World

Economic lessons from Germany

The Eurozone crisis is teaching us plenty about how to recover from recessions. The nations that tried a debt-fuelled stimulus have found that their economies haven’t grown much, but they are saddled with the extra debt. The Swedes have cut taxes for the low paid, the Estonians took the fast route back to fiscal sanity — and both are now growing well, in spite of the turmoil that has engulfed their neighbours. But what’s less well-known is Germany’s record of reform, and how it has helped the country reach unemployment at a 20-year low.   Ten years ago, the German economy itself was pretty stagnant. When it first entered the

James Forsyth

Who wins as Spain stutters?

The news that matters today isn’t what was said at Leveson, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the government won’t act on the inquiry’s report if it suggests anything big, but that the Spanish bailout is failing. Indeed, Spanish bank stocks are lower this evening than they were this morning and the yield on Spain’s 10 year bonds is back above six percent. But one group who will benefit from the Spanish bailout is Syriza, the Greek anti-bailout party. The decision to bailout Spain without fiscal conditions is a major boost to Syriza’s pitch that ultimately the rest of the Eurozone will blink if Greece demands changes to the terms of

UN observers enter Mazraat al-Qubeir

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said that ‘some foreign players’ are provoking opposition to the Assad regime while ‘demanding the international community take decisive steps to change the regime’. He also reiterated that Russia ‘will never agree to the use of force in the UN Security Council’, which would seem to impede Lord Owen’s plan that the West, led by the Turkish military, can intervene in Syria with Russia’s blessing. Meanwhile, UN observers recently entered Mazraat al-Quberir, scene of an alleged massacre of villagers. Journalists accompanying the observers report that there is evidence of killing (remnants of burnt flesh and bloodied clothing), but any bodies have been removed. There are

A final word on the BBC’s Jubilee

A very lively and enjoyable Any Questions last night from the beautiful town of Aldborough in North Yorkshire. The question which seemed to bring out perhaps the most passion from an already very passionate audience concerned the BBC’s coverage of the Jubilee celebrations. I didn’t envy Jonathan Dimbleby having to chair that one. No least because the question included a reference to his own reported criticism of the BBC’s coverage. I mentioned that I had simply turned over to Sky and others on the panel went on to attack the BBC’s management. But there are two points which I didn’t get a chance to air last night which I thought

Syrian massacres expose Britain’s pretence

More than a week on from the massacre at Houla, another hundred or so men, women and children have been slaughtered in Hama, Syria. They were apparently stabbed to death and some of their bodies then burned. David Cameron has responded to this by describing the killings as ‘brutal and sickening’. William Hague had previously described the Houla massacre as ‘deeply disturbing.’ So what is Britain going to do about it? The Prime Minister has a suggestion: ‘I think that lots of different countries in the world — countries that sit around the UN Security Council table — have got to sit down today and discuss this issue.’ He goes

James Forsyth

Storms over the continent

Whitehall sits and waits. Normal politics is continuing, squalls over whether the apprentice stewards at the Jubilee were taken advantage of and the next stage in the Warsi saga have dominated today, but everyone knows that the big story is unfolding — albeit, at an unpredictable pace — on the continent. There are, at the moment, two big questions. The first is how will Spain, which has essentially admitted that it will struggle to sell any more bonds, recapitalise its banks. Once again, we see the president of the ECB, the Commission and most of the other Eurozone members badgering the Germans to bend the rules and allow a quick

Tyrie’s ‘only plausible’ solution to the euro-crisis

The European melodrama continues. The European Commission is to publish draft legislation to insulate taxpayers from bailing-out Europe’s sclerotic banks in the future. The plan is to give governments the power to reduce the claims of shareholders and bondholders so that any losses are born by creditors not taxpayers. These changes, if enacted, would ease Mario Draghi’s design for a European banking union. But, as ever with Europe, these changes will come later rather than sooner, as late as 2018 in fact. These discussions are taking place while another Mediterranean storm appears to be gathering. Moody’s is the latest credit rating agency to sound the alarm: downgrading 6 German banking

A delicate balance in Syria

The situation in Syria is very precarious, according to multiple reports – including those of UN observers. Diplomatic tensions remain as before, with Russia and China unyielding in their intransigence. The question of intervention (in some form) is being considered, and all options are supposed to be on the table. Sir Malcolm Rifkind, chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, has said that a blockade of arms should be imposed by policing the eastern Mediterranean and encouraging Iraq and Turkey to secure their borders and airspace. He said: ‘We have to find a way of demonstrating to them that it’s not just speeches that we make but we actually give

The virtue of restraint

As Britain prepares for a week of peaceful celebration, Syria will be bracing itself for more bloodshed. The Assad regime, perhaps emboldened by the knowledge that the west has no appetite to intervene in Syria, is becoming ever more brutal in its repression. The massacre in villages around Houla, where 108 were slain, most of them women and children, has shocked the world. The images of tiny bodies being prepared for burial pose an uncomfortable question for Britain. Is David Cameron prepared to intervene to stop the bloodshed as he did in Libya? For more than a year now, the West has mulled over its options. During that time Assad’s

Clinton hurts Obama

Bill Clinton — the man who was such a thorn in Barack Obama’s side during the 2008 Democratic primaries — has become one of the current President’s most important supporters this time around. All the more significant, then, that Clinton has added his name to the list of Democrats who have voiced concern at one of Team Obama’s attacks on Mitt Romney. For a while now, the Obama campaign has been trying to make Romney’s investment career at Bain Capital, which he founded, as a reason for voters not to back the presumptive Republican nominee. They’ve hit him with the stories of workers who lost their jobs at companies taken

