World

Thursday

Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Will Ukraine’s Kursk offensive pay off?

For the first time since the Second World War, foreign forces have invaded Russia. As Ukrainian troops push over the border into the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin, with breathtaking lack of irony, denounces this as ‘terrorism’ and a ‘provocation’. But what is Kyiv’s goal? Previous incursions, largely into the Belgorod region, have been carried out by small units of pro-Kyiv Russia troops, so although they are in practice controlled by HUR, Ukrainian military intelligence, this could be spun as ‘liberation’ by anti-Putin forces. However, these have also been little more than PR exercises: a dash across the border to take some half-defended villages, some selfies, and a hurried withdrawal. The

Lukas Degutis

Hungary is stretching the EU’s patience to its limit

Hungary is no stranger to spats with its European neighbours. Under prime minister Viktor Orbán’s leadership, it has exercised veto rights to block Ukrainian military aid and Russian sanctions, delayed the Nato accessions of Sweden and Finland and shrugged off EU asylum regulations. For Budapest, the disputes have proven to be effective leverage in unfreezing funds — once €30million (£25 million), now some €22million (£19 million) — held by the Commission over rule of law violations and corruption concerns. For the EU, Hungary is a diplomatic headache – and one that may be about to get worse. When Hungary assumed the bloc’s rotating presidency last month, Orbán flew to Moscow

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: riots and Russia’s prisoner swap

Home A week of riots, with violence against the police, threats to Muslims, burning of vehicles and looting (Greggs, Shoezone, Sainsbury’s Local) broke out in Liverpool, Sunderland, London, Hartlepool, Manchester, Hull, Aldershot, Stoke-on-Trent, Bristol, Bolton, Tamworth, Portsmouth, Weymouth, Leeds, Rotherham, Middlesbrough, Nottingham, Blackpool, Plymouth and Belfast. The Northern Ireland Assembly was recalled. Rioters attacked hotels where asylum-seekers were living. They threw fencing, beer kegs, glass bottles and furniture at police, wounding scores. Activity was coordinated on social media. The anger of most rioters was directed against Muslims in general and hotels housing asylum-seekers. ‘Save our children’ was one of the chants. This in part followed a misapprehension about the person

Zafar Sobhan

How students toppled Bangladesh’s despot

Dhaka On Monday, Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, resigned and fled the country by helicopter to India. Parliament was dissolved the following day. It came after weeks of protest by students demanding reform of the quota system for government jobs. Violent clashes led to more than 300 people being killed. Under Sheikh Hasina’s iron-fisted rule, Bangladesh descended into a parody of third-world despotism To see the tables turned on an all-powerful ruler is, for those of us who have been living under an authoritarian regime, extraordinary. Thousands have been celebrating this week on the streets of Dhaka. At the time of writing, 76-year-old Hasina remains a forlorn figure. She

Paul Wood

Can anything stop a full-scale conflict in the Middle East?

The fact that the Middle East stands on the brink of a catastrophic war can be explained by a scene from The Gentlemen, Guy Ritchie’s preposterous but entertaining series on Netflix about aristocrats and sarf London drug-dealers. The dim eldest son of a duke is in trouble with a vicious gangster, who makes him dress up as a chicken and cluck and dance while the whole excruciating spectacle is filmed. Eventually the humiliation is too much for the aristo: he gets the family Purdey and blasts the gangster in the face – even though he knows that there will be terrible consequences. The government has told Israelis to stock up

Jonathan Aitken

My ringside seat at the Nixon resignation melodrama

American politics seem particularly febrile in 2024. The sitting President has withdrawn from the election, days after his predecessor was shot campaigning at a rally in Pennsylvania. But American democracy is by nature restless and tumultuous. It’s worth remembering that 50 years ago this week, Washington was in turmoil over the question of whether Richard Nixon was going to resign. Those early days of August 1974 seem like yesterday to those of us who became swept up in them. At the time I was a 31-year-old MP, five months into my first parliamentary term as an opposition backbencher. My summer recess took me to the home of a hospitable Anglophile

Wednesday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Is Trump having a meltdown?

