Economy

Rishi Sunak has a reputation for sleek and snazzy presentation, and his leadership launch this morning was no exception – by Westminster standards, anyway. The air-conditioning was on full blast as young activists lined up with their ‘Ready For Rishi!’ signs, next to heavily branded backdrops. And the guest list was long. MPs in attendance included many who had already declared for Sunak: Bim Afolami, Claire Coutinho, Helen Whately, and Liam Fox. There were also surprise guests, including the Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, who introduced Sunak and credited him for delivering ‘the biggest tax cut for working people in a decade’ by lifting the National Insurance threshold for millions.

Childcare in the UK is among the most expensive in Europe. A full-time nursery place for a child under five costs in the region of £14,000 per year; if there are multiple children, this easily rises to an amount that means women would be paying to go back to work after maternity leave. The result: if a couple can’t afford to support a family on a single income until children are school age, then quite likely they can’t afford to have a family at all. One typical reason given for these high costs is that regulations for the number of adults per child are more stringent than in many other

Rather unsurprisingly, the bulk of MPs who have declared their leadership bids so far are promising lower taxes. Also unsurprisingly, very few details are on offer explaining how they’d do it. In Nadhim Zahawi’s early pitch to the public — he is expected to share more tomorrow — he’s asserted that ‘taxes for individuals, families and business need to be lower – and will be on my watch.’ Tom Tugendhat’s ‘clean start’ manifesto made a similar point: ‘Taxes, bluntly, are too high,’ he asserted, ‘and there is an emerging consensus across the party that they must come down.’ Penny Mordant’s leadership pitch today promises ‘new economic vision’ — something we

Will this leadership contest provide a debate? The Tories got into this mess because have spent years asking who can bring them power, rather than what they stand for or who has the best ideas for the country. The leadership contest should come in two stages: first discussing what has gone wrong and then next who best to remedy. So far, this is my test for the candidates. Have they said anything that moves beyond platitude and cliche? Do they show any signs of being thoughtful? Do they recognise that there is a fight ahead, and that they are prepared for that fight? I fervently hope the Tory party abstain

What does Boris Johnson’s resignation mean for the economy? The pound started its rebound yesterday from a two-year low against the US dollar after Johnson resigned. A few economists were quick to point out though that it had dropped so much, there was only one place it could really go: up.  It’s very likely this leadership race turns into a competition over who would cut taxes hardest and fastest, which is no bad thing Had Johnson managed a few more months in the role, we would have almost certainly seen some deficit-financed tax cuts, led by the new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi. ‘We were 24 hours away from reversing the corporation tax

On Tuesday, the last cabinet meeting with Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor passed without any hint that either was about to resign. The ministers did not co-ordinate their resignations, but they had both been tipped over the edge by growing evidence that No. 10 had misled MPs by declaring Boris Johnson had no prior knowledge of Chris Pincher’s behaviour. Sunak had also grown tired of the Prime Minister’s economic ‘cake-ism’ – the fantasy of wanting both high spending and low taxes. The contradictions had become untenable. In that cabinet meeting, Johnson offered more cake. He was his usual ebullient self, promising a morale-raising speech to

We will never know the counterfactuals of the past few years. What if another MP had been made Chancellor when Sajid Javid resigned (the first time)? What if a green chancellor Rishi Sunak hadn’t had a pandemic to manage? While we can’t answer these questions, it’s hard to imagine any MP – certainly on the left, even on the right – taking fiscal responsibility as seriously as Sunak did when he had the permission of his party – and politicians the world over – to throw it out the window. I suspect it won’t take long for us to start missing the former Chancellor and the critical role he played

Rishi Sunak’s resignation was, without question, a brave, honourable and dignified decision. By stepping away from the cabinet, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak may well have done enough to salvage his reputation among Conservative MPs and party members. Perhaps he might even have rescued what was once seen as a potentially meteoric career. But although he may be missed as a politician, one thing is clear: Sunak won’t be missed as Chancellor. In reality, he was a catastrophe in the role – and now that he has gone, his successor will have a chance to reverse his policies. The Chancellor leaves a worse legacy than perhaps any predecessor of modern times Whether Sunak

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is once again using Turkey’s geopolitical position for his own ends, this time dictating grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea. Turkish customs authorities detained a Russian cargo ship carrying Ukrainian wheat on Sunday, following a request of Kyiv. The Russian cargo ship Zhibek Zholy left the south-eastern port of Berdyansk over the weekend carrying 7,000 tons of grain, worth about £1.75 million. The Russian-appointed head of the occupied region had hailed it as the first commercial ship to leave a Ukrainian port after months of war. He said this would take desperately-needed supplies to friendly countries, according to Politico. The reality is, of course, that

The UK’s economy grew by 0.8 per cent between January and March this year, according to this morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics. This means real GDP is now just 0.7 per cent above its pre-pandemic levels. On the face of it, it’s fairly grim news. The spectacular growth originally forecast for this year, making up for lost time in lockdown, did not transpire in the first three months of the year. Signs of a weak economy are starting to show. While consumer spending was up by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter, business investment fell by the same amount, down 9.2 per cent overall from its pre-pandemic levels. Signs