James Forsyth

The push for a European Banking Union

The warning by Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, that the euro is ‘unsustainable unless further steps are undertaken’ is about as stark as they come. I’m informed that what Draghi is pushing for behind the scenes is for the ECB’s remit to be expanded to include Eurozone financial policy. This would lead to, to put it crudely, the creation of a European Banking Union. It would see the ECB take over from national governments when it comes to bank bailouts and the like. This would, in turn, ease some of the pressures on countries like Spain whose borrowing costs are being driven up by the market’s

EXCLUSIVE – Giscard d’Estaing: Hollande will fail

Valéry Giscard d’Estaing is an energetic 86-year old. When we meet in Paris, for the first interview he’s given since the Socialists took power earlier this month, the former French president is fresh off the plane from a hunting trip in Namibia. Soon, he’ll hop on another flight bound for China, where he heads a think tank.   Giscard still holds the record for being the youngest president of the Fifth Republic – he was 48 when he took the keys to the Élysée. But there’s another claim to fame he’ll be glad to have relinquished – until Sarkozy’s defeat, he was the only recent leader not to win a

Alex Massie

Obama’s Polish Blunder

In Washington, as Andrew Sullivan reminds us, a gaffe is when a politician inadvertently blurts out what they actually believe. It is always occasion for equal measures of embarrassment and entertainment. So, no, Barack Obama’s reference to a “Polish death camp” was not a gaffe. Worse than that, it was a blunder. Not of malice but of carelessness or ignorance but not much better for that. To recap: Obama was awarding the Medal of Freedom (posthumously) to Jan Karski when he said this: “Jan served as a courier for the Polish resistance during the darkest days of World War II. Before one trip across enemy lines, resistance fighters told him

Romney’s Donald Trump problem

When Obama brilliantly skewered Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last year, you might’ve thought the billionaire would slink off the political field. But, to the great glee of Team Obama, ‘The Donald’ is still keen to keep playing. Ever since Trump’s endorsement of Mitt Romney back in February, the Democrats have been attacking Romney by association (‘They both like firing people’, they said, tying Romney’s ‘I like being able to fire people’ gaffe to Trump’s famous Apprentice catchphrase).   And yesterday, the Obama campaign put out an ad attacking Romney for not denouncing Trump’s claims that the President wasn’t born in the US, contrasting it with the

Spinner unspun

UPDATE: The below video has now been taken down from YouTube, but Guido has another copy here. Guido was first to this video of Downing St’s Director of Communications, Craig Oliver, remonstrating with the political correspondent Norman Smith about the tone of a BBC report — but it’s worth posting again here. Mr Oliver, it seems, didn’t realise that the camera was still running, showing the public more than they usually see of Westminster politics:

Ross Clark

The price of gold

On 27 July millions will drown in syrup as Jacques Rogge, President of the International Olympic Committee, delivers his usual platitudes about international togetherness and sport without boundaries. He might, for example, do something close to reciting the mission statement of the IOC’s world conference on Sport for All, held in Beijing last September: ‘to build a better world by encouraging the practice of sport for all, particularly in the developing world’. Then, once the last firework has been discharged and the stands are cleared away, we can get on with the business of the Olympics: rich countries hauling in the medals which they bought with mountains of public and

Martin Vander Weyer

Any other business: It rained on President Hollande’s first parade, but not on mine

While François Hollande was being shoulder-barged by Angela Merkel as they inspected a rained-on guard of honour during the French president’s tense first visit to Berlin, I was enjoying a parallel encounter with military formality in the spring sunshine of Rome. In town to lecture at the Nato Defence College, I shared a staff car with a Luftwaffe general. A former fighter pilot who did his training with the RAF, he’s now part of Nato’s ‘smart defence’ command structure, which seeks efficiencies by combining national resources where it makes sense without compromising the kit that individual nations might one day need for themselves — such as, in Britain’s case, for

Travel special – Scottish borders: On the edge

It’s odd, but most of the English faces we see in our wee corner of the Scottish Borders are merely ‘stopping’ for a night or two on their way north. What is the point, they wonder, in driving all this way only to settle a hair’s breadth past that gaudy ‘Welcome to Scotland’ sign? If they must visit Scotland, they think, they might as well do the thing properly. The Borders aren’t really Scotland, after all — just that last tedious leg of the A68 on the way into Edinburgh. They are, of course, gravely mistaken. You will find as strong a sense of Scotland here as in the grimmest

Alex Massie

Villains of the Financial Crisis? Neoconservatives, of course…

Fulminating against the government’s economic policies, the Observer complained recently that: For a generation, business and finance, cheered on by US neoconservatives and free market fundamentalists, have argued that the less capitalism is governed, regulated and shaped by the state, the better it works. Markets do everything best – managing business and systemic risk, innovating, investing, organising executive reward – without the intervention of the supposed dead hand of the state and without any acknowledgement of wider social obligations. Gosh, is there nothing that can’t be blamed on those dastardly neoconservatives? I suppose the term has now been detached from its original meaning and is instead a catch-all label for

Alex Massie

Will Obama Dump Biden for Hillary?

Mike Tomasky enters the Veepstakes with a variation on a well-worn theme: Will Barack Obama replace Joe Biden with Hillary Clinton? This is a Question To Which The Answer Is No. To be fair Tomasky, whose piece is supported by a single shoogly opinion poll showing Romney leading Obama amongst women voters, all but admits it’s a close-to-garbage notion: The one question is this: How is it justified publicly? This is one of those situations when you just obviously can’t tell the truth. The truth is: With Clinton, we win in a near-landslide, and with Biden, it’s iffy, and we want to win. What you say is something like: This