Money

The Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections are, of course, shatteringly bad for the Conservatives and Boris Johnson. They should finally destroy any illusions Conservatives hold about the PM’s electoral appeal. As I and several others have often pointed out, Boris is not a Heineken politician and hasn’t been one since the middle of the last decade. Analysis of by-election results is often bad. In the minutes and hours after the result, commentators scramble to explain what local results mean for national politics, in a crowded field where political actors are doing their best to skew the narrative in their own interests. That being so, I’m not going to try to tell

The latest data on the UK’s public finances have provided more ammunition for those arguing that the government cannot afford to cut taxes. However, the economic reality is far more nuanced – especially when it comes to interest payments. The bad news is that the government borrowed another £14 billion in May, £3.7 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This reflected both lower-than-expected tax receipts, despite the increase in National Insurance contributions, and higher spending, including £7.6 billion in debt interest costs. This means that the government has already borrowed £35.9 billion in the first two months of the new fiscal year, or £6.4 billion

As Boris Johnson tries to limit pay rises to bring down inflation, ministers have no explanation for why planned rises in the state pension and benefits would be less inflationary than increasing teachers’ and nurses’ pay. The government is attempting to limit public sector pay to 3 per cent, while allowing pensions and benefits to rise to around 10 per cent.  This is not to argue against protecting the poorest through the standard indexation of pensions and benefits. But it is to say that Mr Johnson’s pay policy is confusing. And he cannot pretend there is no pay policy. Even refusing to engage directly in pay talks with rail workers – despite owning the

Are wages about to spiral out of control? Boris Johnson certainly thinks there’s a risk. Last week he warned that the economy was ‘steering into the wind’ and that the UK could be entering a 1970s-style malaise. With inflation shooting up to 9 per cent – and expected to go higher still – rail workers are embarking on the first of three days of industrial action today, demanding a minimum pay rise of 7 per cent. Network Rail has offered just 2 per cent, with the potential for an extra 1 per cent on top if they can meet productivity targets later this year. Barristers too have voted for a

In the French presidential elections, and now in the legislatives that will close on Sunday evening, the one issue kept under the carpet is finance. Neither the centrist Macronista grouping ‘Ensemble!’, nor the far-left Corbynista-like Nupes coalition of Jean-Luc Mélenchon has updated the electorate on how their manifestos are to be funded. And yet over the last month French finances have deteriorated dramatically. Neither programme has the slightest chance of being implemented without plunging French finances, and thus the eurozone generally, into a new sovereign debt crisis. France is dancing on a debt volcano. The unabashedly ideological Nupes programme calls for nationalisation of the banking and energy sectors, motorways, strategic

The Bank of England has just raised interest rates for the fifth time in the row, warning that inflation is expected to pass 11 per cent by the end of this year. If it had escaped your notice, everything is getting more expensive, and the government is powerless to help. The extent of the Bank’s assistance has been to tell you not to ask for a payrise. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, seems furious that taxes are so high, and will be having stern words with whoever raised them. Even Freddo bars aren’t exempt from the cost of living crisis, shooting up to a frankly outrageous 30p each. Inflation is essentially a problem of

Stock markets are crashing. Bond yields are soaring. And the cryptos are evaporating. There is so much going on in the financial markets right now it would be hard to miss the most significant event. The eurozone crisis, which almost broke apart the single currency back in 2011 and 2012, is back. And this time around, there is no very obvious way of fixing it. With inflation soaring across the world, the era of plentiful printed money coming to an end and interest rates starting to rise, every kind of financial market is in turmoil. Investors are adjusting to a new set of circumstances, and doing so very quickly. So

First the good news: the Office for National Statistics figures released today show that pay is rising at its fastest rate in two decades, with regular pay up by 4.2 per cent in the three months for February to April compared with a year earlier. Now the bad news: such is inflation that, in real terms, regular pay was actually down 2.2 per cent – lower than at any time in the past two decades except for a brief period in the autumn of 2011. So, yes, it isn’t just an illusion: we really are getting poorer. That is a big problem not just for households trying to make ends

It’s the highest form of flattery, but is Apple really trying to copy Klarna? That’s the allegation made by the Swedish firm, which has led the way with so-called ‘buy now, pay later’ credit. Last week Apple announced that it too would be offering deferred payments via Apple Pay, as well as the option to split repayments over several instalments. It’s something that Klarna has been flogging for over a decade. And it’s already pretty popular: nearly a quarter of British shoppers have used Klarna’s services. Now its founder ​​Sebastian Siemiatkowski has accused Apple of nicking his concept. In reality, Klarna isn’t the only, or even the first, company to

Of all the epithets for Latin America, the most frustrating and demoralising must be the ‘forgotten continent’. Latin America is not so much forgotten as overlooked. Part of the reason for this may lie in its cultural proximity but geographical distance to the West: what Alain Rouquié, the French political scientist, called ‘far-western’. Familiarity, even on these fringes, has bred indifference. Last month, however, Britain remembered its historical ties to Latin America when Boris Johnson welcomed the President of Uruguay, Luis Lacalle Pou, to Downing Street. The invitation had been extended and not sought, which the President was quick to point out to the Uruguayan press. This was a meeting

Has the Financial Times just been sold another pup? Its economics editor Chris Giles (who predicted that the Brexit vote would lead to recession) has written what could be a Labour Party press release today. He reports as fact a claim by the NIESR, a left-leaning economics think tank, that Rishi Sunak could have saved £11 billion had he taken their advice and taken out insurance against rising interest rates. A startling claim, interesting hypothetical and worthy of a report. It might fall down upon further scrutiny: could the Treasury really ordered the Bank of England to force commercial banks to swap reserves for gilts? Would this not have been a massive

As part of his revival (and survival) strategy, Boris Johnson is trying his hardest to convince the public and fellow MPs that he can get the cost of living crisis under control. But did today’s speech help him make that case? His wide-ranging speech in Lancashire covered a vast array of economic, policy and trade topics, which he struggled to pull into a cohesive theme. ‘We do not grow many olives in the UK,’ he pointed out. ‘Why do we have tariffs on bananas?’ Both excellent points when it comes to liberalising trade, but not obviously at the top of people’s priority lists when it comes to tackling energy bills