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Freddy Gray speaks to Chris Whipple, whose latest book Lesson Learned from Uncharted: How Trump Beat Biden, Harris, and the Odds in the Wildest Campaign in History gives an insiders’ analysis having spoken to the people closest to both campaigns.
The release of Edan Alexander, the last living American-Israeli hostage held by Hamas, was a moment of profound relief for his family and a rare flicker of hope for war-fatigued Israelis. The 21-year-old soldier, kidnapped on 7 October 2023, walked free on 12 May 2025 after 584 days in hell. The jubilation was quickly muddied by political spin. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ever the opportunist, claimed the release stemmed from Israel’s relentless military pressure. The truth, however, lies elsewhere: American backchannels, led by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, secured Alexander’s freedom through quiet diplomacy in Qatar, not IDF bombs in Gaza. Netanyahu’s attempt to claim credit reveals a deeper rift: President Trump harbours little trust in Bibi.
This weekend in Muscat, US and Iranian diplomats held a fourth round of talks, continuing their efforts to find a way through an impasse that has bedevilled US-Iran relations since 1979. By all accounts, the negotiations so far have been a mixed bag. The overall picture remains slightly confused, particularly around the issue of uranium enrichment. Some hardliners in Tehran are getting cold feet, and old entrenched narratives on both sides of the divide are beginning to resurface as the going gets tough. Sources close to the talks have indicated that the US might agree to Iranian domestic uranium enrichment – either frozen state or limited – while, in return, Iran
France’s interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, and his party Les Républicains (LR) are moving to end the decades-long monopoly on providing legal advice held by left-leaning NGOs inside migrant detention centres. A new Senate bill seeks to strip NGOs such as Cimade and France terre d’asile of their exclusive role providing legal assistance to undocumented migrants awaiting expulsion. In their place, the government wants a more neutral, accountable system without publicly funded activists obstructing its deportation policy. Critics argue that activist lawyers file migrant appeals in large volumes, often with little legal merit. These automatic suspensions delay deportations The bill, tabled by Les Républicains, is part of a broader crackdown. It proposes to end
Trade between Russia and China is no longer booming as it was immediately after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. In 2024, annual trade between the two was up 1.9 per cent from the previous year to $240 billion (£182 billion). But in the first four months of 2025, it fell 7.5 per cent from the past year to just $71.1 billion (£54 billion), according to Chinese customs data. Chinese exports to Russia are down 5.3 per cent ($30.8 billion or £23 billion), while Russian deliveries to China are down 9.1 per cent ($40.3 billion or £30.5 billion) between January and April. The drop in Russian exports can
China has wrapped up a pretty good trade deal. The UK has managed to agree to lift some of the US tariffs. With President Trump touring the Gulf states this week, they may soon have an arrangement in place, especially as Qatar took the precaution of gifting the president a new 747. Japan may well have something signed over the next few weeks. There is just one exception. Where is the EU’s deal? President Trump has described the EU as ‘nastier than China’ Despite the panic last month, it looks like the global trading system will soon be back to relative normal. The US and China, the two largest economies
The last surviving American hostage held by Hamas in Gaza is set to be released as early as today, coinciding with the arrival tomorrow of President Trump in the Middle East. The timing could not be more significant. Previous attempts to negotiate the release of Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old Israeli-American soldier from an elite army unit, failed despite high-level talks in Qatar. However, Hamas – not a terror organisation known for its nuanced approach to diplomacy – clearly realised that with Trump in the region, their ‘gesture of good will’ might pay additional dividends. Alexander was serving on the border with Gaza on 7 October 2023 when Hamas gunmen arrived
The Kurdish militia group, the PKK, had decided to disband and lay down its arms, after decades of launching attacks against Turkey and bombing civilian areas. The move came after the PKK’s ageing jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called in February for the group to end its campaign. From his prison cell, Ocalan sent a message to his followers: ‘I am making a call for the laying down of arms… The PKK must dissolve itself.’ Ocalan wondered if Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams might be able to help? ‘I know he is a friend of ours,’ he said. The Marxist-inspired PKK, which has long been branded a terrorist organisation by Turkey
We’ve learnt three things about the future of world trade from the temporary reprieve over tariffs that the US has given China – and China’s response to it. One is the markets are now confident that both countries will be sensible. The massively negative reaction they gave to ‘liberation day’ on 2 April signalled their hatred of uncertainty but also of stupidity. Before Donald Trump’s arbitrary jacking up of tariffs to what were really absurd levels, they had assumed that he would ensure that there would be reasonable continuity of world trade. His plans, and China’s robust reaction, led to nagging doubts that their assumption might be wrong, there really
This weekend, the United States struck a deal with China that will see American tariffs on Beijing’s exports come back down to manageable levels again, while China will lower its levies on imports from the US. The giant container ports on both sides of the Pacific can now be re-opened. The factories across China can get back to work, and Wal-Mart and Target can start placing orders again. The global economy can start moving once more – but significantly, it will very quickly become clear who has won the tariff war: China. The deal that was announced this morning in Switzerland, where negotiations took place, by the US Treasury Secretary
