World

Freddy Gray

Is the Trump tape really that shocking?

The funniest thing about the lewd Donald Trump tape is how unshocking it is. It’s less of an ‘October surprise’ more of an ‘October of course’. Everybody who knows anything about Trump knows that he is, to use a Donald favoured word, braggadocious about his sexual exploits. The newly unearthed video of him boasting of his sexual misadventures is embarrassing for him, of course, but it’s not much worse than what he said in his interviews with Howard Stern, which has been extensively reported. It will hurt his chances with women voters, and of course grumpy Republicans are using the story as an excuse to try another coup against him,

Hillary will beat Trump. But her presidency will be hamstrung just like Obama’s

The more you study history, the more you realise how hopeless it is to try predicting the future. Even sophisticated polling can’t prevent surprises like the two recent whoppers in the UK: the wrong prediction of a razor-thin margin for David Cameron in 2015, followed by the wrong prediction of a Brexit defeat in this summer’s referendum. I’m a history professor. If anyone knows better than to make predictions, it’s me. Nevertheless, I predict that the Democratic Party will win the presidency and the Senate in November, but will continue as minority party in the House of Representatives. Let me explain why. Every fourth year, presidential elections bring out plenty

What next for Barack Obama?

What is to become of Barack Obama when he retires from the US presidency at the age of 55? I have a suggestion. There is a vacancy on the US Supreme Court, which the Republican majority in Congress has blocked him from filling. Obama, a constitutional lawyer, is ideally qualified. And he might have more influence as a Supreme Court justice than he ever did as President. This is an extract from Chris Mullin’s diary from this week’s Spectator magazine.

Freddy Gray

Introducing The Spectator’s US Election 2016 site

Welcome to The Spectator’s US Election 2016 site, brought to you in association with City Index. This will be home to the best British coverage of the biggest, maddest and baddest political event of the year. There has been no shortage of British coverage of the race to the White House in recent months; the world is gripped by the Donald Trump phenomenon. What’s been lacking, however, is shrewd, detailed analysis of what is actually happening in the American body politic — apart from, that is, on the pages on The Spectator. We’ve been the only British magazine to cover both Trump and Clinton intelligently and humorously. As far back as August

Syrian nightmare

‘We are used to death,’ said Ismail. He had been to the funerals of four friends in a single week, all killed by aerial bombs. ‘We’re used to bloodshed. We’re adapted to the situation and this style of life now. It’s normal. If you lose someone, then the next day you say, OK, life must go on.’ Ismail spoke to me from eastern-Aleppo, where as many as 250,000 people are under siege by the Syrian regime and ‘living on rice’, as he described it. He is in his late twenties and is one of the White Helmets, the civil defence volunteers who dig people out of the rubble after an

Brains for Trump

Last week more than 130 right-wing thinkers put their names to a defiant document — a list of ‘Scholars and Writers for America’ in support of Donald Trump. It includes the editors of five of the country’s leading conservative journals of ideas: R.R. Reno of the Christian conservative First Things; Roger Kimball of the New Criterion, the right’s leading journal of the arts; Charles Kesler of the Claremont Review of Books; the American Spectator’s R. Emmett Tyrrell; and me, the editor of the American Conservative. (Notably lacking are names from America’s oldest conservative magazine, National Review, which has been as hostile to Trump as the columnists of the New York

Lara Prendergast

Unhappy Pill

A study came out last week that should have caused great alarm. For 13 years, researchers at the University of Copenhagen studied more than a million women between the ages of 15 and 34 who were taking a type of drug — one that is popular in all developed countries. Taking this drug, the researchers found, correlated with an increase in the risk of depression. The correlation was particularly strong in adolescent girls, who showed an 80 per cent higher chance of being diagnosed with depression. Usually when a story about women’s health and depression breaks, a phalanx of activists and campaigners pop up all over the media to ‘raise awareness’ of the

Freddy Gray

Mike Pence won the vice-presidential debate, but it’s still bad news for the Donald

