Economy

It’s that time of year again: GERS day – when Scotland’s annual fiscal health is laid bare – has come back around and the figures paint a pretty bleak picture for the Scottish government. There is a £26.5 billion black hole in public finances (don’t fall off your chair, Rachel Reeves) while the country’s deficit has grown by more than £5 billion. With a Scottish parliament election just around the corner – and the party of government on track to lose seats – it’s more bad news for First Minister John Swinney’s SNP. Today’s GERS stats raise questions about the SNP’s full fiscal autonomy idea Swinney’s administration appears to have

There really is no hiding place for Rachel Reeves in this morning’s employment figures. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) release shows that 164,000 payrolled positions have been lost in the 12 months to July, Labour’s first year in office. Those figures are still provisional, but the figures for the 12 months to June show pretty much the same picture, with the number of payrolled positions falling by 149,000. In May alone, 26,000 jobs were lost. The unemployment rate rose to 4.7 per cent. For those who are in work, the figures show a healthy rise in real earnings of 0.9 per cent. The Bank of England said last week

From Lord Kinnock’s demand for a wealth tax and VAT on private health fees to Gordon Brown pressing for gambling taxes, it is plain that Labour has run out of ideas other than dreaming up new ways to part us from our money. Even so, Kemi Badenoch is ill-advised to go on an all-out attack on council tax reform, as she did in a Mail on Sunday column yesterday. You don’t have to be a socialist or even a Labour supporter to see that council tax is horribly regressive According to the Conservative leader, Rachel Reeves is plotting to do as Labour have done in Wales: to set up an

Will yesterday’s cut in interest rates bring relief to the government in its economic problems, offering a breather to people who feel that their living standards are declining? That is unlikely for two reasons. Firstly, people buying homes with mortgages – the most obvious beneficiaries of a cut in interest rates – are more likely nowadays to be on fixed rates. Few will benefit from an immediate cut to the Bank of England base rate; in fact, there are still many homebuyers who are coming off five-year fixed rates they took out at the height of Covid, when interest rates were still at near-zero. They will experience a shock, regardless of

The Chancellor’s black hole is getting bigger and tax rises are coming. That’s the judgement of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) whose model of the UK economy has forecast she must find £50 billion of revenue or cuts if she’s to return to the £9.9 billion of fiscal headroom she left herself in the spring.   Some now believe the gap is so large Reeves may have to break Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase income tax, VAT or employee national insurance Reeves’s self-imposed and ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules require her to abolish the deficit by the end of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) five-year forecast. NIESER’s

High levels of migration might not always be good for community relations if large numbers of new arrivals descend on one neighbourhood, but at least it helps boost GDP by providing Britain with a source of eager workers whom employers struggle to find in Britain. That sums up the view of some economists, but it has just been thoroughly rejected by one important voice. David Miles, who sits on the committee of the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), has written today that it is wrongheaded to think that Britain can solve its economic problems by opening its doors to overseas workers. Even a migrant on the average UK wage will

It was, at least, far better than the City feared. Shares in banks and finance houses such as Lloyds and Close Brothers were soaring on the London market this morning after the Supreme Court rejected claims that they potentially owed tens of billions in mis-sold car finance. Instead, they are likely to get away with a mere £9 billion to £18 billion instead. But this still doesn’t address a pretty important question: it is not really clear why Britain’s motorists deserve a few billion from the banks. All it is doing is putting us on a slippery slope to an out-of-control compensation culture.  A lot of holidays will be paid

Spectator readers will not need me to tell them the meaning of the Latin ‘cura terrae’. Taking care of the Earth was one of central arguments of last week’s front-page feature against private equity. But Cura Terrae also happens to be the name of a business based in Sheffield. This business is an environmental services provider dedicated to helping preserve the world and the natural resources that we all love and cherish. One of its particular strengths is its water services division, where its team of specialists monitor water flow and quality across the UK. By doing so, they help to protect our rivers from the kind of water pollution