Money

Wolfgang Münchau

Is the euro area at risk of an inflation surge?

If you like a snapshot of a bang-on target, this is it: headline inflation in the euro area for May came in at 1.99 per cent on an annual basis, which gives a whole new meaning to close to, but below 2 per cent. The number itself, however, is entirely meaningless.  As ever, the more important number is the core rate of inflation, which excludes energy, food and alcohol, and which shows no sign of breaking out its range of around 1 per cent. But even the core rate is subject to some noise. For example, the pandemic-related cut in the VAT rate during the second half of last year

Ross Clark

Has Covid accelerated the cashless society?

Time is, I fear, running out. Running out, that is, to avoid handing to a small number of multinational corporations our right to buy and sell things. Running out to prevent governments and central banks helping themselves to our savings, by means of negative interest rates. The payments industry is closing in on its target of driving cash out of circulation and instigating cashless payments as the only way of doing business. That, at least, is the conclusion one might reach from reading a report by Worldpay: the Global Payments Report 2021. It claims that cash payments in UK shops in 2020 made up 13.4 per cent of total payments,

Susanne Mundschenk

France’s latest fiscal trade-off

France’s deficit is set to reach 9.4 per cent of GDP this year, more than last year, even though France’s first lockdown was more severe and lasted for a longer time. This may relate to accounting issues, as some spending is only reported this year even if it is related to last year. But these are details – the main issue is something else entirely. The journalist Dominique Seux wonders whether France has maxed out its spending capacity at the moment when environmental challenges require extraordinary efforts. Were France’s spending choices last year done with full awareness of how they would compromise future fiscal room for manoeuvre? France was always amongst the

Brexit Britain can capitalise on the breakdown in EU-Swiss talks

It is a leading player in finance, and it’s companies are giants in life sciences and consumer goods. There were already lots of similarities between the Swiss and British economies, except that they are quite a bit richer and more successful than we are. Now we have something else in common: we have both been frozen out of the European Union’s Single Market. But hold on. Isn’t there an opportunity there as well? In truth, this would be the perfect moment to offer the Swiss a deal that would work for both sides – a common market. The Swiss have always had a fractious relationship with the EU. It has

Katy Balls

Saving for a rainy day: building financial resilience

38 min listen

The past year has served as a reminder how quickly one’s personal circumstances can change. In uncertain times such as these, financial resilience is more important than ever. But whilst savings for some Brits have surged in the pandemic, it’s not been the case for everyone. 41pc of UK households could not last more than three months without their main source of income. If you are in a bad place, what are the best steps? Katy Balls is joined by Tracey Crouch, Conservative MP and former minister for sports, civil society and loneliness, who’s also been a leading campaigner on gambling reform; Bridget Phillipson, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury;

Ross Clark

Biden’s tax plan spells bad news for Ireland

Biden’s America, of course, is all about re-engaging with the world after four years of isolationism. But if you are the Irish finance minister, perhaps the new administration isn’t looking quite so cuddly at the moment.  Biden’s first big achievement in international cooperation looks like being a global minimum corporate tax rate. It seems that G7 nations are about to announce they have agreed on such a tax, set at 15 per cent. It will mean corporations paying a minimum of 15 per cent tax on their profits regardless of where they are based in the world, where they do business and where they pretend to do business.  Among those

Martin Vander Weyer

Who cares who runs the railways? We just want them to run on time

The long-awaited review of the railways by former British Airways executive Keith Williams chugged past the platform of public debate without creating much stir. Politicos noted that it had become ‘the Williams-Shapps Plan’, indicating an urge on the part of Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, in Tony Blair’s words, to be personally associated with eye-catching initiatives — in this case, especially those that have nothing to do with the issue of whether British holidaymakers will be allowed to fly abroad this summer. But the review’s core proposal — a new public body called Great British Railways that will control tracks, timetables and fares, and contract with private operators to run trains

Kate Andrews

Dominic Cummings’s explosive claim about the Bank of England

Amidst all the explosive claims made by Dominic Cummings during today’s select committee hearing, one towards the beginning of the seven-hour session seemed rather unintentional. When asked by Rebecca Long-Bailey MP about what economic assessments were made when considering the first lockdown, Cummings responded that there was no straight-forward ‘document floating around’ which laid out the ‘economic costs’. He then alleged that conversations were taking place about removing the Bank of England’s independence: ‘It was the case that the Bank of England, the senior officials in the Treasury, senior officials in the Cabinet Office were saying, you know, we have to think about the consequence of, if we do this

How to build more houses

Since the 1930s, bad planning has destroyed swathes of our most precious heritage while causing economic damage that, by some estimates, exceeds that of the second world war. We will end the disaster only if we learn from past mistakes. The current war about housing targets and ‘concreting over the South East’ is the latest in a long line of — generally successful — revolts against government housebuilding plans. In the 1940s, jeering protestors coined the name ‘Silkingrad’ for housing minister Lewis Silkin’s new town of Stevenage. In the 1980s, Nicholas Ridley’s controversial boost in housebuilding was reversed when he was replaced by Chris Patten. And in 2010 the backlash

Ross Clark

The boiler ban fiasco and the true cost of net zero

Politically it must have seemed an easy promise for Theresa May to make in the dying days of her premiership: to commit Britain to a legally-binding target of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, rather than the 80 per cent reduction previously stipulated in the Climate Change Act. It was the summer of 2019 and Extinction Rebellion protests had taken place with surprisingly little counter-protest. David Attenborough’s TV documentary was received warmly by the press, and polls indicated that the public appeared to supported action on climate change – according to a YouGov poll in December 2018 two thirds of the population stated they did not believe the risks of