37 min listen

Since Kamala Harris ascended to top of the ticket, there have been reports of meltdowns in Trump world, with Republican strategists suggesting Trump is having a public breakdown. Has the era of a thoughtful, poignant Trump already disappeared? Also on the podcast, Kamala Harris’s VP pick came as a shock to many Democrats, with insiders believing Josh Shapiro was the favourite. Why didn’t Kamala opt for Josh Shapiro – the candidate the Republicans feared most? And with the left of the Democrats becoming increasingly polarised over issues like Israel-Gaza, was this part of a strategy to mobilise the base? Freddy Gray speaks to Editor-at-Large of the WSJ, Gerard Baker.

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Is the Trump ‘meltdown’ a Democratic fantasy?

Talk of Donald Trump ‘meltdowns’ tends to be overblown. For eight years, we’ve been told, frequently, that he’s losing the plot, fuming at staffers, having tantrums and setting fire to his re-election hopes. Somehow, however, the Trump train keeps chugging on.  This week, Republican strategists are telling Politico that Trump is having ‘a public nervous breakdown’ and many Democrats are gloating that he and JD Vance just can’t handle being called ‘weird’ by Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota.   The Trump campaign now believes that Walz gives them a chance to ‘reset’ It is true that, having run a surprisingly disciplined campaign for

Charlie Gammell

Why a major war in the Middle East feels inevitable

Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist writing roughly 2,500 years ago, said that ‘Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.’ As we stand on the precipice of a truly frightening regional conflict, which pits a technologically advanced Israel and its allies against Iran and its allies in a war of asymmetry, this tension between strategy and tactics will be a crucial determinant of whether this war ever ends.  We are in an escalatory spiral of tactical exchanges, with both sides aiming for that elusive sweet spot of striking a blow so forceful that it deters the other side from further action, but not so

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Market apocalypse? No, a welcome correction

A bout of global stock-market turmoil and an outbreak of UK street violence as adjacent news items gave an apocalyptic feel to the start of the week. But as rioting continued, markets appeared to steady, led by Tokyo with a 10 per cent Tuesday rebound. We know the ugly sentiments that animate the thugs – but do we understand the sudden nerviness of investors? Once media clamour about 1,000-point falls subsided, two strands emerged, both American. First, fear – driven by bad employment figures – that the US economy is weaker than previously thought, fuelling a conviction that the Federal Reserve should have cut interest rates at its late-July meeting

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Europe is worried that Britain’s riots might spread

The riots that have erupted across England in the last week have been splashed across Europe’s newspapers and broadcast on the primetime news. There have been editorials in France’s Le Monde, video reports in Spain’s El Pais and podcasts in Sweden’s Aftonbladet. The Italian newspaper, La Stampa, published video footage of disturbances in Plymouth on Monday night, and described the rioters as a mix of ‘extremists and hooligans’. Why did the anti-immigration riots not explode first in France or Germany? Some of the coverage has been superficial. The editorial in Le Monde read: ‘The current riots raise the painful question of the underestimated influence of the far-right in the UK, in a country that likes to recall its traditions

Tuesday

Amber Duke

Kamala Harris picks Tim Walz as running mate

US vice president Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota governor Tim Walz to be her running mate. Walz, a Midwestern Democrat with deep ties to labour movements, will be seen as an opportunity for Harris to hang on to some of the ‘blue wall’ states that president Joe Biden flipped from Donald Trump in the 2020 election. CV-wise, Walz is impressive: he was born in a small town in Nebraska, joined the Army National Guard, worked as a high-school social studies teacher and was elected to Congress in 2006. He won the governor’s mansion in Minnesota in 2018 and won reelection in 2022. Walz has his own history of pro-Israel policies and

Philip Patrick Philip Patrick

Japan’s volatile stock market is causing panic

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index registered its biggest ever daily fall on Monday, plummeting by over 12 per cent and continuing the extraordinary collapse that began last Friday. Meanwhile, the Yen, which had been slowly eroding in value for months continued its dramatic resurrection moving from 162 to the dollar to under 140. At the time of writing, a technical rebound seems to be underway – but such volatility is alarming. After years of nothing very interesting happening to the Japanese economy, such upheavals have stunned locals and provoked urgent questions about causes and consequences. As to what has caused this, most are pointing to the Bank of Japan’s surprise interest

