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Another big fiscal event for Rishi Sunak today, as he delivered his Budget and the details of a three-year spending review. For the first time, Covid-19 wasn’t in the spotlight. Instead it was framed as a big-spending event, confirming plans briefed before the Budget — £7 billion in capital spending for the NHS, end of the public sector pay freeze — and announcing a series of new plans, including the return of increased foreign aid spending at 0.7 per cent of GDP by 2024-25. But break down the numbers and there are even more surprises in store. Here are the six things we learnt from today’s Budget: The tax take

Rishi Sunak has released photos of his Budget prep, as he prepares to stand up in the House of Commons tomorrow to deliver not just the government’s latest fiscal decisions, but the results of its three-year spending review. (Photos include a shot of his pre-Budget Twix and Sprite snack, which Sunak revealed to Katy Balls on Times Radio over the weekend). As I say in the Telegraph today, this Budget is a difficult balancing act for the Chancellor. On the one hand, he has some big-spenders to please, not least the Prime Minister, who is adamant that the Conservative party’s days of austerity have come to an end. On the

The best thing that can be said about the government’s latest anti-obesity scheme is that it’s cheap. For now. The new HeadsUp app, which will track people’s diet and exercise regimes and reward them with cinema tickets, clothes vouchers and the like, has a price tag of £3 million. This is peanuts in public health terms. The NHS burns through £3 million every eight minutes. It amounts to 4p for every man, woman and child in the UK. The bad news is that it is only a pilot scheme. If bribing people with their own money is seen to ‘improve rates of physical activity and inspire healthier eating’, as the Office

Is Rishi Sunak losing his battle within the Cabinet to promote fiscal responsibility? We’ll find out this week, when he unveils his Budget and three-year Spending Review on Wednesday, but there were hints this morning that more spending is coming down the track. Speaking to Andrew Marr on BBC One, Sunak laid out the principles that guided his Budget process this time round: ‘Strong investment in public services, driving economic growth by investing in infrastructure, innovation and skills, giving businesses confidence and then supporting working families. Those are the ingredients of what makes a stronger Budget and that’s what we will deliver next week.’ This is not the language of

In a 368-page document published this week, the government announced its strategy to cut emissions to net zero by 2050 and confirmed its target for all electricity to come from low carbon sources by 2035.  It’s difficult to imagine worse timing for the release. An energy crisis is exposing the failures of decades of massive state meddling in the market. Insulate Britain have been picnicking on the M4 and M25. And on Wednesday a leak of documents showed Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia are asking the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels. None of this has weakened the Prime Minister’s resolve, though that’s

Whisper it, but Rishi Sunak looks to be heading into the Budget next week with the public finances in a far better state than once predicted. The Office for National Statistics update on public sector net borrowing showed September’s total — £21.8 billion — coming in several billion pounds below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s official forecast and economists’ consensus. It fits a trend: total borrowing for 2021/22 is over £40 billion lower than expected, giving Sunak far more leeway than he thought he’d have at the start of the year. On the whole, tax receipts have been higher than forecast, as growth (while somewhat lacklustre over the past few

Boris Johnson wants to turn your house green. This week, he published the plan for doing it. In fact, the strategy for delivering net zero carbon emissions is, in essence, to convert the whole economy — including your home — to electric power and then to deliver most of that power using offshore windfarms. We are rapidly approaching a time when wishful thinking collides with reality The fundamental problem with this approach, however, is what we will do when the wind isn’t blowing, or, just as importantly, when it unexpectedly stops blowing. The failure to address this issue upfront means that net zero is likely to fail, expensively. The stubborn refusal

Whatever happened to the inflation surge? Last month, when the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) surged to 3.2 per cent, the country started fretting about a return to the 1970s. This month’s CPI figure, though, has fallen to a not-very-1970s like 3.1 per cent. Forty five years ago inflation, on a slightly different measure, peaked at over 20 per cent. So are we really heading for an inflationary surge? It turns out that the biggest contribution to this month’s slight fall in CPI is in restaurant prices. This might come as a surprise to people running restaurants — yesterday the Food and Drink Federation complained of a ‘terrifying’ rise in the

Imagine you run an independent store on the high street. Your business has already been ravaged by repeated lockdowns, which boosted the likes of Amazon at your expense. You are already at a huge disadvantage to online retailers because of your fixed costs. At great risk, you have invested in setting up your own online operation – which obviously costs you a lot more per unit of sales than it costs the online giants. In your shift online you have effectively become shunted up a side street, while Amazon, eBay and the like occupy the prime spots on the high street. How, then, are you going to react to the

Are MPs underpaid? Yes, according to Sir Peter Bottomley, who declared that life on an MP’s salary of £82,000 can be ‘really grim’. In saying so, Bottomley succeeded in uniting his fellow MPs – who would rather not have to deal with a further round of anger at their pay and conditions – and the general public – who resent having to pay for their elected lords and masters in the first place. But the furious backlash doesn’t mean Bottomley isn’t right. In Parliament, as anywhere else, you get what you pay for. If we want a better class of MP, it’s time to splash the cash. Not everyone sees it this way, of

The health secretary has announced more money for the National Health Service. It’s a story we’ve heard time and time again – but this time the details are different. Sajid Javid has committed an additional £250 million for GP health practices to assist them in expanding their hours and upping the number of face-to-face appointments they offer. In-person appointments plummeted during lockdown and have never recovered: they are now hovering around 60 per cent, compared to 80 per cent pre-pandemic. So what’s new? In short, the money comes with more accountability. A league table is being created to rank surgeries on how many in-person appointments they offer. Patients will also

Compared with July, August’s GDP boost looks much healthier — but that’s not saying much. Originally thought to have stagnated at 0.1 per cent, the economy in July actually shrank by 0.1 per cent, according to the latest update from the Office for National Statistics. If inflationary pressures continue to surge, the Bank may have no choice but to act Still, August’s GDP increase of 0.4 per cent puts the economy back on the upwards trajectory, now estimated to sit 0.8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. Despite so-called ‘freedom day’ arriving halfway through July, people continued to socially distance in order to avoid being mandated back into their homes. A

Now that the Chancellor’s furlough scheme has come to an end, are employers rushing to lay off those workers whose wages have been paid, at least in part, by the government?  The good news for Rishi Sunak – and the taxpayer, who footed the bill for this multi-billion pound scheme – is that the early evidence suggests they are not: in the three months leading up to August, the headline unemployment rate dipped again. It is now down to 4.5 per cent, having peaked just over five per cent last winter. The picture in the labour market isn’t necessarily all rosy Figures from the Office for National Statistics will still take several months

International cooperation is alive and well – at least when it comes to raising taxes. One hundred and thirty six countries have now signed up to a global minimum corporation tax of 15 per cent, proposed by G7 countries in June and pushed heavily by the UK Treasury. This is another step forward for what is thought to be the biggest overhaul to the international tax system in a century. The installation of a corporate tax floor is part of a comprehensive effort to reform how multinational companies are taxed: that is, to more precisely target where profits are being made (instead of where products are being created). ​​Firms with