Economy

Will the Bank of England raise interest rates again? We’ll know for sure next Thursday, when we get the Monetary Policy Committee’s next announcement on the base rate, but today’s decision from the Federal Reserve to hike rates again makes it more likely that the Bank will follow suit. The Fed has announced another interest rate hike: a quarter of a percentage point, taking the rate to 5 – 5.25 per cent. This tenth consecutive hike in the United States has taken its key interest rate to the highest level since 2007 – approximately where rates sat before the financial crisis hit.  This has caused plenty of controversy across the pond, as fears

We might have thought Trussonomics was dead and buried for a generation after its author’s short-lived premiership last autumn. But all of a sudden it has a high-profile, if slightly unexpected, convert: Sir Keir Starmer. In an interview with BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, Starmer was sounding a lot like Kwasi Kwarteng last September: We’ve got the highest tax burden since the second world war. What we’ve had from the government is tax rise upon tax rise on tax rise. If they’ve proved one thing, it’s that their high-tax, low-growth economy doesn’t work. The Labour leader is absolutely correct, even if he is a little late to the

Can a banking crisis really be going this well? After a week of panic withdrawals and a crashing share price, the First Republic Bank in the US will be taken over nearly in its entirety by J P Morgan Chase, in a shotgun marriage facilitated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). No depositors will lose money, and most of the bank’s functions will continue uninterrupted – just as they did in the case of HSBC’s takeover of the UK arm of Silicon Valley Bank last month.     We have now had four major banking collapses in the space of six weeks, with remarkably little spillover into the economy at large

Clever people often believe that their cleverness gives them the right to control other people. Nowhere is this more manifest than in nanny state Britain.  So fixated was Public Health England on shielding us from our own bad decisions that when an infectious disease arrived on our shores the quango was woefully unprepared. Junk food advertising bans were prioritised over protecting us against an epidemic.  And so determined are politicians to insulate us from hardship that they attempt to regulate anything that moves. Arguably the most troubling recent development concerns the tacit raising of the age of majority. Since 1969 it has been accepted that we are treated as adults by law

Hollywood will be backing him en masse. The major newspapers will be rooting to put him back in the White House. And most of corporate America, in between filling in the forms for the next round of ‘green subsidies’, will be quietly hoping for another four years of lavish spending and protectionism to keep out all those irritating foreign competitors. As he launched his re-election campaign this week, President Joe Biden could count on plenty of mainstream support. There is just one problem: the Federal Reserve is about to torpedo his campaign – by tipping the American economy into recession.  GDP figures for the US released today showed an economy

It was, admittedly, not quite as thrilling as an action sequence from Call of Duty. Even so, the statement put out by Bobby Kotick, chief executive of US video game publisher Activision, following the UK’s bizarre decision to block the company’s acquisition by Microsoft was about as bloodthirsty as any ever put out by a major corporation. The ruling ‘contradicts the ambitions of the UK to become an attractive country to build a technology business,’ he argued. Even worse, ‘it does a disservice to UK citizens, who face increasingly dire economic prospects’, and, to cap it all off, it shows that Britain is ‘closed for business’. Of course, it would

Lockdown ended, the economy reopened – and public sector borrowing went up. Provisional figures for 2022/23 released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning show that the government borrowed £139.2 billion. This is an increase of £18.1 billion on the previous year, when the economy was still being disrupted by Covid. The figure was made much worse by figures for March this year, when the government borrowed £21.5 billion – £16.3 billion more than in March 2022.  A huge surge in borrowing during the pandemic was to be expected. The government was, after all, paying the wages of 9 million people at one stage through the furlough scheme.

‘March madness’ was a tag applied with hindsight to last month’s scare provoked by the unconnected collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. Nothing systemic there, said the wise men. But this week began with another rumble, as reputable US institutions, including State Street of Boston and the stockbroker Charles Schwab, reported large deposit outflows, while shares in others dived. Meanwhile, the Bank of England was assessing whether to raise the state guarantee of bank deposits from its current £85,000 to avert social-media panics. But the problem is becoming circular: as interest rates rise, depositors are keener to move money around in search of higher yield. The bigger the

The UK’s labour market is cooling down, slowly. Although unemployment rose from 3.7 per cent to 3.8 per cent, figures published by the Office for National Statistics this morning show that job vacancies have fallen for the ninth consecutive period. They’re now down 47,000 but still stand at over a million. The number of people out of work and not seeking it (economically inactive) fell too, as students started hunting for work. The most startling figures, however, were those for wage growth. They showed that average pay rose 6.6 per cent in the three months to February. Hefty pay raises in normal times – but adjusted for inflation, that’s a

As the battle of the economic forecasts rages on, it’s useful to note that (right now, anyway), the predictions aren’t all that different. The more optimistic scenarios, like the one published by EY ITEM Club today, suggest the UK will see minuscule growth this year but avoid technical recession. The pessimistic scenarios, like the IMF’s latest forecast, are being revised upwards but still show the UK economy experiencing a short and shallow contraction.  The good and bad scenarios are, therefore, both largely within the margin of error –  and all are pretty lousy at that (albeit better than previously expected). Regardless of which proves right, this is shaping up to

How big a deal is long Covid and can it be treated? Opinions range from it being a serious impediment to the health of millions of those who suffered from Covid-19 to a figment in the imagination of the workshy. A study by the University of Oxford of a drug developed by US Pharmaceutical company Axcella Therapeutics may just help to shed some light. The drug, AXA1125, is designed to boost the performance of mitochondria, which generate energy for our cells and control the amount of inflammation in the body. It is believed that long Covid causes fatigue – among other symptoms – by inhibiting the mitochondria.    While a drug to treat

February was a no-growth month, according to the latest update from the Office for National Statistics, published this morning. A rise in construction was offset by a fall in services, resulting in zero headline growth. The strikes are taking their toll. The biggest contribution to the fall in services came from education and public administration, as striking teachers downed tools. Education fell by 1.7 per cent. Meanwhile public administration fell by 1.1 per cent, as ‘this industry also saw industrial action take place within the civil service during February 2023.’ An optimist might note that while the strikes offset economic activity in other sectors, at least there was some growth to point

Three months ago I praised Tony Danker, director general of the Confederation of British Industry, for berating the government over corporate tax rises and skill shortages: at last, I said, a CBI chief con brio. But now he’s been fired following an investigation into his ‘workplace conduct’ and three other CBI staffers have been suspended over other claims, including a rape allegation. The taint is life-threatening: if members flee, the CBI won’t survive. And if it doesn’t, say critics, not much is lost – because as a lobby group for the interests of its dominant large corporate subscribers, the UK’s leading employers’ organisation was already past its sell-by date. Fair