Monday

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

How oil became the latest Chinese food scandal

53 min listen

Whenever I go back to China, I try to eat as much as I can – delicious Chinese food that I can’t have outside of the country, whether childhood favourites or the latest food trends. But I’m often struck by my relatives and friends who turn their noses up at many of these delicious dishes – they commonly say ‘不敢吃’ – ‘I’m scared to eat it’. The Chinese middle class can now be very discerning about the food that they eat, and who can blame them? In the last twenty years, there seems to have been a steady stream of food safety and hygiene scandals – most infamously melamine-laced milk

David Bergman

The terrible error that ended Sheikh Hasina’s rule over Bangladesh

A month ago, no one in Bangladesh could ever have imagined that the country’s authoritarian prime minister Sheikh Hasina could be forcibly removed from power and sent by military helicopter out of the country to India. Least of all Hasina herself, as her party, the Awami League, controlled the police, the judiciary, and all other state institutions. But that is exactly what happened today. Sheikh Hasina, the aunt of the Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, had been in power for a 15-year stretch. Though the 2008 elections which first made her prime minister were free and fair, all three subsequent elections in 2014, 2018 and earlier this year were beset with allegations

Eliot Wilson

It’s not surprising Russia wants to spy on Britain

The British Army’s Field Army Threat Handbook has warned soldiers of potential Russian espionage at UK sites where Ukrainian military personnel are being trained. Possible methods identified include ‘the use of remotely piloted aircraft systems, mobile and foot surveillance, virtual and physical approaches to training providers and interest from investigative journalists’. This is a threat we should take seriously, but it should also serve to clarify the United Kingdom’s current adversarial relationship with Russia. There is no shortage of gloomy Jeremiahs in the public arena at the moment, arguing that we are unprepared for a potential major conflict, that the armed forces do not have the resources needed to meet

Jay Mens

How will Iran seek to ‘punish’ Israel?

It was never just about Gaza. Since October, the Middle East has been in a regional war that, over the next few weeks, is likely to break into the open. After Israel’s airstrike on Beirut and assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, Iran is promising a different approach. Following the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and the Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, they promised enteqam: revenge. Today, they say mojazat – punishment, or khun-khahi: literally ‘a desire for blood’. Israel has three outstanding blood debts accumulated over the past few weeks from across the self-styled ‘Axis of Resistance’. It bombed Hodeidah, the Houthi-controlled port in Yemen,

Sunday

Philip Patrick Philip Patrick

Japan is running out of rice

Japan is running out of rice. Stocks have fallen to their lowest levels in decades, prompting fears that emergency reserves may need to be accessed. Prices have hit a 30-year high as private companies held just 1.56 million tons in June, the lowest level since 1999 and 20 per cent less than the previous year. Partly this is just the result of a poor crop caused by unfavourable climatic conditions – high temperatures combined with water shortages. But there is more to it than that: whereas Japan would once have shrugged off an occasional bad year, the poor state of the farming industry in Japan means seasonal fluctuations in yield

Adam LeBor

Remembering the Roma Holocaust, 80 years later

On 16 May, 1944, as the first full trainloads of Hungarian Jews trundled towards Auschwitz, the SS decided to clear out the area known as the ‘Gypsy family camp’ to make room for the new arrivals. The family camp housed several thousand Roma and Sinti (Roma with German roots) people. Like the Jews, they were classified as racially inferior and enemies of the Third Reich. But while Jewish arrivals were immediately removed from their loved ones, Roma families were often allowed to stay together. Their numbers were much smaller and they refused to be separated. Claimant 3102250 finally received the standard compensation for her ordeal That day, the Roma and

Ralph Outhwaite

How Islamic State makes money

As if the French hadn’t enough on their plates, with turbulent elections and an underwhelming Euros performance, they’ve now had to contend with the prospect of terrorism blighting the Olympic Games. At least one major terror plot has been foiled by the French authorities, and pro-Islamic State channels are issuing threats to stadiums and fans. The main concern comes from the Afghanistan-based ‘Islamic State of the Khorasan Region’ (IS-K), and for good reason too. Back in March 2023, US Army General Michael Kurilla warned Congress that IS-K could launch an attack against European targets with ‘little to no warning’. A year later, the group took responsibility for the attack on the Crocus City Hall