Ceasefire then talks, or talks then ceasefire? This has emerged as one of the pivotal issues in the diplomacy around the war in Ukraine, even if one could question just how genuine both sides are in their respective positions. The proposed talks in Istanbul on Thursday may help clarify matters, but both sides seem more committed to appeasing the White House than talking peace. On Saturday, the usual suspects of Europe – the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland – met in Kyiv and demanded Vladimir Putin call an immediate 30-day ceasefire, on pain of further sanctions. The usual pattern for peace talks is indeed a cessation of
Observers of the American film industry have been fretting about its prospects for almost as long as it has existed. They questioned its viability in the wake of television, bemoaned the impact of the studio system on creative freedom, lamented the rise of the blockbuster, wondered where the blockbuster had gone, and pronounced that streaming and Covid would kill off moviegoing. Now Donald Trump has designated the decline of Hollywood ‘a national security threat’. A presidential proclamation on the future of movies. The best Pauline Kael could ever do was 5,000 words in the New Yorker. Industry insiders are bemused by this abrupt show of solidarity from a political party
The phrase divide et impera has echoed through history, its power as relevant today as it was in ancient Rome. Divide and conquer; rule through division. Rulers, then and now, have wielded this principle like a double-edged sword – deepening rifts to maintain control, ensuring that wounds never fully heal. At best, they turn into scars, waiting to be torn open again at the slightest provocation. War is a terrible thing. And yet, even a tragedy of this scale has taught us something In my own country, Ukraine, I’ve witnessed the devastating impact of this strategy for many years. While Western Ukrainians once called for the Donbas to be fenced
If you think that it is only Chinese infiltrators roaming across the West, including on our very shores, then think again. For all the ever-expanding scope of ballistic missiles, frigates, and drones in North Korea’s arsenal, the hermit kingdom has been adding another body of weaponry to its toolkit: cyberwarfare capabilities. It is yet another example of the North Korean regime denying its people one thing but providing its confidantes with another. Whilst the North Korean people are forbidden from accessing the worldwide web, the Kim regime has long been cultivating a network of state-sponsored computer scientists and hackers to fulfil one of the country’s core goals, namely, making money
After more than four days of clashes since the early hours of Wednesday morning, India and Pakistan have agreed to a full ceasefire. President Donald Trump announced it on his Truth Social Platform, confirming that the ceasefire had come ‘after a long night of talks mediated by the United States’. The announcement was made hours after Pakistan launched Operation Banyan al-Marsous with both Islamabad and New Delhi claiming to have struck each other’s military bases with heavy missiles. Pakistan’s strikes were a response to India’s Operation Sindoor that had been aimed at jihadist sites in Pakistan, following the April 22 militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. While claims of both sides
When I was a girl – shortly after the repeal of the Corn Laws – a common rhetorical question was ‘Who won the bloody war anyway?’ whenever the Germans came up in conversation. We were The Sick Man Of Europe; they were My Perfect Cousin. Not any longer: German politics now looks rather chaotic compared to ours. Their chancellor Friedrich Merz stumbled into office this week on the second go. So terrified is the paternalistic, pompous German establishment that they are considering banning the AfD: that notorious fascist party led by a lesbian in a relationship with a Sri Lankan woman. Where did it all go so wrong for our
‘What happens next?’ is the worried question I keep getting from Indian and Pakistani friends as military exchanges between the two countries continue. The current crisis was eminently predictable – in nature, if not in timing – as terrorist incidents persisted, albeit at lower levels, in Kashmir and given relations between India and Pakistan were so poor. Both countries had long signalled their approach and rehearsed it during crises in 2016 and 2019. India had made clear that it would respond to significant terrorist incidents with kinetic actions at a time and in a manner of their choosing. Pakistan’s military and political leadership were equally forthright: if India did so,
Once again, the ruler of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, is making headlines. And once again, he has announced his intention to step down from his position. But is it for real this time? Kadyrov has hinted at resigning on at least five separate occasions. Each time, the official explanation as to why he hasn’t stepped down has been that President Vladimir Putin refused to accept his resignation. As Kadyrov, who likes to call himself Putin’s loyal infantryman, dutifully points out, he is always willing to serve his patron – and so he remains in power. These announcements are often accompanied by choreographed public outcries from Chechnya, where citizens, as reported by
About once a month, the Royal Air Force scrambles Typhoon fighters for something called a Quick Reaction Alert (QRA). Typically, two Russian nuclear-capable bombers approach Scotland, the RAF aircraft shadow them closely and, at a suitably theatrical moment, the Russians turn away. The episode merits a tiny press release from the Ministry of Defence. Russia is continuously demonstrating its preparedness to cause mass death on the British mainland What most people don’t realise is that the Russian aircraft often open their bomb doors, revealing missiles which may, or may not, contain nuclear warheads; and that they line up on specific targets: city centres, nuclear power stations, airports, or other strategic
It was almost like old times, but also a sign of the new. Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day parade passed off without a hitch, rumbling and squeaking with armour, untroubled by Ukrainian drones, and watched over by foreign leaders there in a sign of support. Yet the efforts made to ensure the parade ran smoothly, the nature of the guest list, and Putin’s rhetoric all highlighted the new times. The most recent iterations of the parade had been distinctly reduced affairs, a single Second World War vintage T-34 tank substituting for the usual phalanx of tanks, and the guests largely confined to Putin’s clients. For the 80th anniversary of the end