The EU is overplaying its hand on Northern Ireland

The EU’s decision to take control of the vaccine programme was hardly a roaring success. The eurozone’s economy remains stuck in recession. And the EU’s foreign policy is a mess, as events in Belarus have just made clear.  Still, despite the evidence that she isn’t very good at managing anything, no one can argue that the European Union’s president Ursula von der Leyen lacks self-confidence. Last night, she made it clear there could be no possible compromise over the Northern Ireland protocol. The trouble is that she could easily bring the whole trade deal between the EU and the UK crashing down. As so often, the EU is overplaying its

From Suffolk to Essex: why moving east makes sense

You might remember, back before Covid, when life was ‘normal’, at three o’clock on a Friday afternoon, the Volkswagens, Audis and Jaguars clogging up the pavements of Kensington, Parsons Green and Hammersmith would one by one nudge out, and make for the Great West Road, duly clotting the A4 like a fast-food addict’s aorta. To all points west they would go – to the dewy hamlets of Hampshire, to the honeyed villages of the Cotswolds, to the pebbled beaches of Dorset’s Jurassic Coast, to the curvaceous nooks of Devon’s South Hams. But there is another way you can go, my friends, one which isn’t west. You can go east. And, boy,

James Forsyth

The future looks bleak for Tory free-marketeers

The free-market Tory right’s victory on the Australia trade deal obscures the fact that the economic direction of the party has turned against them since the Brexit vote. As I say in the Times today, this is a big-spending Tory government that believes in an active role for the state in fostering innovation and driving growth. As one cabinet minister puts it, ‘It is a kind of Faustian bargain. The Tory right defeated the One Nation Tories on Europe but had to become One Nation Tories on the economy.’ There are several reasons why Brexit hasn’t ushered in the shift to the right on economics that many hoped (or feared). The

Ross Clark

The post-Covid boom means inflation will be back

Amid the panic over the Indian variant this week it would have been easy to miss news that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) more than doubled in a month, from 0.7 per cent in March to 1.5 per cent in April. That is still below the Bank of England’s 2.0 per cent target, but could this be just the beginning? The signs from this month’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a survey of businesses carried out by IHS Markit – suggests strong inflationary pressures. Its index for inflation expectations has soared to 58 this month – with anything above 50 indicating that businesses expect inflation to rise. It is higher

Ross Clark

The rail revolution is nothing of the sort

The government says it is ending a quarter of a century of the ‘fragmentation’ of the railways by gathering all mainline services into an entity called Great British Railways. That will please some critics of privatisation, but has the government actually renationalised the railways, as the unions, the Labour party and – to judge by some opinion polls – the public want? No, but it might superficially look like it. Gone will be the plethora of liveries, along with names such as Arriva, Great Western Railway and East Coast. The familiar old British Rail symbol of an arrow pointing in two directions will return. But anyone calling for the common

Comedy gold: the economics of internet irony

If you’re looking for proof we live in a computer simulation, consider the farcical story of dogecoin. Named after an internet meme about a talking dog, the joke currency was created as a parody of bitcoin. Dogecoin has no practical uses, yet online investors have ploughed billions into it. ‘We thought it would just make the viral rounds on social media,’ said founder Jackson Palmer. Last week the valuation passed $68 billion — more than Kraft Heinz and Ford. Palmer is now worth several hundred million dollars. Not bad for a Twitter gag. Although it’s seven years old, dogecoin wasn’t a big deal until a few months ago, when supportive

Martin Vander Weyer

Is Farrow & Ball’s business model flaking?

The happiest thing that happens in May is the coming into leaf of my long beech hedge. The shift from brown to green symbolises, for me, an annual economic revival — of openings, reopenings and entrepreneurial optimism. This year, after April’s frosts on the end of a dismal winter, it was especially welcome. And as revival collides with new fears of ‘the Indian variant’, I’m clinging to optimism while watching for new-season winners and losers. In that spirit, I’ll make this column a collage of consumer themes. First — though I’m not sure what this symbolises — a friend tells me he celebrated relative freedom by driving to Bicester Village

Ross Clark

The problem with investing in ‘value’ stocks

For the first half of the pandemic a simple investment rule would have served you well: buy anything that was being plugged as a ‘tech’ stock – and dump nearly everything else. Lockdown ushered in a new era in which everything would be done online, rendering the traditional bricks and mortar economy. Since ‘Pfizer Monday’ on 9 November, when the results of the first phase 3 trials of Covid vaccine were made public, the opposite advice has served investors just as well: buy any bricks and mortar company that was dumped during the first phase and sell anything touted as a tech stock. The economy was going to spring back

The insanity of Britain’s housing market

On the day the Office for National Statistics announced a sharp rise in consumer price inflation, albeit to a still modest 1.5 per cent, we discovered that house prices have jumped by a staggering 10.2 per cent in the last year. The average house in England now costs £275,000, close to ten times the average annual income. In 1992, the average house cost three times the average income. A housing boom during a pandemic in the wake of the deepest recession in 300 years doesn’t make a lot of sense, but a few recent events can partially explain it. After three lockdowns, there is pent-up demand, including for houses. The