couple of months of this financial year, the government borrowed just under

Kate Andrews

Britain risks turning into a stagflation nation

Inflation figures out this morning make for grim reading: the headline rate didn’t budge, sticking at 8.7 per cent on the year in May. Far worse, core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose once again, to 7.1 per cent on the year in May, up from 6.8 per cent in April. This latest update from the Office for National Statistics carries far more weight than your usual monthly report. With mortgage costs spiralling into a crisis, the Bank of England will have been looking for any excuse to stick to a dovish interest rate hike or to even hold rates, as the Federal Reserve did last week for the first time

Tom Slater

Mark Zuckerberg won’t kill Twitter

Is Mark Zuckerberg losing his touch? Having just thrown tens of billions at his weird virtual-reality ‘metaverse’, only to see it flop with users, the Meta CEO and co-founder of Facebook appears to be spying another questionable new venture. It’s reportedly called Threads, a cloying techspeak name for what is essentially a rip-off of Twitter. You might think that the last thing the world needs is another Twitter, den of sanctimony and cancellation that it is. But not our Zuck. Threads appears to be an attempt to capitalise on the unease over at Twitter Towers, as advertisers and high-profile users alike have been rattled by Elon Musk’s unpredictable new leadership

Isabel Hardman

Neither party is fully trusted on the economy

Jeremy Hunt was bombarded by MPs worried about the ‘mortgage timebomb’ when he took Treasury questions in the Commons today. Everyone on all sides was concerned, and offering their own ideas of what to do and who to blame. One problem for the Chancellor is that ‘everyone’ includes members of his own party, many of whom are pushing him to do something ‘more Conservative’. The main ‘more Conservative’ policy that Tory backbenchers were promoting was mortgage interest relief. Jake Berry suggested it, arguing that without this kind of support, all the other money spent by the government would be wasted if people lost their homes. Other Conservative backbenchers including Jonathan

Ministers are addicted to intervention

This week Rishi Sunak ruled out direct government intervention to protect homeowners from impending catastrophe. It’s a welcome development – bailing out mortgage debtors would be financially ruinous and grossly unfair on renters. But just a few days ago the Prime Minister was ordering banks to shield borrowers from surging rates, and the Treasury still insists that the chancellor wants banks to ‘live up to their responsibilities’ – the vagueness of which leaves a lot to be desired. There are reports of ministers working with banks to offer more indirect help, like payment holidays. The government has led people to believe that politicians will shield them from any hardship It’s unclear whether the Tories will

Kate Andrews

Are mortgage rates the next crisis?

The average two-year fixed mortgage now sits at 6 per cent, according to financial data group Moneyfacts – just below the 6.65 per cent reached in December last year, after the fallout from Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. Five-year fixed rates aren’t too far behind, at 5.7 per cent. For many of the 2.4 million homeowners whose mortgages are up for renewal between now and the end of next year, this is, at best, cause for alarm. At worst, it’s an alert to a crisis. Later this week, we’ll get last month’s inflation data – and the next rate update from the Bank of England. Threadneedle Street’s dilemma is only getting worse. Between

Is France finally changing its tune on Brexit?

The waiters can sometimes be a little surly. That holiday villa you booked in the Loire may not always be as desirable as it looked in the pictures. And you can never be entirely sure which side they will be on in a major war. Still, despite occasional inconsistencies, there is one thing you could always rely on the French for. They will insist forever that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe for the British economy, and by far the stupidest decision any major country has ever made. But hold on. What’s this? In a note this morning BNP Paribas, a bank right at the heart of the French

The Vodafone-Three merger could be a Brexit win

There are plenty of reasons for viewing today’s huge merger deal between the UK mobile networks of Vodafone and Three with suspicion. It could reduce choice for consumers. It may lead to job losses. And it is possible that they will downgrade their service even more than they already have, cut back on investment, and squeeze more money out of a captive market. Yet that is not quite the whole story. In fact, done right, the merger could even turn out to be a rare Brexit win.  Today’s tie-up between Vodafone and Three was widely expected. The two companies will combine their British networks, and will have 27 million users