Governor Mike Pence can debate — who knew? Donald J Trump’s running mate has been fairly invisible so far this election — his star eclipsed by the great orange fireball that is Trump’s ego. But in last night’s vice-presidential debate, he shone. He was more political (in a good sense), more eloquent and more statesmanlike than his adversary. His performance was, in other words, the opposite of Trump’s in last week’s presidential debate. Tim Kaine, Hillary’s vice-presidential pick, didn’t do well. He seemed nervous and over-rehearsed: he fired off too many attack lines too quickly, and his tactic of always savaging Donald Trump rather than discussing the issues made him

Can Mike Pence defend the Donald in tonight’s vice-presidential debate?

Being Vice President of the US ranks as one of the worst jobs in the world. It comes with practically no power yet carries enough responsibility that it can kill your future career prospects. Cactus Jack Garner, the 32nd man to hold the post, famously described the position as ‘not worth a bucket of warm piss’. And they still have to work for it. Tonight we get to watch Tim Kaine, for the Democrats, and Mike Pence, for the Republicans, go head-to-head in the one – and only – vice presidential debate of the campaign. For 90 minutes, they’ll have to slug it out on live TV for the right to that

The Spectator took on Chancellor Merkel and President Erdogan – and won

Hurray!  It is not often one gets good news, but here is some.  Jan Boehmermann, the German comedian who read out a rude poem about Sultan Erdogan on German TV, has had the prosecution against him dropped.  In the last couple of hours prosecutors in Mainz said that they did not have ‘sufficient evidence’ against him. Well I say ‘Ha’ to that, for it is purest face-saving.  The evidence was broadcast out on German television in March for any and all to see.  President Erdogan complained and with the approval of Chancellor Merkel an ancient and outdated German law (about not insulting foreign rulers) was dusted off and Jan Boehmermann

Charles Moore

The science – and politics – of climate change

Matt Ridley, well known to Spectator readers, is giving the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s Annual Lecture on 17 October, at the premises of the Royal Society. The venue has annoyed New Scientist magazine. How dare the great home of science give house room to ‘those who deny climate science’, asks the paper’s ‘biology features editor’, Michael le Page. He hates the ‘false balance’ which presents opposing views. Revealing his own opinions to be more political than scientific, he cites the example of the US presidential election, where ‘the media’s abject failure to tackle Trump has let him get within spitting distance of the presidency’. Perhaps I am biased, since I

Martin Vander Weyer

Iceland the shop should be suing Iceland the country, not the other way around

Iceland wants to sue Iceland for misuse of its name. The former is a north Atlantic island whose fishermen-turned-financiers set standards of irresponsibility in the mid-2000s that made Wall Street’s Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros look like small-town building societies, attracting £20 billion of British depositors’ money into their mismanaged banks as they launched their own national economy into a mad caricature of boom and bust. The latter is a British supermarket chain, founded by Malcolm Walker in Oswestry in 1969 and offering a value-for-money -frozen-food range that is well appreciated by budget-conscious family shoppers. I’d say if anyone has a claim for reputational damage, it’s Iceland the retailer that

Want a bank rescued? Don’t ask a German

Make a car? Sure. Win a Word Cup? Yup. Write a symphony? Without doubt. There are lots of things that you rather have a German doing than anyone else in the world. But there are also a few things you’d rather they didn’t. Right now, rescuing a bank is right at the top of the list. All this week, the financial markets have been gripped by the slow-motion car-crash of Deutsche Bank. An institution that was once the mightiest in Europe, and a by-word for financial stability, is now teetering on the edge of collapse. Its share price has halved this year, and today is hitting a fresh 30-year low.

Diary – 29 September 2016

Monday night’s US presidential debate should convince a majority of American voters that Hillary Clinton is their only credible choice for the White House. Yet it may well fail to do so, in the new era of ‘post-truth politics’. The historian Sir Michael Howard suggests that on both sides of the Atlantic, we are witnessing a retreat from reason, an attempt to reverse the onset of the 18th-century Age of the Enlightenment, which banished superstition and religious faith as a basis for reaching conclusions. The progress of Donald Trump supports his thesis. I have just spent a fortnight in southern California, researching a book on the Vietnam war, and saw

New York Notebook | 29 September 2016

The first presidential debate was a disappointment. Half an hour into the big Trump-Clinton show on Long Island, many among the audience must have asked themselves why they weren’t watching The Real Housewives of Orange County instead. The strangest exchange concerned how to defeat Isis. Donald Trump said, ‘They’re beating us at our own game with the internet’ and Hillary Clinton agreed that winning requires ‘going after them online’. Hillary won by speaking in complete sentences, albeit brimming with bromides, while Trump lapsed into incoherence, apparently advised to sound calmer and more presidential. But Trump without his insults — of Mexicans, women and Muslims — just isn’t as much fun.

Russia’s puritan revolution

Last weekend a group of young activists turned out on a Moscow street to protest against western decadence. They were a hard-faced bunch, standing defiantly in military poses and wearing uniforms bearing the logo ‘Officers of Russia: Executive Youth Wing’ as they blocked access to an exhibition by American photographer Jock Sturges that featured images of nude adolescents. ‘We are here to protect people from paedo-philic influences,’ one Officer of Russia told journalists — while another protester sprayed the offending photographs with urine. At the same time, Russia’s state–controlled airwaves filled with senators, priests and government officials denouncing the wickedness of the exhibition (which shut down immediately after the protests)

Freddy Gray

Smug Hillary Clinton wins the first presidential debate. Donald Trump looks like a plonker

So, Donald Trump was being honest when he let it be known that he hadn’t swotted up for the first presidential debate. He was horribly unprepared, and it showed. The great reality TV star put in a really bad live performance in front of 100 million-odd viewers. Hillary Clinton was Hillary Clinton – smug, annoying, not half as clever as she thinks. A better debater would have demolished Trump – he gave her enough opportunities — but she did not. Still, she was well-drilled and she sounded professional. Trump sounded incoherent, even by his low standards. He made a complete mess of almost every point. Or, as one Republican insider put it to me in a text message, ‘He

Freddy Gray

Six things to expect from tonight’s Trump vs Clinton TV debate

Tonight’s first televised debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, on Long Island, New York, is expected to generate a ‘Super-Bowlesque’ audience. Analysts say that up to 112 million viewers could tune in, a figure that Donald Trump will interpret as an indication of his immense popularity. Even on this side of the Atlantic, a large number of people will stay up to the early hours (2am – 3.30am) to see the Donald versus Mrs C, such is the excitement surrounding the presidential election. So what can we expect? Here are six things to look out for: 1) Clinton will try so hard to appear healthy that she will end

Can President Rouhani really be described as a ‘moderate’?

Mark Twain once said that if you give a man a reputation as an early-riser he can sleep in till noon. The same is true of calling someone ‘a moderate’. Call someone ‘a moderate’ and they can rant like a fascist any day of the week without reprimand. President Rouhani of Iran has been called a moderate by most of the Western press and most of the Western governments. And so when he appeared at the UN this week and railed once again about the ‘Zionists’ controlling the U.S. Government including the U.S. Congress, it barely raises headlines. Surely a ‘moderate’ wouldn’t make such outlandish claims? And so the extremist

Charles Moore

Trump fans should be proud to call themselves ‘the Deplorables’

Hillary Clinton hazarded that half of Donald Trump’s supporters are a ‘basket of deplorables’. The Kaiser called the BEF a ‘contemptible little army’, Aneurin Bevan called the Tories ‘lower than vermin’ — and in both cases, those so named took up the insult as a badge of pride: the Old Contemptibles, the Vermin Club. I hope the Deplorables will organise as such, and march on Washington in their millions. This is an extract from Charles Moore’s Notes. The full article is available here.